alex rios Archives | DraftBuddy.com

Last year I posted BABIP stats for hitters. BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play. I still have the database queries sitting here in a text file which just need a minor tweak or two to update them for 2011. So let’s do it then. Check the prior year post for details about BABIP and why it is useful in your fantasy baseball analysis.

Here are hitter BABIP stats from 2011, starting with the top 38 BABIP results, minimum 400 at-bats. The AVG is the player’s 2011 batting average.

+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player           | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Matt Kemp        |  601 | 0.324 | 0.380 |
| Adrian Gonzalez  |  630 | 0.338 | 0.380 |
| Emilio Bonifacio |  565 | 0.296 | 0.372 |
| Michael Bourn    |  656 | 0.294 | 0.369 |
| Michael Young    |  631 | 0.338 | 0.367 |
| Alex Avila       |  464 | 0.295 | 0.366 |
| Miguel Cabrera   |  572 | 0.344 | 0.365 |
| Hunter Pence     |  606 | 0.314 | 0.361 |
| Alex Gordon      |  611 | 0.303 | 0.358 |
| Dexter Fowler    |  481 | 0.266 | 0.354 |
| Jose Reyes       |  537 | 0.337 | 0.353 |
| Ryan Braun       |  563 | 0.332 | 0.350 |
| Jemile Weeks     |  406 | 0.303 | 0.350 |
| Joey Votto       |  599 | 0.309 | 0.349 |
| Andre Ethier     |  487 | 0.290 | 0.346 |
| Michael Morse    |  522 | 0.303 | 0.344 |
| Starlin Castro   |  674 | 0.307 | 0.344 |
| Victor Martinez  |  540 | 0.330 | 0.343 |
| Drew Stubbs      |  604 | 0.243 | 0.343 |
| Gerardo Parra    |  445 | 0.292 | 0.342 |
| Austin Jackson   |  591 | 0.249 | 0.340 |
| Jon Jay          |  455 | 0.297 | 0.340 |
| Freddie Freeman  |  571 | 0.282 | 0.339 |
| Howie Kendrick   |  537 | 0.285 | 0.338 |
| Peter Bourjos    |  502 | 0.271 | 0.338 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury  |  660 | 0.321 | 0.336 |
| Derek Jeter      |  546 | 0.297 | 0.336 |
| Casey Kotchman   |  500 | 0.306 | 0.335 |
| Jamey Carroll    |  452 | 0.290 | 0.332 |
| Melky Cabrera    |  658 | 0.305 | 0.332 |
| Cameron Maybin   |  515 | 0.264 | 0.331 |
| Matt Holliday    |  446 | 0.296 | 0.330 |
| Todd Helton      |  421 | 0.302 | 0.328 |
| Carlos Gonzalez  |  481 | 0.295 | 0.326 |
| Jhonny Peralta   |  525 | 0.299 | 0.325 |
| Dustin Pedroia   |  635 | 0.307 | 0.325 |
| Greg Dobbs       |  411 | 0.275 | 0.325 |
| Carlos Beltran   |  520 | 0.300 | 0.324 |

Here are the lowest 39 BABIP results from 2011, minimum 400 at-bats.

+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player              | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Vernon Wells        |  505 | 0.218 | 0.214 |
| Alex Rios           |  537 | 0.227 | 0.237 |
| Mark Teixeira       |  589 | 0.248 | 0.239 |
| Evan Longoria       |  483 | 0.244 | 0.239 |
| Adam Dunn           |  415 | 0.159 | 0.240 |
| Ian Kinsler         |  620 | 0.255 | 0.243 |
| Kurt Suzuki         |  460 | 0.237 | 0.244 |
| Casey McGehee       |  546 | 0.223 | 0.249 |
| Russell Martin      |  417 | 0.237 | 0.252 |
| Dan Uggla           |  600 | 0.233 | 0.253 |
| J.P. Arencibia      |  443 | 0.219 | 0.255 |
| Orlando Cabrera     |  450 | 0.238 | 0.259 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |  556 | 0.252 | 0.259 |
| Carlos Quentin      |  421 | 0.254 | 0.261 |
| Brent Morel         |  413 | 0.245 | 0.262 |
| Carlos Santana      |  552 | 0.239 | 0.263 |
| Adam Lind           |  499 | 0.251 | 0.265 |
| Logan Morrison      |  462 | 0.247 | 0.265 |
| Alfonso Soriano     |  475 | 0.244 | 0.266 |
| Mark Reynolds       |  534 | 0.221 | 0.266 |
| Martin Prado        |  551 | 0.260 | 0.266 |
| Carlos Pena         |  493 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Colby Rasmus        |  471 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Raul Ibanez         |  535 | 0.245 | 0.268 |
| John Buck           |  466 | 0.227 | 0.268 |
| Aaron Hill          |  520 | 0.246 | 0.268 |
| Miguel Olivo        |  477 | 0.224 | 0.270 |
| Aubrey Huff         |  521 | 0.246 | 0.271 |
| Ty Wigginton        |  401 | 0.242 | 0.271 |
| Justin Smoak        |  427 | 0.234 | 0.273 |
| Adrian Beltre       |  487 | 0.296 | 0.273 |
| J.J. Hardy          |  527 | 0.269 | 0.273 |
| David DeJesus       |  442 | 0.240 | 0.274 |
| Mark Trumbo         |  539 | 0.254 | 0.274 |
| Hideki Matsui       |  517 | 0.251 | 0.274 |
| Ryan Roberts        |  482 | 0.249 | 0.275 |
| Danny Valencia      |  564 | 0.246 | 0.275 |
| Jimmy Rollins       |  567 | 0.268 | 0.275 |
| Chris Young         |  567 | 0.236 | 0.275 |

Here are the 26 biggest positive differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Did these guys exceed expectations last season so we might expect a correction in 2012?

+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Player            | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif   |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Adrian Gonzalez   |   630 |    0.380 |     1759 |     0.304 | 0.077 |
| Casey Kotchman    |   500 |    0.335 |     1324 |     0.262 | 0.073 |
| Alex Gordon       |   611 |    0.358 |      899 |     0.289 | 0.070 |
| Hunter Pence      |   606 |    0.361 |     1794 |     0.304 | 0.057 |
| Jose Bautista     |   513 |    0.309 |     1275 |     0.256 | 0.053 |
| Emilio Bonifacio  |   565 |    0.372 |      810 |     0.319 | 0.052 |
| Melky Cabrera     |   658 |    0.332 |     1357 |     0.283 | 0.050 |
| Matt Kemp         |   601 |    0.380 |     1814 |     0.334 | 0.046 |
| Jose Reyes        |   537 |    0.353 |     1398 |     0.309 | 0.043 |
| Edwin Encarnacion |   481 |    0.292 |     1131 |     0.251 | 0.042 |
| Michael Young     |   631 |    0.367 |     1842 |     0.327 | 0.040 |
| David Ortiz       |   525 |    0.321 |     1475 |     0.281 | 0.040 |
| Jeff Francoeur    |   601 |    0.323 |     1646 |     0.284 | 0.038 |
| Michael Bourn     |   656 |    0.369 |     1608 |     0.331 | 0.037 |
| Brandon Phillips  |   610 |    0.322 |     1769 |     0.285 | 0.037 |
| Victor Martinez   |   540 |    0.343 |     1347 |     0.307 | 0.036 |
| Andre Ethier      |   487 |    0.346 |     1638 |     0.313 | 0.033 |
| Miguel Cabrera    |   572 |    0.365 |     1775 |     0.331 | 0.033 |
| Seth Smith        |   476 |    0.320 |      801 |     0.290 | 0.030 |
| Carlos Ruiz       |   410 |    0.308 |     1013 |     0.281 | 0.027 |
| Jhonny Peralta    |   525 |    0.325 |     1738 |     0.299 | 0.026 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury   |   660 |    0.336 |     1256 |     0.314 | 0.022 |
| Ben Zobrist       |   588 |    0.310 |     1240 |     0.290 | 0.020 |
| Dexter Fowler     |   481 |    0.354 |      898 |     0.335 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Braun        |   563 |    0.350 |     1865 |     0.330 | 0.020 |
| Ronny Cedeno      |   413 |    0.313 |     1025 |     0.293 | 0.019 |

Here are the 35 biggest negative differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Should we expect a reversal of fortune in 2012 for these players?

+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Player           | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif    |
+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Evan Longoria    |   483 |    0.239 |     1606 |     0.321 | -0.082 |
| Martin Prado     |   551 |    0.266 |     1277 |     0.338 | -0.072 |
| Alex Rios        |   537 |    0.237 |     1784 |     0.304 | -0.067 |
| Vernon Wells     |   505 |    0.214 |     1647 |     0.280 | -0.066 |
| Adam Dunn        |   415 |    0.240 |     1621 |     0.304 | -0.064 |
| Casey McGehee    |   546 |    0.249 |      989 |     0.313 | -0.064 |
| Ichiro Suzuki    |   677 |    0.295 |     2005 |     0.356 | -0.061 |
| Mark Teixeira    |   589 |    0.239 |     1784 |     0.296 | -0.057 |
| David DeJesus    |   442 |    0.274 |     1428 |     0.331 | -0.057 |
| Dan Uggla        |   600 |    0.253 |     1684 |     0.308 | -0.055 |
| Angel Pagan      |   478 |    0.285 |     1013 |     0.337 | -0.052 |
| Miguel Olivo     |   477 |    0.270 |     1090 |     0.322 | -0.052 |
| Ian Kinsler      |   620 |    0.243 |     1475 |     0.294 | -0.051 |
| Kevin Youkilis   |   431 |    0.296 |     1391 |     0.342 | -0.047 |
| Colby Rasmus     |   471 |    0.267 |      938 |     0.314 | -0.047 |
| Omar Infante     |   579 |    0.298 |      991 |     0.343 | -0.044 |
| Russell Martin   |   417 |    0.252 |     1389 |     0.295 | -0.043 |
| Mark Reynolds    |   534 |    0.266 |     1616 |     0.309 | -0.043 |
| Kelly Johnson    |   545 |    0.277 |     1435 |     0.319 | -0.042 |
| Raul Ibanez      |   535 |    0.268 |     1696 |     0.309 | -0.041 |
| Jayson Werth     |   561 |    0.286 |     1543 |     0.327 | -0.041 |
| Matt Wieters     |   500 |    0.276 |      800 |     0.317 | -0.041 |
| Jason Bartlett   |   553 |    0.292 |     1422 |     0.332 | -0.041 |
| Adam Lind        |   499 |    0.265 |     1482 |     0.305 | -0.040 |
| John Buck        |   466 |    0.268 |      965 |     0.306 | -0.038 |
| Orlando Cabrera  |   450 |    0.259 |     1811 |     0.297 | -0.038 |
| Kurt Suzuki      |   460 |    0.244 |     1595 |     0.279 | -0.035 |
| Albert Pujols    |   579 |    0.277 |     1679 |     0.311 | -0.034 |
| Josh Hamilton    |   487 |    0.317 |     1478 |     0.350 | -0.033 |
| Nelson Cruz      |   475 |    0.288 |      976 |     0.321 | -0.033 |
| Justin Upton     |   592 |    0.319 |     1377 |     0.351 | -0.032 |
| Cody Ross        |   405 |    0.279 |     1545 |     0.310 | -0.032 |
| Nick Markakis    |   641 |    0.300 |     1866 |     0.332 | -0.032 |
| Johnny Damon     |   582 |    0.284 |     1644 |     0.316 | -0.032 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera |   604 |    0.302 |     1256 |     0.333 | -0.032 |

Stock Up

Jason Bourgeois, OF, HOU – Bourgeois is the recipient of playing time due to injuries and he has made the most of it. Over the last week, Bourgeois has raked at a .500 clip while ripping off six bases. Throw in a handful of ribbies and a trio of runs and the Houston brass has a decision to make each day as to who is going to sit so Bourgeois can steal their at-bats.

Matt Joyce, OF, TB – Joyce is known as a gaps hitter. He’ll rack up a ton of doubles, but will likely not get a bunch of homeruns or hit for average. But the last seven days saw him hit .500/2/7 with four runs scored and even a stolen base. He has a lot of potential, but be aware that he is streaky and be ready to sit him when this hot streak wears off.

Erick Aybar, SS, LAA – After missing almost three weeks to injury, Aybar has turned it on this week. After posting a .367/0/5/5/4 line, he certainly is an intriguing roster possibility. Don’t look for power here, but the steals and batting average make for a nice middle infield bargain.

Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA – Trumbo is a highly regarded prospect who is simply a place holder for Kendrys Morales and his recovering leg. But Trumbo has decided he wants to stake his claim to Morales’ job and has put up a .400/3/8 mark on the week. In a keeper league, Trumbo is a must have. In a re-draft league, he is a solid play until Morales finally returns.

Nate McLouth, OF, ATL – The Nate McLouth who played for Atlanta the last season and a half seems to be gone and “Pittsburgh Nate” has returned. Though he is stuck near the bottom of Atlanta’s batting order, McLouth is putting it together again. He hit .429/2/4/6 last week and is a good buy low candidate.

John Buck, C, FLA – Buck is hitting for power and average with a .333/2/6/6 mark over the last week. The average isn’t likely to stay high, but you’ll get a good dose of power from the Marlins’ backstop.

Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – Ibanez is a professional hitter, no matter how old he is. This guy can hit and is in the middle of one of his notable hot streaks. Latch on and see if he can continue the .400/2/5/5 for another week.

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC – Cabrera seems to be part of the surprising Royals hit parade. He hit .364/1/6/5/1 over the last week and will get playing time as long as he’s hot. As the Royals are calling up their youngsters, the veterans who don’t produce will sit, so watch Cabrera’s production carefully.

Alex Rios, OF, CWS – After starting the season’s first four weeks with a miserable .158/0/4 line, Rios is starting to figure it out. This guy is a top talent and will still pile up 20 homers and 30 steals on the season. If you can grab him now, you’ll still get most of those as he’s strung together .316/3/4/4/1 over the last seven days.

Vance Worley, SP, PHI – Worley tossed two gems as a fill in for the injured Joe Blanton. For an occasional spot start, Worley is a nice play, but he’s not nearly as good as the 2-0 record with 12 K’s, a 0.75 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP that he posted against two weak offenses.

Stock Down

Adam LaRoche, 1B, WAS – LaRoche is scuffling to a tune of .150/0/1 over the last week. He’s a notoriously slow starter and seems to be hitting an exceptionally rough patch right now. He’s the kind of hitter you want to target in early July to see if he can go on his annual late season tear.

Yunel Escobar, SS, TOR – Escobar has been bad since the beginning of the 2010 season, but this last week has seen him hit the depths of .130/0/1. There doesn’t seem to be a physical problem with Escobar, leading one to believe something is wrong with his approach to the game. He’s not someone that is recommended as a buy low unless he will cost you nothing.

Jorge Posada, C, NYY – The creaky-kneed Posada isn’t worth a whole lot with his bat. Of course he is hitting in the Yankees lineup and still qualifies at catcher, but unless he starts producing, he just isn’t a useful piece. The last week saw him go .227/0/2 so until he starts to hit, you can sit him on your bench or release him if you have a good backup option.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, DET – Ordonez is a shell of his former self before the injuries ravaged his body. The power stroke is gone and now he is just a .300-hitting outfielder with no speed, which isn’t very helpful to fantasy teams. Last week Mags hit .200/1/3, so don’t run out and buy him unless he really turns it around.

James Loney, 1B, LAD – Loney was never your traditional power-hitting first baseman, but now things have become so bad that he’s platooning with rookie Jerry Sands. Loney hit .267/0/1 last week and isn’t likely to help your team the rest of the way so cut bait.

BABIP Stats For Hitters: 2011

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Bourgeois, Aybar, Trumbo, McLouth