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Buy and Sell Advice for Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Justin Verlander

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Byron Buxton

It is early but Giles advice is sell Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. He will not get enough plate appearances batting in the bottom of the order to make the fantasy impact expected of a Top 75 draft pick.

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Toronto is paying more to players sitting in the hospital or on the bench than some smaller market clubs are paying their entire team. This has created some interesting fantasy options, if you navigate it correctly. Troy Tulowitzki is on the 60-day DL and Josh Donaldson can’t throw a ball due to the ominous sounding injury – dead arm.

Dead arm is a shoulder ailment usually associated with pitchers not fielders. This injury has been nagging Donaldson throughout spring training, although it really came to light Opening Day, and it is worrisome that he hasn’t been able recover.

Donaldson is a major concern because he was drafted in the third round and is already hurt. I often wish in a case like this the team would put the player on the DL and let him heal. Long term that would give you better fantasy numbers. Instead Toronto moved Donaldson to DH.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold on to Donaldson for now and hope he recovers and gives you the season you invested in. If you try and sell you are going to get pennies on the dollar. I wouldn’t look to buy either, as I don’t have faith Donaldson will rebound over the short term and I am unsure of his long term prognosis.

Yangervis Solarte, TOR

The big winner as a result of the injury troubles in Toronto is Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has always been a better real baseball player than a fantasy option, but he showed promise in San Diego in 2016 slashing .286/.341/.467.

An oblique injury in 2017 sidelined him for a month and slowed his growth. Solarte also struggled to get the ball over the fence in Petco Park, one of the worst batters parks out there. I was intrigued when the Blue Jays gave up two valuable prospects to acquire Solarte. With all the injuries Solarte will likely bat cleanup and offers multi-position flexibility.

Rogers Centre isn’t known as a great home run park but will be a big step up from Petco. Solarte hit his first home run on Saturday and already drove in a couple of RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
He is 76 percent owned in CBS leagues, but I imagine his owners don’t know what they have. Look to add him for the short term, especially if you need to replace Ian Kinsler or haven’t yet found a viable spot holder for Daniel Murphy.

Byron Buxton, MIN

Byron Buxton is batting 8th right now, and that should worry all Buxton owners. He is batting far lower in the order than any other batter with a Top 75 average draft position. If Buxton doesn’t move up in the order soon then you overpaid for him.

The only way a player can hit home runs, steal bases and drive in runs is to get up to bat. That is opportunity, and opportunity is very valuable for fantasy baseball success.

Guys who bat at the bottom of the order lose plate appearances. Joe Douglas at RotoGraphs calculated that each drop in the order costs a player 14 PA over a season. To realize how much it hurts a player, understand that a player batting eighth loses at least 100 plate appearances during the season when compared to the heart of the lineup.

So Buxton faces a greater uphill battle to fantasy superstardom than just stealing bases and hitting home runs. The only way Buxton moves up in the lineup is to cut his K-rate and increase his on-base percentage

He isn’t off to a great start, striking out 4 times in his first 11 trips to the plate. I think Buxton can do enough to jump Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar in the order, but it is a stretch to assume Buxton will take over leadoff duties this year, an ideal position for someone with Buxton’s speed.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I would look to sell any shares you have while the optimists look past the looming troubles. If you’re lucky you may be able to trade Buxton for Tommy Pham or Whit Merrifield. Both have lower ceilings than Buxton, but are batting second and have a higher floor.

Javier Baez, CHC

The Cubs played a 17 inning game Friday night. If they do that often enough the Cubs will have enough at-bats for all their players. That is the best hope you have for getting the numbers you expected from Javier Baez. Assuming the Cubs play mostly the more traditional nine inning games then Baez faces the same dilemma as Buxton.

Playing for the Cubs is a blessing and a curse. Baez plays for a very good Cubs team and every guy in the lineup hits and gets on base. By virtue of being a Cub, Baez drove in 75 RBI and scored 75 times in 2017. Baez also showed enough power and speed to hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bags.

However, I am not sure if Baez can repeat those numbers. The biggest problem Baez faces is plate appearances. The Cubs have too many players deserving of every day at-bats. Joe Maddon did a great job utilizing each player last year, but finding AB for Baez, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward isn’t easy.

Happ offers the most potential and will see the most playing time. This really hurts Baez in fantasy, because he loses 20 or more starts this year. He sat on Saturday so Zobrist could get a day at second base. This will be a regular occurrence all season.

Baez further hurts himself with a 28 percent strikeout rate and .276 OBP. On Opening Day Maddon slotted Baez in as the 8th batter and that isn’t likely to change unless he can get on base more regularly. As noted with Buxton, the lower a player bats in the order the fewer PA they receive over a season.

When you combine the position competition with his low place in the order, Baez becomes a guy you don’t want on your team. It isn’t difficult imagining Baez only getting 500 AB. If this happens he could score 15 fewer runs and drive in 15 fewer RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
Baez has strong name recognition and looked good last year, so it isn’t too late to trade him away. It may be a reach, but I would offer Baez for Rich Hill or Trevor Bauer and then pick up the earlier mentioned Solarte or Tim Anderson off the waiver wire to fill your middle infield position. Anderson is off to a quick start and only 50 percent owned in CBS leagues at the time of writing this.

Justin Verlander, HOU

Justin Verlander had a good start on Opening Day. He didn’t allow any runs through six innings of work, while striking out five in a respectable 90 pitches. Several analysts had Verlander slotted as a bust this year. Both SI and Rotoballer cited Verlander’s 2017 xFIP as an omen of things to come. However, recall there was a night and day difference in Verlander’s stats between his Detroit and Houston games last year.

In 2017, Verlander’s first half xFIP was an unattractive 5.03, but his second half dropped to 3.28. Few pitchers improve as the season rolls along, so Verlander’s numbers are notable. Verlander talked often about Houston’s advanced analytics helping him improve, and Houston’s brain trust was hard at work when they used that wild shift against Joey Gallo.

I think we may see Verlander’s best season since 2011. Verlander wasn’t perfect in his first start, but with Houston’s talent backing him up in the field and driving in runs at the plate we may see Verlander’s first 20 win season in 7 years. That will be accompanied with the usual strike outs and a sub-3.50 ERA.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
His price may be higher now than draft day, but if you are looking to trade for an ace then Verlander could still have the lowest price out there. If you own him then hold tight. You can sleep well knowing you acquired a 35-year-old starting pitcher who looks more robot than man these days.

Fantasy Baseball 2014 Consensus Top Prospects

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Minnesota Twins minor league CF Byron Buxton, the top prospect in MLB as ranked by 13 of 15 lists, including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law. August 5, 2013; Photographer: Mark LoMoglio/Icon SMI

Minnesota Twins minor league CF Byron Buxton, the top prospect in MLB as ranked by 13 of 15 lists, including Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law. August 5, 2013; Photographer: Mark LoMoglio/Icon SMI

One of my favorite tasks prepping for the upcoming fantasy baseball season is compiling my consensus top prospects list, a ranking of the next best players in baseball. This is the fifth year publishing the list. Feel free to go back and check the top prospects from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, and you’ll quickly see what a major impact these players have on the fantasy baseball landscape today. The top of this list are the guys you want to build your deep keeper and dynasty league fantasy baseball teams around for years to come.

This year I used 15 publicly available “top 100” prospect lists to form the basis of my list, although there were changes to the lists included in the consensus from last year. Players had to be named on at least eight of the lists to make the final cut, with two notable exceptions. The older professional players (Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu), who never played in a team’s minor league system, were included in this analysis despite appearing on less than eight lists.

Players were given 100 points for a 1st place listing, 99 points for second, 98 for third and on and on down to 1 point for a selection as number 100.

Each list that formed the consensus is identified in the key below. Each player’s rank for that list is indicated and their average score is listed last. Scores are based on the number of lists they appear. I realize this simple system has the potential to skew the results of those picked on fewer lists, but overall it provides a good snapshot of the guys you should target for your rosters.

 

Player
 BA BP DI DL FA FG FS KL MLB PG 361 RA SC TPA TBH SCORE
1. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 99.8
2. SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS
 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 2 2 1 2 7 – 2 2 98.6
3. OF Oscar Taveras, STL
 3 3 3 5 4 3 5 5 3 3 3 5 2 3 3 97.5
4. RHP Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
 4 – 3 10 – – – – 4 – – 7 – 95.4
5. RHP Archie Bradley, AZ
 9 9 11 9 11 5 3 9 5 4 4 6 7 4 6 94.2
6. SS Javier Baez, CHC
 5 4 9 13 5 4 10 7 7 5 5 2 13 11 8 93.8
7. SS Carlos Correa, HOU
 7 5 3 11 7 9 6 4 8 6 7 16 3 12 7 93.6
8. 3B Miguel Sano, MIN
 6 14 7 8 2 10 7 8 4 8 11 4 14 18 4 92.7
9. RHP Taijuan Walker, SEA
 11 8 17 7 8 7 2 16 6 15 6 3 9 6 5 92.6
10. SS Addison Russell, OAK
 14 7 6 10 6 8 12 3 12 9 8 11 4 8 9 92.5
11. SS Francisco Lindor, CLE
 13 6 5 22 9 12 14 6 10 11 14 19 5 15 10 89.6
12. 3B Kris Bryant, CHC
 8 17 12 18 16 6 16 15 9 7 9 9 10 14 25 88.3
13. OF Gregory Polanco, PIT
 10 24 14 20 13 17 13 13 13 18 10 26 6 5 15 86.5
14. RHP Noah Syndergaard, NYM
 16 11 20 23 15 18 15 24 11 26 17 13 16 9 12 84.6
15. RHP Jonathan Gray, COL
 12 16 8 26 29 16 20 12 14 13 25 14 22 10 19 83.9
16. RHP Robert Stephenson, CIN
 19 22 28 17 17 11 9 29 19 14 20 12 29 22 13 82.3
17. OF George Springer, HOU
 18 20 19 15 12 14 11 19 21 44 22 15 20 16 18 82.1
18. RHP Kevin Gausman, BAL
 20 10 27 28 19 25 17 23 31 17 18 10 15 30 11 80.9
19. RHP Lucas Giolito, WAS
 21 13 13 36 14 13 18 21 44 10 28 20 17 13 22 80.8
20. RHP Dylan Bundy, BAL
 15 15 16 24 28 19 38 31 20 16 15 8 18 19 23 80.7
21. RHP Jameson Taillon, PIT
 22 19 30 14 22 20 8 27 16 48 12 17 32 17 14 79.8
22. 3B Nick Castellanos, DET
 25 37 18 16 18 37 25 32 15 24 16 18 – 24 17 78.0
23. RHP Mark Appel, HOU
 39 21 15 25 33 26 30 11 17 34 13 29 12 20 34 77.1
24. RHP Kyle Zimmer, KC
 23 34 10 12 32 24 19 10 25 70 21 27 11 26 24 76.5
25. OF Albert Almora, CHC
 36 25 38 27 31 21 26 28 18 12 27 21 8 38 16 76.2
26. C Travis d’Arnaud, NYM
 38 48 33 21 23 39 27 36 22 20 19 23 – 21 31 72.4
27. RHP Carlos Martinez, STL
 31 – 30 21 – 23 – – 22 31 66 – 31 20 70.4
28. RHP Eddie Butler, COL
 24 26 23 43 51 15 53 17 41 25 34 32 28 32 44 68.5
29. RHP Yordano Ventura, KC
 26 12 62 19 37 33 43 50 35 23 29 30 23 37 29 68.5
30. C Austin Hedges, SD
 27 18 32 39 57 34 49 33 24 27 23 42 37 41 32 66.7
31. OF Jorge Soler, CHC
 41 45 22 32 25 49 31 26 49 41 24 25 53 46 26 65.3
32. SS Billy Hamilton, CIN
 43 49 43 6 20 60 22 52 37 32 – – 33 33 65.2
33. RHP Aaron Sanchez, TOR
 32 31 36 34 45 22 28 30 23 97 43 24 45 28 21 65.1
34. SS Corey Seager, LAD
 37 44 26 29 36 28 36 18 34 67 33 51 25 67 30 63.6
35. OF Clint Frazier, CLE
 48 36 51 59 24 45 29 45 48 19 40 22 38 27 38 63.1
36. LHP Andrew Heaney, MIA
 30 30 35 44 40 31 50 34 29 59 36 38 42 45 43 61.9
37. RHP Alex Meyer, MIN
 45 32 60 35 43 23 33 62 28 35 46 34 40 34 36 61.9
38. RHP Tyler Glasnow, PIT
 46 42 21 63 53 43 37 20 27 51 52 45 19 23 52 61.4
39. SS Raul Mondesi, KC
 47 29 25 46 27 46 60 22 38 43 44 46 26 55 55 60.4
40. 1B Jose Dariel Abreu, CWS
 29 – 4 26 – 62 – – 66 – – 66 – 58.8
41. OF Jackie Bradley, BOS
 50 23 42 38 89 35 56 51 33 42 26 52 – 43 47 56.2
42. 3B Maikel Franco, PHI
 17 52 55 31 52 27 47 63 26 56 49 56 24 35 89 55.7
43. LHP Max Fried, SD
 53 55 40 62 47 61 45 48 43 21 38 43 27 63 41 55.2
44. SS Rougned Odor , TEX
 42 39 40 46 30 52 64 59 37 55 33 59 59 40 54.2
45. OF Austin Meadows, PIT
 49 89 29 53 58 48 24 35 45 66 64 48 52 25 27 53.5
46. RHP Marcus Stroman, TOR
 55 27 50 – 42 56 55 58 55 28 61 39 31 58 50 53.5
47. LHP Julio Urias, LAD
 51 35 24 55 34 73 57 14 64 38 58 28 41 75 66 53.5
48. OF Joc Pederson, LAD
 34 50 75 41 81 58 21 41 36 63 62 36 35 44 37 53.4
49. LHP Henry Owens, BOS
 40 69 58 54 54 72 44 42 30 33 – 61 21 29 60 53.4
50. RHP Kyle Crick, SF
 33 38 67 33 35 29 35 69 32 100 48 57 33 69 42 53.0
51. RHP Matt Wisler, SD
 44 47 45 57 63 41 41 39 78 31 54 40 49 53 39 52.9
52. RHP Kohl Stewart, MIN
 52 54 71 51 38 32 61 76 40 61 42 37 39 40 49 51.5
53. C Jorge Alfaro, TEX
 54 41 41 65 48 54 42 44 39 32 47 60 69 68 56 50.3
54. RHP Lucas Sims, ATL
 57 40 39 72 56 53 51 40 60 47 50 63 30 70 – 49.0
55. 3B Garin Cecchini, BOS
 74 51 63 47 41 51 34 53 57 53 39 31 58 84 45 48.9
56. OF Jonathan Singleton, HOU
 82 57 84 42 30 55 39 78 50 49 30 47 71 90 35 45.1
57. 3B Colin Moran, MIA
 61 74 47 48 82 65 40 55 51 74 – 54 46 51 46 44.3
58. C Gary Sanchez, NYY
 35 85 49 49 50 44 46 68 47 69 57 62 83 – 59 43.6
59. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, BAL
 65 61 52 67 – 36 – 43 68 64 86 – 36 60 51 43.6
60. 2B Kolten Wong, STL
 58 33 87 37 55 80 54 91 58 65 51 35 – 50 54 43.3
61. RHP C.J. Edwards, CHC
 28 81 53 79 71 78 59 67 42 60 – 53 44 36 65 42.7
62. RHP Hunter Harvey, BAL
 – 58 31 90 69 82 48 38 96 55 59 71 43 74 28 40.9
63. RHP Michael Foltynewicz, HOU
 59 43 81 50 83 57 75 70 54 52 56 87 47 48 48 40.3
64. RHP A.J. Cole, WAS
 – 53 74 100 73 47 72 65 69 29 73 41 93 76 74 38.4
65. OF David Dahl, COL
 94 100 54 87 44 38 73 47 71 30 85 49 51 – 85 36.1
66. SS J.P. Crawford, PHI
 78 – 34 74 76 50 70 46 – 81 100 57 57 69 35.0
67. SS Alen Hanson, PIT
 76 – 80 52 65 74 64 74 67 41 55 77 62 75 34.7
68. OF Eddie Rosario, MIN
 – 60 64 81 – 76 69 49 – 53 77 63 – 78 34.0
69. 1B Dominic Smith, NYM
 92 – 44 – 61 79 97 37 – 36 71 90 74 56 – 34.0
70. RHP Braden Shipley, AZ
 62 62 37 97 93 42 85 25 – 89 97 – 54 – 33.5
71. SS Chris Owings, AZ
 66 28 69 86 60 64 81 72 77 39 63 93 65 – 92 32.8
72. 3B D.J. Peterson, SEA
 85 65 64 59 70 32 – 88 92 94 83 67 42 57 31.9
73. RHP Nick Kingham, PIT
 64 80 66 – – 75 – 73 – 88 – 72 39 – 31.4
74. LHP James Paxton, SEA
 99 68 95 39 – 88 – – 37 56 95 53 31.0
75. RHP Jake Odorizzi, TB
 67 92 70 – 84 58 – 56 73 – 72 – 65 71 30.2
76. RHP Lance McCullers, HOU
 77 – 56 77 – 79 – 52 86 91 65 62 61 77 29.8
77. LHP Jesse Biddle, PHI
 71 94 85 88 40 78 77 53 75 60 70 96 47 – 29.2
78. C Blake Swihart, BOS
 73 73 46 – 99 66 – 56 61 58 92 85 84 71 72 29.0
79. RHP Taylor Guerrieri, TB
 – – 48 – 66 89 76 66 94 76 59 55 94 – 28.7
80. OF Phillip Ervin, CIN
 – 63 71 100 81 63 – – – 58 79 79 58 28.6
81. RHP Miguel Almonte, KC
 – 46 88 77 62 95 74 81 – 67 – 48 82 81 28.2
82. 2B Mookie Betts, BOS
 75 – 89 82 67 59 – 61 62 79 80 61 87 – 28.1
83. RHP Erik Johnson, CWS
 63 67 83 84 – 99 67 59 70 72 68 – – 73 27.8
84. RHP Rafael Montero, NYM
 68 – 69 78 94 66 60 85 65 86 78 52 79 27.7
85. 3B Stephen Piscotty, STL
 70 66 59 – 98 87 – 57 98 70 78 60 73 – 26.8
86. SS Hak-Ju Lee, TB
 – – 70 – 68 92 – 79 84 54 – 70 85 – 25.8
87. 2B Arismendy Alcantara, CHC
 100 83 58 72 52 71 71 89 93 79 – – 63 25.5
88. RHP Zach Lee, LAD
 95 84 57 76 – 71 90 75 63 – 75 76 – 80 24.5
89. RHP Allen Webster, BOS
 88 – 98 – 97 – 68 – 46 93 69 94 54 64 – 23.9
90. RHP Matt Barnes, BOS
 – 64 68 78 – 98 95 89 86 50 – 64 – – 84 23.4
91. OF Jake Marisnick, MIA
 79 – 99 91 85 69 80 84 65 71 45 67 – 91 88 23.0
92. C Reese McGuire, PIT
 81 59 99 92 90 82 – – 62 – – 50 92 86 21.7
93. OF Brian Goodwin, WAS
 – 86 78 – 70 96 93 83 – 78 44 – – 87 21.6
94. 3B Matt Davidson, CWS
 72 93 93 88 – 62 – 88 80 77 77 – – – – 19.9
95. C Christian Bethancourt, ATL
 69 87 95 80 – 85 – 90 82 83 – 66 77 – 19.6
96. 2B Jonathan Schoop, BAL
 – 82 94 61 95 68 83 86 – 98 74 – 87 – 68 19.5
97. OF Josh Bell, PIT
 – 77 92 60 84 – 99 97 74 – 76 86 88 – 17.7
98. OF Jorge Bonifacio, KC
 90 99 – – 83 84 – 91 – – 92 72 94 12.9