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Scott Fish Bowl SFB8 Fantasy Football Draft Preparation

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Scott Fish Bowl
The Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8) draft kicked off Monday at 11:00am Eastern, and I am in the Norm Peterson league of the Cheers / Seinfeld conference.

Never heard of the Scott Fish Bowl? It is one of the most fun fantasy football expert leagues (and in this case expert + fan competition) to participate in. There is no money at stake, but this 900 person event does raise considerable funds for charity through FantasyCares.net. It is an awesome event for the fantasy football community.

Unique League Rules

This is a large overall competition but it is broken down into 12-team leagues. Focusing on the individual league aspect, here are some key rules to give you some context to the draft results:

  • Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex spots, maximum 1 Flex a QB
  • 22 roster spots so it is a fairly deep league, especially considering no K or DEF
  • QB scoring 6 points per TD, -4 point per INT – very punitive
  • reception scoring 0.5 points all positions, except 1.0 points for TE
  • first down scoring 0.5 points per rushing or receiving, except 1.0 points for TE

Pretty unique, isn’t it? So we can start 2 QB but the interceptions are killers. It is a lot of weekly starters. TE are added value with the double points for receptions and first downs relative to RB and WR. And, points for first downs!

First Down Scoring

Preparing for the first down stat scoring, which is not a very common fantasy points category, took some thought. I considered pulling 2017 player stats for first downs from my database and inputting them into Draft Buddy, but that wouldn’t be exceptionally helpful. Historical stats will match to players from last year, but not match to projections for the upcoming season which is what I use to help generate my cheatsheets.

Instead, I reviewed the first down stats to get a sense how impactful this category is on the scoring. It is fairly significant, mostly because it contributes primarily to RB, WR and TE scoring, but not QB unless they run a lot. Note, no points for a passing first down.

Sometimes you to use a little ingenuity to get your custom cheatsheet and draft tool (Draft Buddy) to give you the best results. In this case, I goosed up the reception points to account for receiving first downs, and gave some points for rushing attempts to account for rushing first downs.

For example, my analysis suggested a relationship of WR receiving first downs about 70% of reception totals, so I added 0.35 points per reception (to the existing 0.5). That is 0.5 per first down x 70% = 0.35. I did similar for the first down scoring for each type and position.

D-I-Y Average Draft Position Data

I have the 12th pick in the draft. Buddy Jim Day, a.k.a. @Fantasytaz, organized some pre-SFB8 draftmasters drafts to allow players some practice drafting, from which I compiled ADP you can find in the tweet below, and Google Sheets document.

In my practice draft I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, but as SFB8 got closer there seemed to be some buzz as to the QB values going up. Everyone wants to start two QB, and no one wants to be left with sketchy QB options as likely to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns each week. So, I was hopeful to get Rodgers again in my real draft, and he is the only QB I would consider at that spot.

Custom Cheatsheets

With the rules and scoring input, plus ADP, Draft Buddy kicked out custom cheatsheets for me. Presented below are the Top 12 at each position. These are based on the default projections in Draft Buddy, from FF Today, so I won’t necessarily draft exactly as shown on the cheatsheets.

In fact, I would not normally do that anyway, because I look at each draft as sort of a living, evolving experience, where opinions and strategies change as it progresses. Perhaps more on that another time. I will get into more specifics about some of my decisions made through the draft, but if you want a sneak peek at my picks, currently through four rounds, you can review the draft report.

I will post my copy of Draft Buddy for this draft to our download page for our Draft Buddy members to review if interested.

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

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J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez is absolutely raking. A bit of a health risk and new team deflated his value back in March, but now Andy has him comfortably inside the first round of his re-do fantasy baseball mock draft.

With the All-Star break here, fantasy baseball owners have a moment to catch their breath. For me, it’s a chance to look back and wonder what it would be like to start over (if only).

Needless to say and as usual, there are some surprises through the first half of the season. With the magic of my time machine, I’m able to go back and redraft my fantasy baseball teams.

Reviewing Average Draft Position data from the beginning of the year, I decide whether or not each player is worthy of another pick this time around, and if not who I would draft instead. This is a 12-team standard 5×5 roto league using a snake style draft.

I will start with Round 1 and in a second article run through Round 2. Here we go!

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

1. Mike Trout Preseason ADP #1, Mike Trout

What can you say about Mike Trout that hasn’t already been said? Last year he finished 4th in MVP voting, his worst since 2012. He’s already a 2x MVP and a seven time all-star. His offensive numbers this year are slightly ahead of his MVP years. He’s still running and even more staggering, he’s getting walked more than he’s striking out (79 walks to 78 strikeouts as of July 10). To have that much power and still take that many walks brings flashbacks to Barry Bonds. He is on the trajectory to be Bonds’ equal if not pass him. Trout is still, no doubt, the unanimous number one pick overall.

2. Mookie Betts Preseason ADP #2, Jose Altuve

I really went back and forth with this between Altuve and Betts. I ultimately went with Betts for one reason – power. Betts has 22 home runs to Altuve’s nine and scored 11 more runs. The difference between the two in RBI and batting average is negligible.

Betts is the second best fantasy outfielder in the game. Altuve is the best fantasy option at second base. In the end, I leaned to the power from Betts with everything else almost being a wash. You can’t really go wrong with either player.

3. Jose Altuve Preseason ADP #3, Nolan Arenado

As mentioned above, I think it’s a true toss-up between Betts and Altuve for the second best offensive player in the game right now. Altuve is going to score runs, hit for average and steal bases. Arenado will definitely hit for more power and will drive in more runs but I still can’t get the “Coors factor” out of my head. Playing 81 games in Denver is definitely an asset to Arenado and I don’t think the Rockies lineup is as deep as the Astros. To me, this was why I’d take Altuve over Arenado the second time around.

4. Nolan Arenado Preseason ADP #4, Trea Turner

Like Betts and Altuve, I really struggled to pick Arenado over Manny Machado. Their stats are almost identical.

NameABRHHRRBISBAVGOPS
Arenado321589822632.305.391
Machado3464410721606.309.382

The key difference is runs. Arenado plays for a team currently winning ball games. Machado simply doesn’t have much of anything on the Baltimore Orioles to help him, especially in the runs category. Neither one of them are going to steal bases. The one factor you could figure in is position. Machado has both third and shortstop eligibility while Arenado would only have third. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up.

5. Manny Machado Preseason ADP #5, Clayton Kershaw

It wasn’t the year to pay up for baseball’s consensus top pitcher with back issues limiting him to 69 innings to date. Kershaw is an easy exclude from my re-do first round.

Even though Machado has third base and shortstop eligibility, I still drafted Arenado ahead of him. That said, I love Machado’s passion for the game and the numbers he puts up are fantastic. His team, quite frankly, stinks. The very real possibility still exists that Machado will get traded to a contending team, where he’d have protection around him and pushing his fantasy value higher. Right now, he’s the only threat in the Orioles lineup and the league knows it.

6. Jose Ramirez Preseason ADP #6, Bryce Harper

Ah, Mr. Harper. At the beginning of the season I wrote Harper isn’t worthy of a first round pick and I’ve turned out to be right. Insert pat on the back here. Harper started out on fire but has cooled considerably since May and finds not only himself, by the Washington Nationals in a tailspin.

Enter Jose Ramirez who has been as consistent as he was last year. He isn’t flashy but can flat out hit. His 24 home runs are fourth in MLB and he’s driven in 59 runs. The thing that makes Ramirez appealing is the fact he gets to pad his stats against the worst division in baseball – the AL Central. Facing the “staffs” of the Twins, Tigers, White Sox and Royals is like an all-state varsity player facing a JV squad.

7. J.D. Martinez Preseason ADP #7, Paul Goldschmidt

Although Goldy has been hitting the cover off the ball the past couple of weeks, Martinez is exactly what the Boston Red Sox needed. He leads the majors in home runs with 28 and RBI with 77. Oh, and he’s also hitting a solid .331. Playing DH primarily allows Martinez to stay healthy, which was a concern when he hit the free agent market this past off season. You know with the lineup Boston can run out there, as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to continue to put up huge numbers and I think may be a Top 12-15 player overall next year.

8. Francisco Lindor Preseason ADP #8, Giancarlo Stanton

The hype before the season was Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton possibly hitting 100 home runs combined. There is no doubt that Stanton has held up his end of the power but its feast or famine with him. He’s struck out 122 times and to put that in perspective, the league leader is Yoan Moncada with 126.

We’ve talked the left side of the infield most of this early draft but arguably the best shortstop out there may indeed by Francisco Lindor. He checks all the boxes as far as offense goes: runs, avg, rbi, home runs, and stolen bases. As with Jose Ramirez, he plays the horrible AL Central. The Indians are going to continue to run away with the division and Lindor will definitely get his.

9. Luis Severino Preseason ADP #9, Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon signed a big contract extension with the Colorado Rockies in the off-season. His numbers aren’t bad but not near what they had been the past couple of years. At the beginning of the year, you’d definitely take Blackmon but not now.

Severino has been the best pitcher in the American League and if it weren’t for Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball this year. He’s fourth in the majors with 123.1 innings, first in wins, seventh in strikeouts, and tied for third in WAR with 5.1. With the Yankees offense and the bullpen behind him (Robertson, Greene and Chapman) he is going to win his fair share of games. I have to admit, I had deGrom down but the fact that the Mets stink and the Yankees don’t made me pick Severino.

10. Max Scherzer Preseason ADP #10, Mookie Betts

I have already moved Betts up to number two in this fantasy baseball mock draft, so I’ll go ahead and focus on why Mad Max would be the 10th overall pick. He simply is doing Max things again this year. His record is 11-5 and he leads the league in innings pitched (127.2) and strikeouts (177). He also is sporting a 2.33 ERA. He has about 13 starts left which will possibly allow him to reach 300 strikeouts.

I had Scherzer rated ahead of Kershaw, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber at the beginning of the year and if it weren’t for Severino’s wins, he’d be a pick ahead of where he is now.

11. Aaron Judge Preseason ADP #11, Max Scherzer

We’re getting down to the end of the first round and looking at it from a fantasy standpoint, you have to start asking yourself what your strategy is. Is it hitter/hitter, pitcher/hitter, or pitcher/pitcher? With Sale, Kluber and Justin Verlander all still available, I think you need to go with a hitter and that hitter is Aaron Judge.

I thought Judge would take a step back after his break out season last year but that hasn’t been the case. He’s hit 25 home runs, driven in 60 and putting up a solid .281 batting average. He’s also nabbed six bags. Not bad for a power hitter of Judge’s capability. To get Judge with the 11th pick and able to get a stud starting pitcher is the best case at this point.

12. Corey Kluber Preseason ADP #12, Chris Sale

Please understand that this was honestly a coin flip. Sale has established himself as one of the top five pitchers in the game. He’s on pace for over 200+ strikeouts again this year and will undoubtedly get 15-18 wins.

The turning point for me though taking Kluber over Sale is two-fold. One, the Indians’ AL Central division is terrible and Kluber can add to his dominance facing those horrible teams. Sale gets to face the Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, but he also has to face the New York Yankees, a minus in Sale’s column.

Two, Kluber is a control freak. He’s walked only 15 hitters this season. Sale has allowed twice as many, which is still good, but, twice as many. In the AL Central a few extra base runners is not a big deal. In the AL East, it could be the difference between a win and a loss.

So there you have it. The pre-All Star Game “do over” fantasy baseball draft. Undoubtedly, there will be some disagreement but that is completely fine. Make your case in the comments. Next time, round two.

Extra Innings

I really thought that the Minnesota Twins had a shot to be in the Wild Card mix this year. Boy was I wrong. I drank the Kool-Aid and now have a tummy ache because of it. I’m a sucker for a feel good story though so if the Twins aren’t going to make it, I’d like to see the Seattle Mariners finally get back to the playoffs.

Not since 2001 have the M’s played post-season baseball, and they’ve had really good talent in the organization but hasn’t got them over the hump; namely King Felix.

Felix Hernandez has given everything he possibly can/could to the M’s and hasn’t sniffed the post-season. He’s finally in a position where there is some light at the end of the tunnel. General Manager Jerry DiPoto has master minded trade after trade trying to give the Emerald City another shot at playoff redemption. Good luck to the M’s and King Felix. Hopefully this is your year.

Lucky and Unlucky Pitchers Due For A Correction

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Luck plays a part in a pitcher’s stat line. Chris identifies pitchers who were extra lucky last season (like Stephen Strasburg) or unlucky (Chris Archer), expecting that luck evens out, and to use to our advantage this year.

The only sure thing about luck is that it will change

Famed playwright and raconteur, Wilson Mizner

That quote sums up what I am aiming to apply to this fantasy baseball analysis. I’m looking for starting pitchers that have been either lucky or unlucky in 2017, and digging deeper to see if I can take advantage in 2018.

There are a lot of metrics I like to look at to get a feeling if a pitcher was lucky or unlucky in the previous season.

Earned Run Average minus Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (ERA-xFIP)
I like to think of xFIP as the pitcher’s “true” ERA, or his ERA based on the things he can control (strikeouts and walks), and removes the things he has little to no control over (defense and BABIP). Subtracting xFIP from the pitcher’s ERA gives us an idea of whether he is lucky or unlucky. If the pitcher’s ERA is higher than xFIP it tells me that the pitcher may be unlucky and is actually pitching better than his ERA indicates. The opposite can be said if his ERA is lower than his xFIP.

Outside of ERA-xFIP, I like to look at batted ball metrics. We know that pitchers do not have complete control over what happens to a baseball once it’s put into play, but they do have some control over the type of batted ball they allow (ground ball, line drive or fly ball).

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
A pitcher with a high BABIP is seeing more balls fall in for hits thus raising his ERA and WHIP. Things should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA and WHIP.

Left On Base Percentage (LOB%)
A LOB% lower than 72.1% indicates that he is allowing more runners to score than the league average thus increasing his ERA. Like BABIP, this should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA.

Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
Ground balls are the best for a pitcher. That is because they tend to go for hits more often than fly balls (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s ground ball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. I like to compare the pitcher’s GB% rate to the league average and his career average to get any idea if luck played a role.

Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/FB)
Pitchers generally do not have control over their HR/FB from year to year. The ballpark that a pitcher pitches in can have an effect on their HR/FB rate. A high HR/FB indicates that the pitcher is serving up more home runs than normal and thus their ERA is probably high. Over the course of the season their HR/FB should lower towards the league average and lower their ERA.

Here are the MLB totals for these metrics over the last three seasons, plus the 10-year average. These results are from starting pitchers only, no relievers.

Metric2015201620172008-2017
ERA-xFIP0.100.100.080.09
BABIP0.2970.2980.2990.296
LOB%72.3%72.2%72.1%71.8%
GB%45.2%44.3%44.0%44.3%
HR/FB11.6%13.3%14.2%11.2%
Innings28,223.127,412.226,787.128,352.1

Here are a few things that interest me from this data:

  • Total innings pitched by starters is going down each season.
  • All of these metrics are pretty consistent over the past three seasons, except HR/FB which appears to be steadily climbing.

For this exercise I went to FanGraphs and exported 2017 stats for starting pitchers only (134 pitchers). I then simply determined if each pitcher was lucky/normal/unlucky for each metric. To determine lucky vs. unlucky I came up with these guidelines. Anything in-between was considered “normal”.

Metric Lucky Unlucky
ERA-xFIP < -0.5 > 0.5
BABIP < .289 > .309
LOB% > 73.1% < 71.1%
GB% > 45.0% < 43.0%
HR/FB < 12.2% > 16.2%

For the players identified below, sabermetric stats are from FanGraphs.com, 2018 projections are from Steamer, and ADP is from FantasyPros on March 7, 2018.

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
ADP SP #33, Overall #119

SeasonGSIPWLKERAWHIP5X5
201722118.2741324.251.30$1
2018 (Projected)24137.01071453.611.28$12
SeasonInningsERAWHIPERA-xFIPBABIPLOB%GB%HR/FB
2015125.23.221.19-0.28.28875.0%46.5%9.3%
201681.03.221.540.16.38381.4%57.3%11.9%
2017118.24.251.301.08.33067.6%61.3%12.7%

In 2017, McCullers was one of nine pitchers that had his xFIP a whole run lower than his ERA. Combine that with his high BABIP and low LOB%, and you could say that McCullers was quite unlucky in 2017.

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, he’s always been a groundball pitcher with a career 54.5% GB% (league average is 44.3%) and a 2.21 GB/FB (league average is 1.26). When he does let a ball get hit in the air it tends to stay in the park with a career HR/FB of 10.8% (league average is 13.0%). Those facts combined with the thought that his luck should turn indicates that he is someone you should not shy away from during your draft.

Chris Archer, TB
ADP SP #16, Overall #55

SeasonGSIPWLKERAWHIP5X5
201734201.010122494.071.26$9
2018 (Projected)32196.012112223.491.17$26
SeasonInningsERAWHIPERA-xFIPBABIPLOB%GB%HR/FB
2015212.03.231.140.22.29573.1%46.1%10.4%
2016201.14.021.240.61.29672.5%47.8%16.2%
2017201.04.071.260.72.32571.3%42.0%14.1%

In 2017, Archer brought you a lot of K’s and D’oh!’s as he struggled through an up and down season. A high BABIP (27th highest out of the 134 pitchers in this study) is the metric that sticks out the most. But, if you look at the others they are all leaning towards “unlucky.”

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, his xFIP in the first half of 2017 was 3.42 with an ERA of 3.95, while in the second half his ERA was higher at 4.27 but his xFIP was lower at 3.23, with the telling stat being HR/FB. In the second half his HR/FB was 18.0% compared to 10.4% in the first half. Prior to 2016 his HR/FB ratio was consistently below 11.7% even in the minors. My gut tells me that Archer just took a little longer to “right the ship” in 2017 but eventually got there in the second half. I’m expecting his 2018 numbers to end up more like his 2015 numbers.

BUYER BEWARE

Gio Gonzalez, WAS
ADP SP #38, Overall #140

SeasonGSIPWLKERAWHIP5X5
201732201.01591882.961.18$20
2018 (Projected)32190.012101704.171.37$4
SeasonInningsERAWHIPERA-xFIPBABIPLOB%GB%HR/FB
2015175.23.791.420.2.34172.1%53.8%5.9%
2016177.14.571.340.77.31667.6%47.6%12.5%
2017201.02.961.18-1.28.25881.6%45.8%11.1%

In 2017, Gio had the 7th lowest* ERA-xFIP of the 134 starting pitchers in this analysis. I’m pretty sure that you don’t need to be a card carrying member of SABR to see that Gio was very lucky last season. Along with his ERA-xFIP he had the 12th lowest BABIP and the 6th highest LOB%.

Why should you avoid drafting him at his current ADP in 2018? While enjoying metrics on the very lucky spectrum his 45.8% GB% was not far from his 47.5% career GB% and his 11.1% HR/FB was higher than his 9.3% career HR/FB. This all adds up to a big red flag telling me to avoid drafting him this year.

* The other six are, in order of lowest ERA-xFIP, Andrew Cashner, Chase Anderson, Ervin Santana, Jose Urena, Parker Bridwell and Lance Lynn. I selected Gonzalez because he has the highest ADP of the seven. Safe to say you should avoid these other six just the same. As I was putting this article together I nearly went entirely in the Buyer Beware direction.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS
ADP SP #6, Overall #27

SeasonGSIPWLKERAWHIP5X5
201728175.11542042.521.02$29
2018 (Projected)31188.01492163.451.15$28
SeasonInningsERAWHIPERA-xFIPBABIPLOB%GB%HR/FB
2015127.13.461.110.77.31170.7%42.2%12.4%
2016147.23.601.100.4.29473.6%39.5%10.6%
2017175.12.521.02-0.75.27477.9%46.8%8.7%

In 2017, Strasburg turned in arguably his best season with career lows in ERA and WHIP in 28 starts (most since 2014). Anytime someone has a “career year” you should take pause and evaluate whether or not luck played a role.

Why should you not immediately pencil him in as the #5 SP on the board? Although, Strasburg had a career best ERA (2.52) he had his career worst xFIP (3.27). Think about that for a second. His 2017 .274 BABIP was a good bit lower than his career .295 BABIP. His 8.7% HR/FB in 2017 was the 6th lowest of the 134 starting pitchers and also below his 10.9% career HR/FB.

Put it all together and you see why I’m asking you to temper your expectations for him in 2018. He’s going to be one of the better starters in any format but I’m comfortable passing on him at the top of the 3rd round and selecting someone like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom or Luis Severino later in 3rd or even taking Archer in 4th.

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