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Indianapolis Colts Team Report

July 22, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

After a 10 year run with the San Francisco 49ers and having topped 1,000 rushing yards in eight of the past nine years, Frank Gore was signed in the offseason to lead the Indianapolis Colts rushing attack in 2015.

After a 10 year run with the San Francisco 49ers and having topped 1,000 rushing yards in eight of the past nine years, Frank Gore was signed in the offseason to lead the Indianapolis Colts rushing attack in 2015.

QB Andrew Luck

After a pair of solid if not spectacular seasons, Andrew Luck enjoyed a true coming out party in 2014 as he amassed career highs in completions (380), completion percentage (61.7%) and touchdown passes (40). And he continued to pad his fantasy stats with 273 rushing yards and three touchdowns, giving him 12 TD on the ground in three years. What’s in store for 2015? More of the same. While the Colts once again failed to adequately address the offensive line, Luck figures to be surrounded by even more offensive weaponry given the free agent signings of Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, the selection of speedy wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft and the return to health of tight end Dwayne Allen. And it is also nice that he gets six games against the Colts weak divisional opponents in the AFC South. It’s a two-man race between Luck and Aaron Rodgers to be the first quarterback taken in this year’s fantasy drafts and while we give Rodgers a slight edge, we wouldn’t criticize any Luck fans for grabbing him ahead of Rodgers.

RB Frank Gore

After a 10 year run with the 49ers and having topped 1,000 rushing yards in eight of the past nine years, Frank Gore was signed in the offseason to lead the Colts rushing attack in 2015. After splitting duties with Carlos Hyde last season, Gore could be in line for a workhorse type role in Indianapolis where he is joined on the depth chart by journeymen Dan Herron and Vick Ballard as well as rookie 6th round pick Josh Robinson. None of that trio have proven themselves as solid receivers out of the backfield, meaning Gore could once again emerge as a solid receiving threat after catching just 72 passes over the past four years with the 49ers. Of course, there are the not so insignificant issues of his advancing age (he turned 32 in May), his career workload (2,786 touches) and the Colts porous offensive line. While Gore’s situation and history of solid production signals RB1 status, we can’t ignore these three key issues. He rates as an upper tier RB2 who could sneak into RB1 territory if he gets enough use in the red zone, a possibility given his expected role as a receiver and Ahmad Bradshaw‘s six touchdown receptions in just 10 games in 2014.

RB Dan Herron

Released by the Bengals after being a 2012 6th round pick and unable to earn significant playing time with the Colts in 2013, Herron’s fantasy prospects entering the 2014 season were pretty much non-existent. However, an injury to Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson‘s ineffectiveness led to an increased role for Herron at the midpoint of last season and he proved reliable, gaining 351 rushing yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and scoring once. He also wasn’t half-bad as a receiver, gaining 173 yards on 21 receptions. And in his last six games, he averaged a respectable 8.4 PPG. If this sounds like a lukewarm endorsement, that’s because it is. The eye doesn’t lie. Herron is a middling talent whose only value comes as the leading candidate to emerge as Frank Gore’s main backup in 2015. However, we won’t be shocked if he loses that role by opening day. Monitor the Colts backup running back situation since whoever emerges as Gore’s backup is definitely worth taking a flyer on.

RB Vick Ballard

After posting 814 rushing yards as a rookie 5th round pick in 2013 despite not getting major touches until Week 7, Ballard missed all but one game of the 2013 season due to a torn ACL and all of 2014 due to a torn Achilles’. Not exactly a speedster or elusive playmaker before the injuries, Ballard will have a tough time cracking the Colts opening day roster. However, if he does, he could have fantasy appeal in 2015. Starting running back Frank Gore is 32, last season’s main backup Dan Herron is a middling talent and rookie 6th round pick Josh Robinson shapes up as a committee back. While Ballard’s injury woes may have zapped him of the talent necessary to compete in the NFL, he was productive as a rookie and he has an opportunity to emerge as the main backup on one of the league’s top offenses. That makes him worthy of keeping an eye on as the preseason progresses.

WR T.Y. Hilton

Mea culpa. Our read on Hilton last year was that he would struggle to reach the 138 targets he had in 2013 with both Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen back from injury and Hakeem Nicks having been added to the Colts receiving corps. Well, Wayne proved to be washed up, Allen couldn’t stay healthy and Nicks was a non-factor but Hilton still only managed 131 targets. However, he made them count, matching his 82 receptions from 2013 but increasing his receiving yards from 1,083 to 1,345 and his touchdowns from five to seven. Although Andre Johnson was signed in the offseason, Hilton is the Colts undisputed number one wide receiver whose target count should increase making him an even more consistent option than in 2014 when he reached double digit fantasy points in eight games. We like him as a low end WR1 whose only risk comes from his slender 5’10”, 185 pound frame.

WR Andre Johnson

After 12 years in Houston with the Texans, the 34-year old Johnson joins the Colts in 2015. Signed to a three-year, $21-million contract, he gets the opportunity to play with Andrew Luck, a far superior talent than the quarterbacks he played with in Houston. But will it add it up to a solid fantasy season? With a mid-July ADP as the 18th highest rated wide receiver being taken in the middle of the 4th round, fantasy owners seem to think so. We’re not so sure. Johnson caught just 58.2% of his targets last season while averaging a lowly 11.0 yards per reception, both figures his lowest since suffering through a 2-14 season with David Carr at quarterback back in 2005. The truth is that Johnson is little more than a possession receiver and red zone option at this point in his career making his fantasy value touchdown dependent since his upside is likely 900 yards receiving. And while Colts offense will outscore any of the Texans offenses that Johnson has played with in recent seasons, why exactly are we predicting a touchdown explosion for a player that has caught 14 touchdowns over the last four years? With a pair of solid pass catching tight ends and a wide receiver depth chart that runs six deep with legitimate NFL talent, Johnson rates as an upper tier WR3.

WR Donte Moncrief

Last year, we summed up Moncrief’s fantasy prospects as “right place, wrong time”. And that axiom holds true once again in 2015. Given precious little playing time as a rookie 3rd round pick, Moncrief put his outstanding physical prowess on display when given an opportunity, catching 32 of his 49 targets for 444 yards and three touchdowns. With solid size at 6’2″ and 226 pounds to go along with 4.4-40 speed and some run after the catch ability, Moncrief figured to be on a pile of 2015 breakout lists as this rookie season came to a close. Then the Colts signed Andre Johnson in free agency and used a 1st round pick on Phillip Dorsett. That pretty much ended any potential breakout opportunity for Moncrief. We love his potential in dynasty leagues but he has little value in redraft formats.

WR Phillip Dorsett

Ah, the rich get richer. Seemingly well stocked at the wide receiver position but facing a potentially tough contract negotiation with T.Y. Hilton as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, the Colts shocked the league by selecting Miami-Florida wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft. Possessing blazing speed (4.33 40 time), the 5’10”, 185 pound Dorsett is a replica of Hilton and figures to earn regular playing time as a slot receiver at some point during his rookie season. While we like Dorsett’s dynasty prospects, especially if the Colts fail to come to an agreement with Hilton, his fantasy appeal in redraft formats is low given the presence of Hilton and Andre Johnson in the starting lineup, as well as the team’s reliance on two tight end formations (although we expect more there wide receiver sets in 2015). That spells inconsistent usage making Dorsett little more than a late round flyer.

WR Duron Carter

After a pair of solid seasons in the CFL, Duron Carter will get a look in the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts in 2015. Pursued by several teams, the talented 6’5″, 204 pound CFL refugee appeared to have a chance to start as an NFL rookie with Reggie Wayne’s expected departure. However, the Colts added Andre Johnson and Vincent Brown in free agency before using their 1st round pick on Miami-Florida speedster Phillip Dorsett. To earn regular playing time, Carter will need to beat out impressive 2nd year player Donte Moncrief, Dorsett and Brown to emerge as the Colts main backup. His most likely role is as an occasional red zone threat which renders him not fantasy worthy in 2015. He has some value in dynasty formats.

TE Dwayne Allen

Despite missing three full games last year and not being targeted in three others, Allen still managed to produce 87.5 fantasy points (14th amongst tight ends) and average 7.3 PPG (9th best). While those numbers are impressive, there are three big risks with Allen. One is that he misses time (18 missed games over the past two years). The second is that he is occasionally left out of the Colts offensive game plan (in 28 career games he has had three or fewer targets 14 times). The third is that he is heavily reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy points (48 of his 87.5 points last year came from touchdowns). Nonetheless, Allen produces as a lower tier TE1 when healthy and in three years has been a touchdown magnet with 12 scores in 118 career targets. The other issue is the presence of Coby Fleener, a better receiver but much poorer blocker. Since we expect Allen to get the majority of playing time at tight end and given his red zone pedigree, we rate Allen as a bottom end TE1 who possesses some breakout potential.

TE Coby Fleener

Since being taken early in the 2nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft, Fleener has improved his target count, receptions, yards and touchdowns in three straight seasons, finishing last season as the 6th ranked fantasy tight end with 51 receptions for 774 yards and eight touchdowns. Playing in a Colts high powered offense led by Andrew Luck, what’s not to like, right? Well, let’s get on the brakes pretty hard. First off, of Fleener’s 125.4 fantasy points from a year ago, 59.5 (or 47.5%) came in the four games that Dwayne Allen missed or barely played. Second, with the additions of Andre Johnson, 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett and 6’5″ CFL refugee Duron Carter, Fleener’s place in the Colts receiving pecking order figures to take a big hit this season. Finally, with Allen healthy coupled with the plethora of receiving options, the Colts could very well decide that it makes more sense to have Allen, a far superior blocker, on the field than Fleener. While Fleener is an above average receiver, we expect his role to be reduced and his three year run of increasing productivity to come to a halt in 2015. He is worth taking a flyer on as a lower tier TE2.

Also see: Indianapolis Colts IDP Team Report · Houston Texans Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Moving Up, Moving Down: Week 3 – Injuries A Plenty

September 16, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Indianapolis Colts Running Back Ahmad Bradshaw (44) in action during a Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. September 15, 2014; Photographer: MSA/Icon Sportswire

Technically still the backup to Trent Richardson, Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw is doing a lot more with less, and surpasses T-Rich in fantasy value right now. Photo: Icon Sportswire

QUARTERBACKS

MOVING UP

Philip Rivers, Chargers
When you throw for 284 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against the league’s top secondary, you get the Moving Up treatment. Better yet for Rivers owners, the team’s rushing attack is a question mark with Ryan Mathews expected to miss multiple games, plus the Chargers face a soft schedule over the next several weeks.

Kirk Cousins, Redskins
RGIII is out and Cousins is in, maybe for longer than most expect. He was superlative off the bench this week, abusing the Jaguars secondary by completing 22 of his 33 passes for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Unfortunately, DeSean Jackson may also be out for some time with a sprained shoulder.

MOVING DOWN

Robert Griffin III, Redskins
Moving Down two weeks in a row. RGIII was here last week in recognition that the team’s effort to curtail his running was negatively impacting his fantasy production. A dislocated ankle injury suffered in Week 2 gets him here again this week, and this injury appears serious resulting in an extended absence.

Tony Romo, Cowboys
Let’s see. Lots of downfield passing, 37 attempts and a loss in Week 1. Ball control and short passes in a Week 2 win over the Titans. What’s in store for Week 3?

RUNNING BACKS

MOVING UP

Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas, Saints
With Mark Ingram expected to miss a month with an injured hand, Robinson figures to take over as the team’s running back on early downs with Thomas also seeing more carries out of the backfield in addition to his receiving role. With the byes approaching, both players are worth adding as fill-ins.

Darren Sproles, Saints
The preseason read on Sproles was that he would see far fewer touches in Philly than he had in New Orleans and that he had lost a step in 2013. So much for that. Sproles had 15 touch and a score in Week 1 and followed that up with 11 touches and a score in Week 2 while producing 263 total yards of offense. Simply put, if Sproles gets 12-13 touches a week, you can be pretty sure one of those touches will result in a long gain or a touchdown making him a viable low end RB2.

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
The Bengals said they were going to get Hill more involved in Week 2 after he carried the ball just four times in the season opener, and they delivered. He carried the ball 15 times for 74 yards and a touchdown as the Bengals ran roughshod over the Falcons. Better yet for Hill owners, the Bengals are playing stout defense and leading wide receiver A.J. Green is out until at least Week 5, with an increased emphasis on the running game likely.

Donald Brown, Chargers
With Ryan Mathews out and Danny Woodhead ill-suited to handle the lead role, Brown is looking at between 12-15 touches per game. If he is the player we saw last season, he can help you. If he is the player he was during his first four years in the league, he can’t help you. Yes, that’s a lukewarm endorsement.

Bobby Rainey, Bucs
With Doug Martin out, Rainey got the start against the Rams and didn’t disappoint, carrying the ball 22 times for 144 yards and catching three passes for another 30 yards. The truth is that Rainey hasn’t proven he can produce on a consistent basis but given his performance this week, he has carved out a larger role in the Bucs backfield and reduced the urgency for Tampa Bay to get Martin back in the lineup.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
Bradshaw is getting the passing down work, the goal line work and spelling Trent Richardson on a regular basis. He might technically be the backup in Indianapolis but he has more fantasy value than T-Rich.

MOVING DOWN

Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
I really hate to be the, “I told you so” guy, but this one is low hanging fruit. Take your pick – Gerhart’s overall lack of skill, an ankle injury or the Jags sad sack offensive line. Some combo of those three issues caused Gerhart to rush for just 42 yards on 18 carries in Week 1 and he followed that up this week with a seven carry, eight yard performance against the Redskins. As I mentioned to a friend in the preseason, you just know that some combination of factors will transpire to cause Gerhart to underperform his optimistic preseason fantasy ADP. And sure enough, he is headed down that path.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers
Quite possibly out for the year with an MCL sprain. So much for Mathews proving his ability to stay healthy in 2013 by appearing in all 16 games. At best, he misses a bunch of games and comes back as part of a timeshare for the balance of the season. Remember that Mathews is in a contract year with Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown under contract for next season.

Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins
Out for 6-8 weeks. While Moreno was a standout last season and in Week 1, this is a reminder that he is also a player that has failed to remain healthy on a consistent basis throughout much of his career.

WIDE RECEIVERS

MOVING UP

Josh Gordon, Browns
When last year’s top fantasy wide receiver has his suspension reduced from 16 games to 10, he tops the Moving Up list. Gordon should be owned in all leagues, bar none.

Harry Douglas, Falcons
The Falcons play Thursday, Roddy White might miss the game with a hamstring injury and Douglas has 15 targets in two games. It’s easy to forget that Douglas topped 1,000 receiving yards last season while White and Julio Jones each missed time.

Brian Quick, Rams
While Quick doesn’t possess much upside given the sorry state of the Rams offense, he is their clear cut leading wide receiver with 18 targets in two games which is 13 more than the next most targeted Rams receiver. And he’s been efficient, catching 14 of those targets for 173 yards. The ceiling isn’t really high but Quick has an outside chance to top 1,000 receiving yards with 5-6 touchdowns.

Julian Edelman, Patriots
More sold on him now than at any point in his career. His 15 targets in two games leads the Patriots wide receiver with Kenbrell Thompkins next with 10 and he was inactive in Week 2. Edelman rates as an upper tier WR3 the rest of the way.

James Jones, Raiders
Rod Streater is expected to miss time, the Raiders stink and their rushing attack is non-existent so we can expect plenty of passing. And Jones is their only remotely reliable wide receiver. He had a pretty good game in the stats department Sunday.

Mohamed Sanu, Bengals
Both A.J. Green and Marvin Jones won’t return until Week 5 at the earliest. Sanu is a must start this week although the Bengals Week 4 bye means his uptick in value is likely only for a short period of time.

MOVING DOWN

A.J. Green, Bengals
With a possible case of turf toe and a Week 4 bye, don’t expect to see A.J. in the Bengals lineup until Week 5.

Torrey Smith, Ravens
With just 10 targets in two games compared to 25 for Steve Smith (no, that’s not a typo), Torrey is clearly playing second fiddle in the Ravens passing attack.

Jarrett Boykin, Packers and Brandon Gibson, Dolphins
Not all third wide receivers are created equal. Most fantasy owners were not counting on Gibson entering the season but Boykin had more breakout potential. Unfortunately, both of these veterans appear to have been passed on the depth chart by a pair of 2nd round picks, Davante Adams in Green Bay and Jarvis Landry in Miami.

Riley Cooper, Eagles
Cooper has just 10 targets in two games which is only two more than rookie Jordan Mathews. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out where this is headed.

TIGHT ENDS

MOVING UP

Antonio Gates, Chargers
As it turns out, Gates’ 77 reception, 872 yard, four touchdown season from a year ago wasn’t a fluke. Perhaps it was the touchdown count (his lowest since his rookie season in 2003) that lulled us into thinking he was a spent force at 34 years of age. After catching all seven of his targets this week for 96 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks, the consensus choice as the league’s top secondary, Gates has 13 receptions for 177 yards and three scores in two games.

Delanie Walker, Titans
I wasn’t convinced after Week 1 due to his low target count (just four) but after Walker’s 10 receptions on 14 targets for 142 yards and a touchdown this week against the Cowboys, count me in.

Larry Donnell, Giants
Donnell doesn’t seem to have special talent but with 17 targets in two weeks, he does seem to be a key cog in the Giants game plan. Since he has caught 12 of those targets for 137 yards and a touchdown, Donnell is definitely Moving Up.

Niles Paul, Redskins
Subbing in for an injured Jordan Reed, Paul caught all four of his targets in Week 1 for 86 yards. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the Moving Up treatment due to his low targets. That changed in Week 2 as he was targeted a healthy 11 times, catching eight passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. With the Redskins stating that Reed was a “long shot” to play in Week 2 and Paul performing well, we expect him to get a healthy majority of targets in Week 3.

MOVING DOWN

Ladarius Green, Chargers
See above – Antonio Gates. Looks like the breakout season is at least a year away.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 29, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Top ranked running backs for fantasy football, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Photos: Icon Sportswire

Is Jamaal Charles the top ranked running back in fantasy football? There are some red flags. Maybe LeSean McCoy? Truth be told there are five top workhorse running backs that should be the first five picks in most formats in 2014. Photos: Icon Sportswire

While the NFL has become more of a passing league, fantasy football championships are still heavily influenced by an owner’s ability to secure two solid running backs in his or her starting lineup.

But with teams relying more on their passing attacks than ever before and moving to committee approaches at the running back position, the number of workhorse running backs has been drastically reduced in recent years.

In 2014, there are fewer than 10 workhorse running backs and some of the players that fall within that category have injury concerns which reduce their fantasy appeal. That being said, just about any workhorse running back is worth gambling on given the short supply.

This season features five solid options at the top of the running back rankings, and these players should be the first players taken in all formats. After that, there are several solid options worth gambling on but the supply of players that have confidence inspiring roles and resumés begins to end after about 20 names with another five or six players having solid value given their current ADP.

But there’s a big difference between solid value meaning, “worth gambling on” than solid value meaning they give you solid comfort they will produce for the entire season.

Tier 1
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
1
Jamaal Charles
KC 6 1.03
2
LeSean McCoy
PHI 7 1.02
3
Adrian Peterson
MIN 10 1.04
4
Matt Forte
CHI 9 1.06
5
Eddie Lacy
GB 9 1.05

While you can quibble with the order of these five running backs, you can’t argue with the notion that they should be the first five players off the board in every draft. Bar none. At the top, the Chiefs depleted offensive line raises some concern as to whether Charles should remain the top ranked running back ahead of McCoy and Peterson. Put them in the order you like but if you have a top five selection, you must use your pick on one of these players.

Mike’s Take: There are some red flags for Charles which may prompt a move down within the tier. I am anxious to see what Norv Turner has in store for Adrian Peterson. Eddie Lacy was a later addition to Tier 1. I would be ecstatic to get him with a mid-first round pick. Looking at the top two tiers at RB and WR, I would almost definitely prefer to get one of these 5 RB and best available WR, than the other way around, in most formats.

Tier 2
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
6
Marshawn Lynch
SEA 4 1.10
7
DeMarco Murray
DAL 11 2.02
8
Doug Martin
TB 7 2.09
9
Montee Ball
DEN 4 1.12
10
Giovani Bernard
CIN 4 2.06
11
Le’Veon Bell
PIT 12 3.06
12
Arian Foster
HOU 10 2.08
13
Andre Ellington
ARI 4 3.02

The second tier of running backs is deep and populated by talented backs, albeit ones with some question marks, even if those question marks are minor. Will Lynch wear down? Can Murray, Ball and Foster remain healthy? Will Bernard and Ellington get enough touches to attain RB1 status? Can Martin bounce back and is Bell more than just a volume guy? While this group is talented, it’s not talented enough to stop fantasy owners from considering the top six or seven wide receivers, the top three quarterbacks and Jimmy Graham ahead of the players in this tier. Of particular concern are Ellington and Foster with Bernard also struggling in the preseason.

Mike’s Take: I often felt like this tier was getting too big when doing our rankings, but really, pretty similar risk-reward profiles across the board. We’ve had Doug Martin higher than most rankings since the start of fantasy prep season, probably too high before, but now reasonable with recent circumstances in the Bucs backfield. People either believe Arian Foster is going to bounce back, or he won’t, without much in between. I’m avoiding drafting him, letting someone else take the chance.

Tier 3
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
14
Zac Stacy
STL 4 3.05
15
C.J. Spiller
BUF 9 4.01
16
Ryan Mathews
SD 10 4.05
17
Alfred Morris
WAS 10 2.12
18
Shane Vereen
NE 10 4.05
19
Ben Tate
CLE 4 5.08
20
Reggie Bush
DET 9 3.08

The warts really begin to show in the 3rd tier of running backs. At this point in your draft, feel comfortable grabbing Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski at tight end as well as any wide receiver ranked in the Top 15. Mathews, Morris, Vereen, Tate and Bush all have question marks regarding how much they will be used. While Stacy was productive as a rookie, there was a reason he lasted until the 5th round of the NFL Draft, and he was clearly a volume play given his 3.9 yards per carry average. In addition, his performance in the preseason has been disconcerting with reports out of St. Louis that Benny Cunningham could muscle his way into making this more of a timeshare situation. Spiller has the most upside in this group but he is a boom/bust type of pick with the Buffalo Bills coaching staff unwilling to bend their offensive philosophy to get him the ball in space. There is talent in this tier but also some risk. The next tier features safer options, albeit with less upside.

Mike’s Take: Spiller is a tough one to figure out. The Bills should run a lot, benefitting Spiller, but he was a real disappointment last year. The Bills overall offense looks poor, which makes things sketchy for one of your starting running backs. I really like Mathews’ talent. Can he stay healthy and where is his dedication level at? Two big questions. I’m really thinking Shane Vereen could be a S.O.D. (steal of the draft) candidate lately, but given his anticipated role, on the Patriots no less, it is hard to push him up any higher in the rankings.

Tier 4
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
21
Rashad Jennings
NYG 8 3.11
22
Toby Gerhart
JAC 11 4.02
23
Ray Rice
BAL 11 5.01
24
Maurice Jones-Drew
OAK 5 6.07
25
Frank Gore
SF 8 4.08
26
Bishop Sankey ®
TEN 9 5.07

Tier 4 may actually feature some workhorse runners although none of these running backs are strong candidates to finish in the Top 10. Even Rice seems like a long shot even though he’s been there, done that. Jennings could lose some goal line touches to Andre Williams but he looks like a three down back entering the season as does Gerhart. MJD has looked solid and we all know Darren McFadden‘s injury history. Gore isn’t flashy but he should attain RB2 status in 2014. Sankey needs to overtake Shonn Greene, but once that happens, we expect him to be a feature back. Most of this group represents solid value at their current ADP, and they are going off the board at the point where the wide receivers feature greater risk.

Mike’s Take: On the one hand, Jennings looks like a good fit for the Giants offense. On the other hand, its Rashad Jennings, who has bounced around a bit and never really strung together a consistent streak of solid performances. Gerhart maybe never had an opportunity to do it before, but we are skeptical, and even as a high volume carry guy, how is that going to translate in the Jaguars offense? MJD does look good, and is still coming off the board as an RB3 most of the time. He looks like a worthwhile risk. It may be smoke and mirrors by the Titans indicating Sankey isn’t ready to be their workhorse, yet. We’ve seen it before with teams and rookies. That is part of the risk rolling the dice on rookies. If you draft him, then make sure you don’t absolutely need to rely on him – keep expectations in check and hope for the best.

Tier 5
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
27
Chris Johnson
NYJ 11 5.09
28
Lamar Miller
MIA 5 6.12
29
Pierre Thomas
NO 6 7.01
30
Trent Richardson
IND 10 6.03
31
Steven Jackson
ATL 9 7.06
32
Joique Bell
DET 9 5.04

A quick look at this tier makes it clear why Tier 4 is the place to be. Outside of Trent Richardson, this group features little upside. And even T-rich’s upside must be questioned with his continued struggles in the preseason and the Colts shoddy offensive line. Johnson and Jackson are aging backs while Thomas seems destined for pass receiving duties. Both Miller and Bell figures to split the work in the range of 55/45 with their backfield mates (Knowshon Moreno and Reggie Bush), although it’s up for debate as to which players in each pairing will handle the larger role.

Mike’s Take: Outside of Pierre Thomas, if he drops far enough, these guys might as well all be tagged, “do not draft” on my list. Not that I have anything against Bell, but he typically gets drafted somewhat earlier than I would take him. As for the rest, Richardson continues to look sluggish, it is hard to imagine Jackson staying healthy a month much less a season, Johnson continues to be over-drafted, and Miller could easily be surpassed by Moreno at this point. Do I want to take the chance Miller holds him off, to own a piece of the Dolphins running game? More than likely, I’m drafting other positions around the time these guys are coming off the board.

Tier 6
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
33
Mark Ingram
NO 6 9.09
34
Bernard Pierce
BAL 11 8.05
35
Knowshon Moreno
MIA 5 8.08
36
DeAngelo Williams
CAR 12 10.03
37
Danny Woodhead
SD 10 8.11
38
Darren McFadden
OAK 5 10.12

There is a large gap in the ADP ranges between Tiers 5 and 6. Unfortunately, the ADP gap doesn’t lead to the increase in value that you would expect. Ingram seems ready to finally assume a lead role in New Orleans and Moreno could easily open the season as Miami’s starter. Pierce’s preseason concussion has stunted his momentum while Williams and Woodhead offer pretty much no upside. As for McFadden, I’m fine if somebody grabs him and watches him bust out.

Mike’s Take: I pretty much agree with Dave with one slight exception. In terms of getting a third RB on your roster, I don’t see a ton of difference in outlook between this group and the group above them, except at a discounted price. When the prior group is up in the draft, solidify your receivers or QB position. Then at this point, maybe grab a pair and play the odds one will exceed expectations. Lean to upside with Ingram, Pierce and Moreno. Another reason to de-emphasize depth at RB – they are always easier to grab off waivers as the season progresses. Woodhead is unheralded and will never offer much trade value, but he can put up solid points, especially in a PPR league.

Tier 7
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
39
Carlos Hyde ®
SF 8 8.06
40
Christine Michael
SEA 4 12.01
41
Terrance West ®
CLE 4 9.07
42
Devonta Freeman ®
ATL 9 9.02
43
Knile Davis
KC 6 13.03

This is the upside tier with all of these running backs having the ability to have breakout seasons provided the players ahead of them on the depth chart suffer significant injuries. While Hyde has looked solid, we fully expect him to work in a pure backup role in his rookie season. West has done little to challenge Ben Tate in Cleveland while Michael can’t seem to overtake Robert Turbin for the lead backup role to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. That leaves Freeman as the player in this tier most likely to earn a major role with only the aging Steven Jackson ahead of him.

Mike’s Take: Upside tier? I was calling it the handcuff tier. Although the way drafts go these days, in my experience, less and less does the owner of say, Marshawn Lynch, acquire Lynch’s anticipated direct handcuff, Michael. This could also be known as the lottery ticket tier, and everyone likes playing the lottery for a big potential payoff. Just make sure when you buy your ticket, you aren’t overpaying. This tier is also very much in flux as players with the most “upside” move in and out of here constantly.

Tier 8
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
44
Khiry Robinson
NO 6 11.05
45
Ahmad Bradshaw
IND 10 11.10
46
James Starks
GB 9 13.09
47
Shonn Greene
TEN 9 12.08
48
Stevan Ridley
NE 10 7.08
49
Darren Sproles
PHI 7 7.11
50
Jeremy Hill ®
CIN 4 10.04
51
Chris Ivory
NYJ 11 12.05
52
LeGarrette Blount
PIT 12 11.07
53
Lance Dunbar
DAL 11 13.12

At this point in your draft, you’re pulling slots although some pulls are better than others. With a 7th round ADP, Ridley and especially Sproles are overvalued. Out of this group, Bradshaw, Hill, Ivory and Dunbar are solid values. Of particular interest are Ivory, who seems a much better match in the Jets offense than free agent signee Chris Johnson, and Jeremy Hill, who could emerge as a solid RB3 if the Bengals determine that Giovani Bernard is more effective in a committee role than as a workhorse back. While Greene may open the season getting a fair amount of touches in Tennessee, we expect that to change early in 2014.

Mike’s Take: This is a mixed bag of handcuffs and role players that could contribute from time to time in the right matchup, and contribute more if one of their teammates goes down. With recent rumors Ridley might not even make the Patriots final roster, his ADP is likely overstated, but he could bounce back quickly if (when) he finds employment elsewhere. Personal preference is the name of the game here, and mine include Bradshaw, Blount and Dunbar.

Tier 9
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
54
Tre Mason ®
STL 4 14.02
55
Fred Jackson
BUF 9 7.12
56
Andre Williams ®
NYG 8 10.03
57
Bryce Brown
BUF 9 –
58
Stepfan Taylor
ARI 4 –
59
Jonathan Grimes
HOU 10 –
60
James White ®
NE 10 13.06

While there are some solid values in Tier 8, that isn’t as much of the case in Tier 9 outside of one major exception. With Arian Foster struggling with injuries in the preseason, there is no valid reason why Jonathan Grimes is going undrafted in standard 12 team, 15 roster spot formats. His ADP is likely depressed given the late start getting on fantasy players’ radars.

Mike’s Take: Even in 12-team leagues of moderate depth, many of these guys aren’t getting drafted, but you need to know the names so you are ready to grab them off the waiver wire when the time comes a starter goes down. Also refer to our “Not Ranked – On The Radar” section of our RB cheatsheet.

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