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San Diego Chargers Team Report

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At 33 years old and entering his 12th NFL season, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t shown any signs of imminent decline. A solid supporting cast should place him inside the Top 12 at his position for the third straight year.

At 33 years old and entering his 12th NFL season, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t shown any signs of imminent decline. A solid supporting cast should place him inside the Top 12 at his position for the third straight year.

QB Philip Rivers

At 33 years of age and entering his 12th year in the league, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers hasn’t shown any signs of imminent decline. After suffering through a subpar 2012 campaign during which he threw for 3,606 yards with 26 touchdowns due mainly to the declining skill level of the players surrounding him, he has rebounded strongly in each of the past two seasons, throwing for more than 4,200 yards and over 30 touchdowns in both 2013 and 2014. With a full contingent of wide receivers last year in Keenan Allen, Malcom Floyd and Eddie Royal together with tight end Antonio Gates, Rivers threw for 4,286 yards with 31 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, finishing the year as the 11th ranked fantasy quarterback. Somewhat inconsistent with eight games scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points in each of the past two seasons, Rivers is best utilized in tandem with another quarterback for fantasy purposes. With Stevie Johnson having replaced the departed Royal and rookie Melvin Gordon taking over for Ryan Mathews, the Chargers return a solid supporting cast that should help Rivers finish 2015 as a low end QB1 once again.

RB Melvin Gordon

With Ryan Mathews taking his talents (and injury issues) to the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, the Chargers traded up in the 1st round of this year’s draft to select Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon. With solid size at 6’1” and 213 pounds and possessing good but not great speed having run a 4.52-40, Gordon enters the NFL as a pure 1st and 2nd down runner due to his lack of ability as a pass receiver and in pass protection. However, on a solid Chargers offense featuring a bevy of massive offensive linemen, he rates as the top rookie running back for fantasy purposes, at least in redraft formats. And with little competition for the rushing down work from Danny Woodhead, Branden Oliver and Donald Brown, Gordon should approach 250 touches in his rookie season provided he doesn’t have any ball protection issues. He rates as a mid to lower tier RB2 with upside.

RB Danny Woodhead

Coming off a career year in his first year as a Charger in 2013 when he caught 76 passes, gained 1,034 total yards and scored eight touchdowns, expectations were high for Woodhead entering the 2014 season. Then he suffered a broken fibula in Week 3 that ended his season. One of the game’s premier pass catchers out of the backfield, Woodhead is assured of handling most of that work once again in 2015 with rookie Melvin Gordon a work in progress with respect to pass protection, although Branden Oliver’s solid work out of the backfield clouds Woodhead’s expected role somewhat. A top 20 fantasy running back in both PPR and standard formats during his career year in 2013, the truth is that we aren’t sold on Woodhead as a player who will routinely top 1,000 yards, and a more realistic touchdown count is the 4-6 range (he averaged 5.5 from 2010-2013). He rates as a low end RB4 in standard scoring formats and a mid-tier RB3 in PPR formats.

RB Branden Oliver

An undrafted free agent last season, Oliver found a role in the Chargers offense when injuries struck Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, and Donald Brown proved to be ineffective. A 5’8”, 202 pound runner not afraid to attack the middle of the defense, Oliver has decent speed and agility and put together back to back solid performances in Weeks 5 and 6 last season against the Jets and Raiders, topping 100 rushing yards and scoring in each game. However, he struggled badly in his six other games as a starter, finding the end zone just once and failing to top 71 yards in any game, finishing the season averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Entering 2015, Oliver figures to battle with Woodhead for playing time behind rookie 1st round pick Melvin Gordon. With reports indicating that Gordon has struggled with pass protection, Oliver could siphon off a fair number of carries, but we have no illusions that he will open the season in the starting lineup. And although Oliver did catch 36 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown last season, Woodhead is still clearly the team’s best pass catcher out of the backfield. Since we expect Oliver would take over as the Chargers starter in the event of a Gordon injury, we rate Oliver as little more than a low end handcuff in 2015.

RB Donald Brown

Well on his way to establishing himself as a 1st round bust after four years in the league, Brown put together a reasonably productive season with the Colts in 2013, gaining 537 yards and six touchdowns while averaging a healthy 5.3 yards per carry, earning himself a three-year, $10.5-million contract with the Chargers. Sure enough, he bombed in his first year in San Diego, gaining just 223 yards on 85 carries and failing to find the end zone as he struggled to produce when injuries limited Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead. Passed on the depth chart by Branden Oliver last season and with Woodhead once again healthy and Mathews having been replaced by 1st round pick Melvin Gordon, Brown may not even have a job come opening week. Oh wait, with the Chargers having committed a $3.25-million signing bonus to him last year, they have sent off signals that they remain committed to him in 2015.

WR Keenan Allen

After an outstanding rookie season as a 3rd round pick out of California during which he caught 71 passes for 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns (on just 104 targets), Allen’s production took a big hit in 2014 as he caught 77 passes but for only 783 yards (10.2 yards per reception) and four touchdowns. With Malcom Floyd healthy for 16 games, Allen was left to handle the short and intermediate routes, a role he shared with Eddie Royal and tight end Antonio Gates. What’s in store for 2015? By all accounts, more of the same with Chargers head coach Mike McCoy committed to spreading the ball around on offense. While Allen’s skill set suggests that he will never emerge as an elite wide receiver in the league, we do expect him to rebound strongly from his sophomore struggles. With both Gates and Floyd entering the final stages of their careers (Floyd has already said that 2015 will be his final season in the league), Allen should at least match his target count of 121 from a year ago and if he can approach his efficiency from his rookie season, a 1,000 yard, 5-7 touchdown season seems likely. That makes him a mid to lower tier WR2 in 2015.

WR Malcom Floyd

Coming back from a neck injury that sidelined him for 14 games during the 2013 season, Floyd enjoyed a solid bounce back season last year, hauling in 52 of his 92 targets for 856 yards and six touchdowns. That marked the third season out of the last four that Floyd topped 800 yards with at least five touchdowns. At 33 years of age (34 in September) and entering what he claims will be his last year in the league, Floyd will once again assume the role of the Chargers main deep threat with Keenan Allen and free agent signee Stevie Johnson handling the short and intermediate work. While Floyd has never topped 1,000 receiving yards or six touchdowns during his 11 years in the league, he has produced as a mid to lower tier WR3 in four of the last five seasons. Given his solid performance last season and the expectation that his role won’t change significantly, he rates as an upper tier WR4 with little upside in 2015.

WR Stevie Johnson

Traded from the Buffalo Bills to San Francisco 49ers prior to last season, Johnson suffered through his worst season since 2010, catching 35 of his 50 targets for 435 yards and three touchdowns. An afterthought in San Francisco’s offense as the 4th option in the passing game behind Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, Johnson joins the Chargers as San Diego’s likely 4th receiving option behind Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd, replacing the departed Eddie Royal. However, with the Chargers offensive philosophy of spreading the ball around, Johnson has an opportunity to replace Royal’s production from a year ago (62 receptions, 778 yards, seven touchdowns). And with the aging Gates suspended for the first four games of the year and Floyd having appeared in 16 games just twice during his 11-year career, Johnson could top 100 targets in 2015. He rates as an upper tier WR5 with upside.

TE Antonio Gates

Although there were plenty of fantasy prognosticators that had written Gates off prior to the 2013 season, he managed to keep the naysayers at bay for another year as he posted his highest yardage total since the 2009 season with 872 yards on 77 receptions. He would have been a top five fantasy tight end if he posted his usual eight or nine touchdown count but he finished the season with just four, the lowest total since his rookie season in 2003. Sure enough, Gates posted similar reception and yardage totals in 2014 with 69 and 821 but with 12 touchdowns, the second most of his illustrious career, he finished the season as the 2nd ranked fantasy tight end. At 35 years of age, it’s doubtful that fantasy prognosticators were going to predict another 2nd place ranking in 2015 for Gates but that issue became moot when he was hit with a four game suspension for performance enhancing drugs. In 2015, the question is where do you draft the aging Gates given his suspension and the potential emergence of Ladarius Green during the first four games of the season? A quick look reveals that Gates didn’t fade down the stretch last season as he caught 17 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns during the final three games of the season. In 14 games, Green caught just 19 passes for 226 yards while failing to find the end zone. Since the Chargers failed to make Green a big part of their offensive game plan despite his solid production in 2013, we don’t expect them to do so this season therefore we can conclude with reasonable certainty that Gates will see a healthy majority of the snaps at tight end when he returns to the lineup. We like him as a low end TE1 in 2015 and one that comes at a relative bargain with an ADP in the middle of the 13th round.

TE Ladarius Green

After a solid season in 2013 when he caught 17 of his 29 targets for 376 yards and three touchdowns, it appeared that it wasn’t a question of if but a question of when Green would take over for Antonio Gates as the Chargers main tight end. Entering the final year of his contract in 2015, Green faces an uncertain future after his role in the team’s offense was reduced last season and he failed to deliver the big plays that were a hallmark of his 2013 campaign. He does have a solid opportunity to open the season, however, with Gates on the shelf for four games due to a suspension for PEDs. Unfortunately for Green, it would be foolhardy to expect the Chargers to utilize him in the same manner that Gates would have been during those four games given Green’s lack of use last season. At best, he will rate as a low end TE1 until Gates returns to the lineup. After that, his fantasy value will almost certainly hit the floor. At one time considered an outstanding dynasty league prospect, his value in that format is also questionable given his contract situation.

San Diego Chargers IDP Team Report

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It doesn’t get nearly the publicity of some of the team’s offensive stars, but the San Diego Chargers have quietly assembled a solid defense under coordinator John Pagano, ranking inside the NFL’s top 10 a year ago. That defense isn’t exactly a goldmine of IDP-relevant talent, but it isn’t a complete wasteland, either.

Defensive Linemen

In 2014, the entire San Diego defensive line generated all of 8.5 sacks. Defensive end Corey Liuget, who accounted for 4.5 of those sacks and recently inked a five-year, $58.5 million contract extension, told Ricky Henne of the team’s website that he’s aware that isn’t going to cut it in 2015.

“We want to be difference makers this year,” Liuget explained. “We want to play together and just go out there and ball out. We want to play the game with a bunch of energy, but getting our sack numbers up is most important.”

The Bolts may have thought the 25-year-old Liuget was worth that mammoth investment, but with a career high of seven sacks (in 2012), the same can’t really be said for Liuget’s IDP value. The fifth-year veteran is an OK choice as a low-ceiling IDP DL2, but Liuget’s little more than that.

Linebackers

The Chargers invested a second-round pick in the 2015 NFL draft in Miami inside linebacker Denzel Perryman in an effort to bolster a rather iffy group of inside linebackers, but Perryman told Hayley Elwood of the team’s website he knows nothing will be handed to him at the professional level.

“I want to execute my role on special teams and hopefully take a starting job,” Perryman said. “It’s all about competition on this level and it’s all a business. If I don’t get the job done, I’m pretty sure then next year they’ll bring someone else in to get the job done. I just want to get in and help this team win.”

It isn’t that hard to envision Perryman winning that starting spot. The Chargers have been waiting for Donald Butler to take the next step as a pro seemingly since the moment he entered the NFL in 2011. Third-year pro Manti Te’o has shown some flashes of the talent that made him a Heisman contender at Notre Dame, but Te’o has also been inconsistent and plagued by injuries.

To say that it’s a fluid situation is an understatement, and it’s one that may well not be resolved well into the preseason. For now I’d give Perryman the nod as the “most valuable” of the Chargers’ linebackers (followed by everyone’s favorite imaginary Casanova), but counting on any San Diego ILB as more than a fourth fantasy linebacker at present is asking for trouble.

Defensive Backs

For years, free safety Eric Weddle has been the leader of the San Diego defense, both from an NFL and IDP standpoint. However, with the 30-year-old Weddle and the team embroiled in a nasty contract dispute, it appears 2015 will be Weddle’s last season in Southern California.

Weddle himself sounded resigned to that fact while speaking with Eric Williams of ESPN. “I just want to go out on a high note, go out on top and lead my team,” he said. “I want to continue to show what I’m all about. I’m a pro. I’m a professional and strive to be the best and try to have fun. It’s all in the past. I can’t control it. They will do what they want. That’s their plan, I have mine and I’ll make the most of it.”

IDP owners will just have to make the most of it as well and enjoy one last season of that magnificent beard posting IDP DB1 numbers before facing an uncertain future.

Oakland Raiders Team Report

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Coming at you! Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray is an obvious choice for a fantasy breakout candidate. Can he seize the opportunity and become a workhorse back?

Coming at you! Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray is an obvious choice for a fantasy breakout candidate. Can he seize the opportunity and become a workhorse back?

QB Derek Carr

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s NFL Draft, Carr unexpectedly supplanted Matt Schaub in training camp to earn the starting role and played well enough to provide the Raiders with confidence that he is their long term answer at the quarterback position. Despite playing with wide receivers and tight ends that would rank amongst the worst depth charts at those positions in the league, Carr managed to throw for 3,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, much of that production came in garbage time (which certainly helped to inflate his touchdown pass total) and Carr managed to complete just 58.1% of his passes despite ranking near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt and yards per completion. While Carr has a strong arm, he will need to avoid the check down mentality that he displayed as a rookie as well as improve his accuracy if he is to emerge as a quality starter and decent fantasy option. Since we view some of the issues arising from his rookie season as the result of playing with inferior skill position players, Carr has the potential to emerge as a mid-tier QB2 in his second season due to the additions of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, as well as the return to health of Rod Streater.

RB Latavius Murray

Proving why the Raiders are the Raiders, they kept Murray nailed to the bench for the first 11 weeks of last season behind veteran journeymen Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden before unleashing him on the league for the final five games of the season. During that stretch, Murray ran for 370 yards and a pair of touchdowns while producing another 108 yards as a receiver. Possessed with outstanding athletic ability, the 2013 6th round pick is an obvious breakout candidate in 2015. At 6’2” and 223 pounds, Murray has the size to handle a workhorse role and given the competition he will face in training camp from Roy Helu and Trent Richardson, he could be in line for 300 touches. The only negatives with Murray are his uneven skills as a receiver as well as a Raiders offense that figures to rate in the bottom third of the league. Murray is a lower-tier RB2 with upside.

RB Roy Helu

After showing plenty of promise as a rookie 4th round pick in 2011, gaining 640 yards on the ground while catching 49 passes for 379 yards, Helu emerged as nothing more than a 3rd down, change of pace back during his final three years in Washington. In 2015, he joins a Raiders rushing attack that will feature Latavius Murray with Trent Richardson and Marcel Reece also competing for touches. An underrated receiver out of the backfield, Helu has caught 122 passes for 1,107 yards in his career excluding 2012 in which he only appeared in 3 games. However, despite having solid agility and better than average speed, Helu has just three receiving touchdowns during his career despite averaging 8.9 yards per reception. That makes him little more than Murray’s handcuff this season although we wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders went with a committee approach if injury strikes down their starter.

RB Trent Richardson

Just two years after amassing 950 rushing yards, 367 receiving yards and scoring 12 touchdowns as a rookie despite playing much of the season with rib and knee injuries, Trent Richardson is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the biggest running back draft busts of his era. A total flop in Indianapolis after being traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Colts early in the 2013 season, Richardson had fallen behind Ahmad Bradshaw, Dan Herron and Zurlon Tipton before his days in Indy came to an end. Signed by the Raiders in the offseason, Richardson will battle Roy Helu, rookie undrafted free agent Michael Dyer and Marcel Reece for playing time behind Latavius Murray. Given his inability to gain yards on the ground (career yards per carry average of 3.3), lack of explosiveness and rumored weight issues in Indy, we aren’t banking on this reclamation project having a happy ending.

RB Marcel Reece

While Reece is a solid fullback and a capable fill in at running back (he has two 100 yards games to his career), the Raiders have chosen to only use him as a tailback when their hand has been forced. However, with Roy Helu and Trent Richardson joining him on the depth chart behind Latavius Murray, it is unlikely that Reece will see much time at tailback this season. And with Helu signed mainly for his receiving abilities out of the backfield, we don’t expect Reece will haul in many passes in 2015. His days as a late round flier in larger PPR leagues should be over.

WR Amari Cooper

With one of the worst group of wide receivers in the league last season, the Raiders were desperate for an upgrade at the position heading into 2015. Needing to address the position in order to give second year quarterback Derek Carr a better opportunity to succeed, and provide the offense with more playmaking ability, Oakland used the 4th overall selection in the draft to acquire Alabama product Amari Cooper. While Cooper lacks ideal size at 6’1” and 210 pounds, he has outstanding speed and displayed solid playmaking ability in college. In Oakland, he will be paired with Carr, who needs to attack the field vertically in order to progress as an NFL quarterback. However, with Cooper excelling on short and intermediate routes in college and Carr having shown a propensity for making those types of passes as a rookie, Cooper should receive a ton of targets and catch plenty of passes in 2015. The issue is whether he will be able to turn those receptions into big plays and how often he will be able to find the end zone on an Oakland offense that figures to finish in the bottom third in the league. Since Carr seems another year away from establishing himself as a true quality starter, a season with 900-1,000 yards and between five and seven touchdowns seems likely for Cooper making him a lower tier WR3 in his rookie season.

WR Michael Crabtree

After failing to live up to his promise after being taken by the 49ers with the 10th pick in the 2009 draft, Michael Crabtree joins the Raiders in 2015 where he is expected to start opposite rookie Amari Cooper. After catching 85 passes for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns during the 2012 season, Crabtree suffered through an injury plagued 2013 before being relegated to a more secondary role last season, catching 68 of his 108 targets for 698 yards and four touchdowns. In Oakland, Crabtree has the potential to emerge as the team’s top receiving option depending on how quickly Cooper adapts to the pro game. While we don’t expect that to happen, reports out of the Raiders training camp indicate that Crabtree is rejuvenated and motivated to prove the 49ers were wrong to reduce his role leading to his exit from San Francisco. With conservative Derek Carr at quarterback and Crabtree showing little explosiveness last season averaging a career-low 10.3 yards per carry, it is difficult to predict a solid comeback season from Crabtree no matter how glowing the training camp reports are. We rate him as a lower tier WR4 although one of the more intriguing options in that tier.

WR Rod Streater

Poised to possibly emerge as the Raiders top receiving option last season after catching 60 passes for 888 yards and four touchdowns during his second year in the league, Streater suffered a foot fracture in Week 3 that ended his season. And the Raiders moved on, adding Amari Cooper with the 4th pick in this year’s draft and signing free agent Michael Crabtree. Their additions all but ensure that Streater will assume a role as a low volume, possession receiver this year in Oakland. Possessing decent size at 6’3” and 200 pounds but with middling speed, Streater could produce some decent stats in that role given the Raiders murky outlook at the tight end position. However, until he strings together a couple of solid games, Streater is waiver wire material entering 2015.

WR Andre Holmes

A former undrafted free agent, Holmes was slowly emerging as a decent receiving option for the Raiders, gaining 693 yards and four touchdowns on 47 receptions last season after catching 25 passes for 431 yards and a touchdown in 2013. However, his path to the starting lineup is blocked in 2015 by Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. That leaves Holmes fighting with Rod Streater, Brice Butler and Kenbrell Thompkins for targets. Since Holmes has displayed solid playmaking ability during his stay in Oakland, we won’t be surprised if he wins the battle to emerge as the team’s backup. However, we still don’t like his fantasy prospects in 2015.

TE Mychal Rivera

On first glance, it appears that Rivera’s career is on the upswing. After catching 38 passes for 407 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, he improved to 58 receptions for 534 yards and four touchdowns last season. However, a closer look reveals that, while Rivera may have posted marginally better production, he wasn’t really all that much better as a sophomore than he was as a rookie. First off, he failed to top 40 receiving yards in 12 games. Secondly, despite averaging a lowly 9.2 yards per reception, he managed to catch just 58% of his targets, a decline from his reception to target ratio of 63.3% in 2013. Finally, the Raiders added two players to the tight end depth chart in the offseason, blocking specialist Lee Smith and rookie 3rd round pick Clive Walford. With a reduced snap count likely, we don’t like Rivera’s fantasy prospects in 2015.