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Jacksonville Jaguars Team Report

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The Jacksonville Jaguars envision rookie RB T.J. Yeldon as the starter and a workhorse type back. We like his prospects, but the story is eerily similar to the preseason fantasy hype for Toby Gerhart last season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars envision rookie RB T.J. Yeldon as the starter and a workhorse type back. We like his prospects, but the story is eerily similar to the preseason fantasy hype for Toby Gerhart last season.

QB Blake Bortles

Taken 3rd overall in last year’s NFL Draft, Bortles was thrust into the starting lineup in Week 3 and, not surprisingly, struggled mightily in a Jaguars offense that was devoid of much proven talent. In 2015, the offensive line has been bolstered, RB T.J. Yeldon was taken in the draft to improve the team’s rushing attack and tight end Julius Thomas was signed in free agency to pair with a trio of promising young wide receivers in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee. Unfortunately, that probably isn’t going to be enough to help the Jaguars emerge as a solid offensive team, although they are getting closer. Coming off a season in which he threw for just 2,908 yards with 17 interceptions and just 11 touchdowns in 14 games while struggling with his accuracy (completion percentage of 58.9%), Bortles isn’t likely to be fantasy relevant in 2015. While it’s nice that his rushing ability helps pad his fantasy production (419 yards last season), we still rate him as a lower tier QB2.

RB T.J. Yeldon

After the Toby Gerhart debacle from a year ago, Jacksonville addressed the running back position in this year’s draft, taking Yeldon with the 4th pick in the 2nd round. A big back at 6’2” and 221 pounds, Yeldon figures to open the season in the starting lineup and all the signals out of Jacksonville are that the team envisions him as a workhorse type back. That all sounds great if it didn’t seem like such an obvious case of déjà vu. In 2014, Gerhart was signed by Jacksonville, they envisioned him as a workhorse type back given his solid size and receiving ability. We all know how that ended. While we aren’t going to anoint Yeldon as a bust just yet, Gerhart does serve as a cautionary tale when drafting Jacksonville running backs. Although their offense is improving, it still isn’t expected to be very good in 2015. That limits Yeldon’s upside. And we’re also not sold on the workhorse predictions since Denard Robinson emerged as a solid contributor last season and Gerhart has had some success as a backup during his stay in Minnesota. Yeldon rates as a solid dynasty prospect but we like him as just a high end RB3 in redraft formats.

RB Denard Robinson

After struggling with his conversion from college quarterback to NFL running back as a rookie in 2013, Robinson emerged as a decent playmaker in his second season last year. With Toby Gerhart ineffective and nicked up, Robinson took over as the Jaguars starter in Week 7 and had a solid four game run through Week 10 during which he gained 419 yards and scored four touchdowns. However, he struggled in Weeks 12 and 13 before suffering a season ending foot injury in Week 14. In 2015, Robinson seems destined for backup status as the Jaguars felt that his 6’0”, 197 pound frame wouldn’t hold up as a starter leading to the draft selection of T.J. Yeldon. Since Toby Gerhart remains in the picture and will likely steal some touches from him, Robinson isn’t anything more than a late round flyer serving as Yeldon’s backup despite his improved performance in 2014.

RB Toby Gerhart

Arguably the most over-hyped player for fantasy purposes last season (you didn’t read the hype here, folks), Gerhart crashed and burned as the Jaguars starter after signing a ridiculous three-year, $10.5-million contract. Touted as a breakout candidate given his perceived lack of competition in Jacksonville along with a career yards per carry average of 4.7 (working mostly as a 3rd down back, this should have been discounted), Gerhart failed to stay healthy and was ineffective when in the lineup, gaining just 326 yards while averaging 3.2 yards per carry and gaining 186 yards on 20 receptions. With Denard Robinson showcasing his superior playmaking ability last season and rookie running back T.J. Yeldon anointed the team’s starter, Gerhart isn’t likely to even warrant handcuff status in 2015. He has no fantasy value unless Yeldon goes down with an injury, in which case Gerhart would likely split time with Robinson but get the majority of the work in short yardage situations.

WR Allen Robinson

Acquired with a late 2nd round pick in last year’s NFL Draft, the 6’3”, 210 pound Robinson emerged as the Jaguars most consistent receiving weapon as a rookie before being lost for the season in Week 10 with a broken foot. By then he had amassed 48 receptions on 81 targets for 548 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Lacking solid deep speed, Robinson is clearly a possession receiver on a Jaguars squad desperate for playmakers. However, he figures to enter training camp as their top rated wide receiver and given his rapport with quarterback Blake Bortles, Robinson has some breakout potential in 2015. Since Robinson lacks upside, we expect Jacksonville to also utilize Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns which would limit Robinson’s target count. He rates as a low end WR3 or high-end WR4 in redraft formats and is an intriguing dynasty prospect.

WR Marqise Lee

After a dynamic 2012 season at USC, Lee has watched his stock plummet with an underwhelming final collegiate season and a less than stellar rookie season in Jacksonville. Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, Lee was expected to step into the starting lineup opposite Cecil Shorts but he finished the season with just 37 receptions for 422 yards and a touchdown in 13 games as he was outshone by fellow rookies Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. In 2015, he will battle Hurns for a spot in the starting lineup but he must overcome the injury issues that have plagued him over the past two seasons. At 6”0” and 192 pounds and with solid but not outstanding speed, it is fair to wonder if Lee will emerge as the solid, consistently receiving option the Jaguars envisioned when he was drafted. Having missed most of the offseason with a lingering knee injury, we’re not about to predict a breakout season in 2015. Lee is waiver wire material in standard 12 team leagues and his dynasty prospects hinge on his ability to remain in the lineup and become more consistent in his second season in the league.

WR Allen Hurns

An undrafted rookie free agent last season, Hurns burst onto the scene in Week 1 with a four reception, 110 yard, two touchdown performance against the Philadelphia Eagles. As it turned out, the Eagles weren’t that good on defense and Hurns wasn’t all that great as a rookie, despite leading the Jaguars with 677 receiving yards. Over his final 15 games, he amassed just 47 receptions for 567 yards four touchdowns while being targeted 88 times, topping 40 receiving yards six times. In 2015, he will battle fellow second year player Marqise Lee for a spot in the starting lineup opposite Allen Robinson. While Hurns was decent as a rookie, he lacks top end speed and doesn’t have great size at 6’1” and 198 pounds. With Robinson more of a possession receiver than a burner, we expect Lee to relegate Hurns to a backup role, limiting his fantasy value.

WR Rashad Greene

Despite having a solid trio of promising second year wide receivers, the Jaguars selected Florida State’s Rashad Greene in the 5th round of this year’s NFL Draft. Greene was productive in college catching passes from Jameis Winston but, at 6’0” and 180 pounds, he is destined for a slot receiver role in Jacksonville which caps his upside. The Jags like him enough that they released his main competition for that role in Ace Sanders, who caught 51 passes as a rookie. However, with Julius Thomas trolling the middle of the field, we don’t see Greene catching anywhere near 50 passes as a rookie. He rates as a lower tier prospect in dynasty formats.

WR Justin Blackmon

It looks like it is over and out in Jacksonville for the 5th overall selection in the 2012 draft. With three promising 2nd year players at wide receiver, Blackmon likely won’t get another shot in Jacksonville even if Blackmon is reinstated from his suspension by the NFL. Blackmon might be worth a stash in deep dynasty formats.

TE Julius Thomas

While it wouldn’t be fair to say that Thomas has gone from the penthouse to the outhouse after leaving the Denver Broncos to join the Jaguars, that analogy might be fair when it comes to his fantasy prospects. Touted by many to finish as a top two tight end last season in Denver, Thomas missed four games due to injury and amassed just 489 receiving yards but still managed to finish the season as the 7th ranked fantasy tight end due to his ability to find the end zone. He scored 12 touchdowns for the 2nd consecutive season despite being targeted just 62 times. Let’s go out on a limb and say that he won’t come anywhere close to scoring 12 touchdowns in 2015. It would take a giant leap of faith to even predict a top five fantasy season from Thomas this season given the state of the Jaguars offense. While Jacksonville clearly features ascending offensive talent at many positions, we expect their offense to finish in the bottom third in the league. That renders Thomas a mid-tier TE1.

Jacksonville Jaguars IDP Team Report

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Almost since head coach Gus Bradley arrived in Jacksonville, he’s been trying to re-build the team’s floundering defense. The team took some steps in 2014, ranking among the top 10 in the NFL in sacks, and the hop was No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler would help continue that improvement. That is, right up until Fowler suffered a season-ending ACL tear on the first day of rookie camp. Ouch.

Defensive Linemen

Fowler’s injury means that the Jaguars will once again be forced to lean heavily on veteran Chris Clemons in the “Leo” pass-rushing role. Clemons told Vito Stellino of the Florida Times-Union he expects the Jags defense to continue to improve in 2015.

“You can see the confidence,” Clemons said. “Not even being able to go full speed (in the mini-camp), you can still see the confidence. It’s just amazing from last year to this year. It’s just a big difference. I’m really excited about getting back and going to work. Just to be able to see what these guys are able to bring to the team this year and go out and try to bring something to Jacksonville that’s never been done before.”

Clemons struggled from an NFL perspective last year, ranking next to last among 4-3 ends at Pro Football Focus. However, he ranked inside low-end DL2 territory in fantasy scoring. So long as the snaps are there, the IDP value will be as well.

The questions don’t stop there. Tackle Sen’Derrick Marks trailed only Ndamukong Suh of the Miami Dolphins in fantasy points last year among defensive tackles, but tore his ACL late in the year. Young end Ryan Davis posted 6.5 sacks last year, but did so in fewer than 100 snaps. Health and role will play big parts for those players this year, making them names to monitor as training camp gets underway.

Linebackers

The injuries in Jacksonville haven’t been confined to the defensive front, as long-time IDP stalwart Paul Posluszny was felled by a torn pectoral muscle halfway through last season. The 30-year-old insisted to Paul Cawley of WTAJ-TV he’s healthy and ready to roll this year.

“Now, I’m at the point in my career where you treat everyday as if it’s your last. I mean you give maximum effort, give everything you can, and learn as much as you can,” said Posluszny. “I mean, we love this game so much, and we know that it can be taken at any point, so you try to maximize everything you have.”

If that’s the case, Posluzny’s top-five fantasy upside and relatively modest ADP makes him a player to target, especially for IDP owners who first address the defensive line.

Weak-side linebacker Telvin Smith may not weigh 220 pounds soaking wet, but that didn’t stop Smith from faring very well as a rookie, racking up 104 tackles and holding up surprisingly well against the run. Smith was a top-10 IDP option at his position from Week 12 on last year, and he’s very much on the LB2 radar in 2015.

Defensive Backs

Despite 114 total tackles in his second NFL season, strong safety Jonathan Cyprien was something of an IDP disappointment in 2014, finishing outside the top 25 among defensive backs thanks to a lack of big plays. John Oehser of the team’s website tabbed Cyprien as a player who needs to improve in 2015.

“If there is a defensive player in a similar situation to (Luke) Joeckel, it’s Cyprien,” Oehser said. “A second-round selection in the 2013 NFL Draft – the first for General Manager David Caldwell and Head Coach Gus Bradley – Cyprien was expected to be a core player and building block. Like Joeckel, Cyprien has shown potential but also like Joeckel he has been more inconsistent than is ideal.”

Cyprien’s upside in the Jacksonville defense is substantial, but as we saw last year so is the risk involved in trusting him as an IDP DB1.

Tennessee Titans Team Report

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If there is a player to target on the Tennessee Titans for redraft maybe it is TE Delanie Walker. He quietly finished 9th in TE scoring last season.

If there is a player to target on the Tennessee Titans for redraft maybe it is TE Delanie Walker. He quietly finished 9th in TE scoring last season.

QB Marcus Mariota

Not convinced that Zach Mettenberger was the answer at quarterback, the Titans used the 2nd overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft to acquire Marcus Mariota. The Oregon product was touted for his accuracy, arm strength and ability as a runner in college but comes to the NFL with little experience running a pro-style offense. While Mariota rates as a solid dynasty prospect, we aren’t sold on his ability to emerge as anything more than a low end QB2 as a rookie. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt will have to adapt the offensive philosophy to suit Mariota’s experience as a no-huddle, spread-offense quarterback at Oregon. That is easier said than done. Rookie quarterbacks have generally have success when aided by a solid offensive line, a strong running game and some decent playmaking options in the receiving game. The Titans have question marks in all three areas. It takes a leap of faith to predict that Mariota will provide consistent fantasy production in 2015.

RB Bishop Sankey

As the first running back taken in the 2014 draft, Sankey joined the Titans with the expectation that he would emerge as a solid starter in his rookie season. However, his production failed to meet those expectations and there has to be some major concern in Tennessee that Sankey will never live up to his draft status. At just 5’9″ and 2009 pounds with solid but not great speed and marginal elusiveness, he looked overmatched as a rookie, failing to relegate veteran retread Shonn Greene to a purely backup role. By season’s end, Sankey had amassed just 572 rushing yards while averaging 3.7 YPC and finding the end zone twice. He was also only marginally more productive as a receiver, catching 18 of his 24 targets for 133 yards. During the offseason, the Titans beefed up their offensive line and used a 5th round pick on Minnesota running back David Cobb while drafting fullback Jalston Fowler in the 4th round. With the offense more heavily tilted to a power rushing attack, Sankey is not guaranteed to win the starting job from Cobb in 2015. He rates as a low end RB3 with some major risk and little upside given the state of the Titans offense. It’s worth remembering that the Titans view Dexter McCluster as a solid option in the passing game, further tainting Sankey’s fantasy value.

RB David Cobb

Taken in the 5th round of this year’s draft, Cobb has a chance to make an impact as a rookie on a Tennessee team that struggled mightily to run the ball effectively last season. Bishop Sankey failed to prove he was worthy of starting as a rookie in 2014, opening the door for the team to draft Cobb in 2015. At 5’11” and 229 pounds, Cobb has traits that are better suited to the physical running style that head coach Ken Whistenhunt wants to employ. While draft reports indicate that Cobb is a decent pass protector, he wasn’t much of a receiving threat at Minnesota, and that will limit his workload if he is unable to supplant Sankey in the starting lineup. However, he has a decent chance of making that happen and rates as a solid RB4 with some upside next season.

RB/WR Dexter McCluster

Signed prior to last season to a three-year, $9-million contract with $4.5-million in guarantees and another $3-million available through incentives, McCluster did his best to make the Titans look foolish to signing him to such an outlandish contract, gaining just 328 yards and scoring once on 66 touches while averaging 3.3 YPC and 7.6 YPR. Outside of the return game, McCluster never displayed any playmaking ability during his four years in Kansas City so it’s anybody’s guess as to why the Titans thought he would discover it as a Titan. While that’s bad enough, the situation seems even worse considering the Titans have indicated that they want to get him more involved in 2015. It goes without saying that McCluster has zero fantasy value.

WR Kendall Wright

After topping 1,000 receiving yards in his 2nd year in the league in 2013, Wright regressed badly in 2014, catching 57 of his 93 targets for 715 yards and six touchdowns. If it weren’t for the touchdowns, it would have truly been a disappointing season for Wright’s owners. As a slot receiver, his reception to target percentage of 61.2% is hardly awe inspiring and that holds true for his career average of 11.3 yards per reception. While a portion of his lack of production last season can be blamed on the Titans quarterback play and the fact that he missed two games, it is worth noting that the Titans weren’t a whole lot better at quarterback in 2013. Truth be told, the 5’10”, 195 pound Wright lacks playmaking ability and never should have been taken 20th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s a slot receiver who doesn’t get enough separation and has trouble finding the end zone with just 12 touchdowns in three years on 336 targets. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, he rates as a low upside, WR4 who could see his snap count reduced in favor of Harry Douglas, who was signed to a modest three year contract in the offseason.

WR Dorial Green-Beckham

Apparently not convinced that fellow man-child Justin Hunter would establish himself in 2014, the Titans acquired his replica in Dorial Green-Beckham in the 2nd round of this year’s draft. At 6’6″ and 225 pounds with solid speed and outstanding athletic ability, the sky is the limit for Green-Beckham. And he had plenty of time last year to stare at the sky because he missed the entire year after being suspended by Missouri. With off the field concerns and having missed a year, it is foolhardy to expect him to provide consistent production during his rookie year. In fact, it won’t be a surprise if his main role is on jump balls in the red zone. He rates as a decent option in dynasty leagues but is waiver wire material in redraft formats as a player whose fantasy output will be touchdown reliant playing on a team that will struggle on offense.

WR Justin Hunter

Million dollar body, 10 cent brain. Meet Justin Hunter. Already on notice in Tennessee given the team’s selection of Dorial Green-Beckham in the 2nd round of this year’s draft coupled with the free agent signings of Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks, as well as head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s cryptic comments that “you either get it or you won’t be in this league anymore”, Hunter may have cemented his spot in the doghouse with an offseason arrest for stabbing, cutting, malicious intent and felonious assault. That doesn’t sound very nice and there is a chance that it could lead to a suspension at some point in 2015. A freak athlete with solid size at 6’4″ and 210 pounds (he spent the offseason bulking up), it appears that the proverbial light will never go on for Hunter.

WR Hakeem Nicks

After busting in his only season with the Colts, catching a woeful 38 of his 68 targets for 405 yards and four touchdowns, Nicks joins the Titans in 2015 hoping to resurrect his once promising career. While that was likely a wise choice given the Titans lack of proven wide receivers, the truth is that Nicks isn’t guaranteed a roster spot. His contract only included $100,000 in guarantees. Last year highlighted his lack explosiveness, averaging a career low 10.7 yards per reception. He will compete with Justin Hunter, rookie 2nd round pick Dorial Green-Beckham and Harry Douglas to play outside with Kendall Wright manning the slot position. Since he is just 27 and was once expected to emerge as one of the league’s top 10 wide receivers, Nicks is worth monitoring in the preseason.

WR Harry Douglas

After a reasonably solid six-year stint in Atlanta, Douglas was signed to a three-year, $11.25-million contract by the Titans in the offseason. Although he mainly operated out of the slot for the Falcons, that position is occupied by Kendall Wright in Tennessee so Douglas is expected to play both inside and outside in 2015 and he has had some access in that type of role, catching 85 passes for 1,067 yards and a pair of scores in 2013. While that’s the optimistic side of Douglas’ story, we expect that he was signed to provide depth at wide receiver more than anything. The Titans would love for 3rd year player Justin Hunter and rookie 2nd round pick Dorial Green-Beckham to emerge as outside threats with Wright continuing to man the slot. Also in the mix to play outside is former Giant and Colt Hakeem Nicks. It’s a muddled mess for Tennessee at receiver heading into training camp. Unless Douglas somehow emerges with a meaningful role, we can’t endorse him as fantasy worthy in 2015.

TE Delanie Walker

In his first season with the Titans in 2013, Walker finished as the 12th ranked fantasy tight end. Last year, he ranked 9th. What’s in store for Walker in 2015? Let’s go out on a limb and predict another lower tier TE1 ranking. The Titans will swap out a host of pretenders at quarterback for Marcus Mariota (okay, maybe that’s not being fair to Zach Mettenberger) and some pieces have been moved around at wide receiver, but overall the situation remains very similar to 2014. While it’s hard to fall in love with a 30-year old tight end coming off career highs in targets (106), receptions (63) and yards (890) playing in what figures to be an offense that will rank in the lower third of the league, you could do worse than Walker. Although his upside is limited, his floor is as a mid-tier TE2. We’re fine grabbing him as a lower TE1 due to his low risk factor.