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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Tuesday September 11

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Oakland Athletics are facing a RHP on road (Alex Cobb BAL who has faced 653 batters). On FanDuel the Athletics are currently putting up 2.43 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Alex Cobb is currently allowing 117% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.85 (2.43 x 117%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Athletics RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 653 2.43 x 117% 2.85 +0.42 1.84 x 117% 2.16 +0.32
Red Sox LHP at home Ryan Borucki TOR 310 2.60 x 105% 2.73 +0.13 1.94 x 106% 2.06 +0.12
Mariners RHP at home Bryan Mitchell SDP 256 1.99 x 130% 2.58 +0.59 1.54 x 127% 1.95 +0.42
Braves LHP on road Andrew Suarez SFG 574 2.32 x 106% 2.47 +0.15 1.79 x 108% 1.93 +0.13
Twins RHP at home Sonny Gray NYY 551 2.32 x 106% 2.46 +0.14 1.76 x 105% 1.85 +0.09
Rays RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 388 2.13 x 111% 2.37 +0.24 1.63 x 113% 1.83 +0.20
Royals RHP at home Dylan Covey CHW 447 2.07 x 113% 2.34 +0.27 1.59 x 111% 1.77 +0.17
Brewers LHP on road Jose Quintana CHC 629 2.20 x 101% 2.22 +0.03 1.68 x 101% 1.69 +0.01
Nationals RHP on road Nick Pivetta PHI 614 2.12 x 105% 2.21 +0.10 1.61 x 105% 1.69 +0.07
Indians RHP on road Tyler Glasnow TBR 368 2.17 x 102% 2.22 +0.05 1.65 x 99% 1.63 -0.02
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen MIN – 2.18 x 100% 2.18 +0.00 1.65 x 100% 1.65 +0.00
Phillies RHP at home Tanner Roark WSN 715 2.19 x 99% 2.17 -0.02 1.66 x 100% 1.66 +0.00
Diamondbacks RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 298 2.03 x 107% 2.17 +0.15 1.54 x 107% 1.65 +0.11
Angels TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TEX – 2.16 x 100% 2.16 +0.00 1.64 x 100% 1.64 +0.00
Orioles RHP at home Mike Fiers OAK 632 2.22 x 96% 2.12 -0.09 1.69 x 98% 1.66 -0.03
Rockies RHP at home Zack Greinke ARI 732 2.36 x 87% 2.05 -0.31 1.80 x 89% 1.60 -0.20
Cubs RHP at home Jhoulys Chacin MIL 705 2.23 x 91% 2.03 -0.20 1.69 x 91% 1.54 -0.15
Padres LHP on road Marco Gonzales SEA 608 1.92 x 101% 1.95 +0.03 1.50 x 103% 1.55 +0.05
Rangers TBD on road TBD/Bullpen LAA – 1.93 x 100% 1.93 +0.00 1.47 x 100% 1.47 +0.00
Cardinals RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 434 2.03 x 93% 1.88 -0.15 1.55 x 94% 1.47 -0.09
Mets RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 622 1.84 x 98% 1.81 -0.03 1.41 x 98% 1.38 -0.03
Pirates RHP on road Miles Mikolas STL 708 2.13 x 82% 1.76 -0.38 1.64 x 86% 1.40 -0.23
White Sox RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 501 2.03 x 85% 1.73 -0.31 1.56 x 87% 1.36 -0.20
Giants RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL 645 1.80 x 82% 1.48 -0.32 1.41 x 82% 1.16 -0.25
Blue Jays LHP on road Chris Sale BOS 566 2.09 x 64% 1.33 -0.76 1.59 x 65% 1.04 -0.56
Marlins RHP on road Jacob deGrom NYM 734 1.92 x 64% 1.23 -0.69 1.48 x 67% 1.00 -0.49

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Phillies RHP at home Erick Fedde WSN 142 2.19 x 128% 2.80 +0.61 1.66 x 128% 2.12 +0.46
Dodgers RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 627 2.41 x 112% 2.70 +0.29 1.81 x 111% 2.01 +0.20
Astros RHP on road Jordan Zimmermann DET 468 2.33 x 109% 2.55 +0.21 1.76 x 110% 1.95 +0.18
Nationals RHP on road Jake Arrieta PHI 641 2.12 x 100% 2.11 +0.00 1.61 x 99% 1.60 -0.01
Reds LHP at home Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 233 2.40 x 81% 1.95 -0.46 1.81 x 83% 1.50 -0.30
Tigers LHP at home Framber Valdez HOU 80 2.13 x 58% 1.24 -0.89 1.64 x 59% 0.96 -0.68

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday August 29

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP at home (Kohl Stewart MIN who has faced 60 batters). On FanDuel the Indians are currently putting up 2.52 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Kohl Stewart is currently allowing 125% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.16 (2.52 x 125%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home Kohl Stewart MIN 60 2.52 x 125% 3.16 +0.64 1.89 x 125% 2.36 +0.47
Yankees RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 645 2.58 x 109% 2.81 +0.23 1.94 x 108% 2.08 +0.15
Blue Jays RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 602 2.11 x 116% 2.46 +0.35 1.61 x 116% 1.87 +0.26
Twins RHP on road Adam Plutko CLE 219 2.01 x 120% 2.41 +0.40 1.53 x 118% 1.81 +0.28
Brewers LHP on road Matt Harvey CIN 522 2.20 x 107% 2.36 +0.16 1.69 x 107% 1.81 +0.12
Phillies LHP at home Gio Gonzalez WSN 621 2.29 x 103% 2.36 +0.07 1.71 x 103% 1.76 +0.05
Rangers LHP at home Alex Wood LAD 554 2.50 x 90% 2.26 -0.24 1.88 x 91% 1.72 -0.17
Braves TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.19 x 100% 2.19 +0.00 1.66 x 100% 1.66 +0.00
Giants RHP at home Zack Godley ARI 653 2.11 x 102% 2.16 +0.05 1.61 x 101% 1.63 +0.02
Orioles LHP at home Ryan Borucki TOR 262 2.01 x 105% 2.12 +0.11 1.56 x 106% 1.66 +0.10
Dodgers LHP on road Mike Minor TEX 526 2.00 x 106% 2.12 +0.12 1.51 x 106% 1.60 +0.09
White Sox LHP on road CC Sabathia NYY 542 2.16 x 93% 2.01 -0.15 1.66 x 94% 1.56 -0.11
Nationals RHP on road Jake Arrieta PHI 594 2.10 x 96% 2.01 -0.08 1.60 x 96% 1.53 -0.07
Reds RHP at home Freddy Peralta MIL 283 2.14 x 91% 1.94 -0.20 1.63 x 87% 1.41 -0.22
Cardinals RHP at home Trevor Williams PIT 563 2.02 x 91% 1.84 -0.18 1.55 x 92% 1.42 -0.13
Rays LHP on road Sean Newcomb ATL 591 2.01 x 92% 1.84 -0.17 1.55 x 91% 1.41 -0.14
Pirates RHP on road Miles Mikolas STL 654 2.19 x 80% 1.76 -0.43 1.67 x 84% 1.40 -0.27
Diamondbacks RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 343 2.07 x 76% 1.57 -0.51 1.57 x 77% 1.21 -0.36

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Cubs LHP at home Jason Vargas NYM 293 2.57 x 133% 3.43 +0.86 1.94 x 132% 2.56 +0.62
Red Sox RHP at home Trevor Richards MIA 415 2.53 x 100% 2.54 +0.01 1.92 x 100% 1.92 +0.00
Padres RHP at home Erasmo Ramirez SEA 111 1.85 x 122% 2.26 +0.41 1.42 x 122% 1.74 +0.31
Athletics LHP on road Dallas Keuchel HOU 708 2.43 x 91% 2.22 -0.21 1.84 x 93% 1.71 -0.13
Tigers LHP on road Danny Duffy KCR 661 2.01 x 107% 2.15 +0.14 1.54 x 107% 1.65 +0.11
Mariners LHP on road Joey Lucchesi SDP 416 2.03 x 100% 2.03 +0.00 1.57 x 100% 1.58 +0.01
Royals RHP at home Michael Fulmer DET 488 1.95 x 103% 2.01 +0.06 1.50 x 102% 1.54 +0.04
Marlins LHP on road David Price BOS 611 2.08 x 92% 1.91 -0.17 1.59 x 93% 1.48 -0.11
Astros RHP at home Trevor Cahill OAK 366 2.08 x 85% 1.78 -0.31 1.58 x 85% 1.35 -0.23
Mets RHP on road Alec Mills CHC 28 2.34 x 42% 0.97 -1.36 1.76 x 42% 0.74 -1.02

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Sunday August 12

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a LHP at home (Martin Perez TEX who has faced 252 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Martin Perez is currently allowing 134% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.42 (2.55 x 134%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees LHP at home Martin Perez TEX 252 2.55 x 134% 3.42 +0.87 1.92 x 135% 2.60 +0.68
Red Sox RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 520 2.38 x 123% 2.94 +0.56 1.80 x 123% 2.22 +0.42
Dodgers RHP on road Chad Bettis COL 433 2.39 x 118% 2.82 +0.42 1.80 x 116% 2.09 +0.29
Rockies LHP at home Rich Hill LAD 341 2.58 x 97% 2.50 -0.08 1.98 x 97% 1.92 -0.05
Cardinals RHP on road Jakob Junis KCR 530 2.16 x 114% 2.47 +0.31 1.64 x 114% 1.88 +0.23
Astros TBD at home TBD/Bullpen SEA – 2.43 x 100% 2.43 +0.00 1.85 x 100% 1.85 +0.00
Indians RHP on road Dylan Covey CHW 358 2.09 x 115% 2.41 +0.32 1.59 x 113% 1.80 +0.21
Athletics TBD on road TBD/Bullpen LAA – 2.37 x 100% 2.37 +0.00 1.79 x 100% 1.79 +0.00
Diamondbacks RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 515 2.06 x 111% 2.28 +0.22 1.56 x 110% 1.71 +0.15
Mets LHP on road Wei-Yin Chen MIA 388 1.97 x 116% 2.27 +0.31 1.49 x 114% 1.70 +0.21
Blue Jays RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 268 2.30 x 99% 2.27 -0.03 1.75 x 97% 1.69 -0.06
Nationals LHP on road Cole Hamels CHC 549 1.99 x 110% 2.20 +0.20 1.51 x 109% 1.65 +0.14
Rays RHP on road Marcus Stroman TOR 396 1.96 x 109% 2.12 +0.17 1.51 x 107% 1.62 +0.11
Reds RHP at home Zack Godley ARI 578 2.13 x 100% 2.14 +0.00 1.62 x 99% 1.60 -0.01
Braves RHP at home Chase Anderson MIL 511 2.10 x 99% 2.07 -0.03 1.60 x 98% 1.57 -0.03
White Sox RHP at home Carlos Carrasco CLE 526 2.12 x 95% 2.01 -0.11 1.63 x 97% 1.57 -0.06
Angels RHP at home Trevor Cahill OAK 297 2.39 x 84% 2.01 -0.38 1.80 x 84% 1.52 -0.28
Mariners LHP on road Dallas Keuchel HOU 627 2.16 x 90% 1.94 -0.22 1.66 x 91% 1.52 -0.14
Royals RHP at home Luke Weaver STL 528 1.86 x 104% 1.93 +0.07 1.43 x 104% 1.50 +0.06
Giants RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 314 2.13 x 87% 1.85 -0.27 1.62 x 89% 1.44 -0.18
Pirates RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 296 2.23 x 79% 1.76 -0.47 1.70 x 81% 1.38 -0.32
Brewers LHP on road Sean Newcomb ATL 514 2.06 x 86% 1.77 -0.28 1.57 x 86% 1.34 -0.23
Rangers LHP on road CC Sabathia NYY 494 1.80 x 98% 1.75 -0.04 1.38 x 98% 1.36 -0.02
Padres RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 520 1.86 x 94% 1.75 -0.11 1.43 x 94% 1.34 -0.09
Phillies LHP on road Joey Lucchesi SDP 349 1.75 x 99% 1.74 -0.01 1.34 x 100% 1.34 +0.00
Twins LHP on road Matt Boyd DET 510 1.81 x 96% 1.73 -0.08 1.38 x 94% 1.31 -0.08
Cubs RHP at home Max Scherzer WSN 632 2.25 x 75% 1.68 -0.57 1.70 x 76% 1.29 -0.41
Marlins RHP at home Noah Syndergaard NYM 370 1.83 x 84% 1.53 -0.30 1.42 x 87% 1.23 -0.19
Tigers LHP at home Adalberto Mejia MIN 92 2.24 x 62% 1.39 -0.86 1.72 x 65% 1.11 -0.61
Orioles LHP at home Chris Sale BOS 550 2.10 x 65% 1.37 -0.73 1.62 x 67% 1.08 -0.54