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BABIP Stats For Hitters: 2011

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Last year I posted BABIP stats for hitters. BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play. I still have the database queries sitting here in a text file which just need a minor tweak or two to update them for 2011. So let’s do it then. Check the prior year post for details about BABIP and why it is useful in your fantasy baseball analysis.

Here are hitter BABIP stats from 2011, starting with the top 38 BABIP results, minimum 400 at-bats. The AVG is the player’s 2011 batting average.

+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player           | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Matt Kemp        |  601 | 0.324 | 0.380 |
| Adrian Gonzalez  |  630 | 0.338 | 0.380 |
| Emilio Bonifacio |  565 | 0.296 | 0.372 |
| Michael Bourn    |  656 | 0.294 | 0.369 |
| Michael Young    |  631 | 0.338 | 0.367 |
| Alex Avila       |  464 | 0.295 | 0.366 |
| Miguel Cabrera   |  572 | 0.344 | 0.365 |
| Hunter Pence     |  606 | 0.314 | 0.361 |
| Alex Gordon      |  611 | 0.303 | 0.358 |
| Dexter Fowler    |  481 | 0.266 | 0.354 |
| Jose Reyes       |  537 | 0.337 | 0.353 |
| Ryan Braun       |  563 | 0.332 | 0.350 |
| Jemile Weeks     |  406 | 0.303 | 0.350 |
| Joey Votto       |  599 | 0.309 | 0.349 |
| Andre Ethier     |  487 | 0.290 | 0.346 |
| Michael Morse    |  522 | 0.303 | 0.344 |
| Starlin Castro   |  674 | 0.307 | 0.344 |
| Victor Martinez  |  540 | 0.330 | 0.343 |
| Drew Stubbs      |  604 | 0.243 | 0.343 |
| Gerardo Parra    |  445 | 0.292 | 0.342 |
| Austin Jackson   |  591 | 0.249 | 0.340 |
| Jon Jay          |  455 | 0.297 | 0.340 |
| Freddie Freeman  |  571 | 0.282 | 0.339 |
| Howie Kendrick   |  537 | 0.285 | 0.338 |
| Peter Bourjos    |  502 | 0.271 | 0.338 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury  |  660 | 0.321 | 0.336 |
| Derek Jeter      |  546 | 0.297 | 0.336 |
| Casey Kotchman   |  500 | 0.306 | 0.335 |
| Jamey Carroll    |  452 | 0.290 | 0.332 |
| Melky Cabrera    |  658 | 0.305 | 0.332 |
| Cameron Maybin   |  515 | 0.264 | 0.331 |
| Matt Holliday    |  446 | 0.296 | 0.330 |
| Todd Helton      |  421 | 0.302 | 0.328 |
| Carlos Gonzalez  |  481 | 0.295 | 0.326 |
| Jhonny Peralta   |  525 | 0.299 | 0.325 |
| Dustin Pedroia   |  635 | 0.307 | 0.325 |
| Greg Dobbs       |  411 | 0.275 | 0.325 |
| Carlos Beltran   |  520 | 0.300 | 0.324 |

Here are the lowest 39 BABIP results from 2011, minimum 400 at-bats.

+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player              | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Vernon Wells        |  505 | 0.218 | 0.214 |
| Alex Rios           |  537 | 0.227 | 0.237 |
| Mark Teixeira       |  589 | 0.248 | 0.239 |
| Evan Longoria       |  483 | 0.244 | 0.239 |
| Adam Dunn           |  415 | 0.159 | 0.240 |
| Ian Kinsler         |  620 | 0.255 | 0.243 |
| Kurt Suzuki         |  460 | 0.237 | 0.244 |
| Casey McGehee       |  546 | 0.223 | 0.249 |
| Russell Martin      |  417 | 0.237 | 0.252 |
| Dan Uggla           |  600 | 0.233 | 0.253 |
| J.P. Arencibia      |  443 | 0.219 | 0.255 |
| Orlando Cabrera     |  450 | 0.238 | 0.259 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |  556 | 0.252 | 0.259 |
| Carlos Quentin      |  421 | 0.254 | 0.261 |
| Brent Morel         |  413 | 0.245 | 0.262 |
| Carlos Santana      |  552 | 0.239 | 0.263 |
| Adam Lind           |  499 | 0.251 | 0.265 |
| Logan Morrison      |  462 | 0.247 | 0.265 |
| Alfonso Soriano     |  475 | 0.244 | 0.266 |
| Mark Reynolds       |  534 | 0.221 | 0.266 |
| Martin Prado        |  551 | 0.260 | 0.266 |
| Carlos Pena         |  493 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Colby Rasmus        |  471 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Raul Ibanez         |  535 | 0.245 | 0.268 |
| John Buck           |  466 | 0.227 | 0.268 |
| Aaron Hill          |  520 | 0.246 | 0.268 |
| Miguel Olivo        |  477 | 0.224 | 0.270 |
| Aubrey Huff         |  521 | 0.246 | 0.271 |
| Ty Wigginton        |  401 | 0.242 | 0.271 |
| Justin Smoak        |  427 | 0.234 | 0.273 |
| Adrian Beltre       |  487 | 0.296 | 0.273 |
| J.J. Hardy          |  527 | 0.269 | 0.273 |
| David DeJesus       |  442 | 0.240 | 0.274 |
| Mark Trumbo         |  539 | 0.254 | 0.274 |
| Hideki Matsui       |  517 | 0.251 | 0.274 |
| Ryan Roberts        |  482 | 0.249 | 0.275 |
| Danny Valencia      |  564 | 0.246 | 0.275 |
| Jimmy Rollins       |  567 | 0.268 | 0.275 |
| Chris Young         |  567 | 0.236 | 0.275 |

Here are the 26 biggest positive differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Did these guys exceed expectations last season so we might expect a correction in 2012?

+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Player            | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif   |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Adrian Gonzalez   |   630 |    0.380 |     1759 |     0.304 | 0.077 |
| Casey Kotchman    |   500 |    0.335 |     1324 |     0.262 | 0.073 |
| Alex Gordon       |   611 |    0.358 |      899 |     0.289 | 0.070 |
| Hunter Pence      |   606 |    0.361 |     1794 |     0.304 | 0.057 |
| Jose Bautista     |   513 |    0.309 |     1275 |     0.256 | 0.053 |
| Emilio Bonifacio  |   565 |    0.372 |      810 |     0.319 | 0.052 |
| Melky Cabrera     |   658 |    0.332 |     1357 |     0.283 | 0.050 |
| Matt Kemp         |   601 |    0.380 |     1814 |     0.334 | 0.046 |
| Jose Reyes        |   537 |    0.353 |     1398 |     0.309 | 0.043 |
| Edwin Encarnacion |   481 |    0.292 |     1131 |     0.251 | 0.042 |
| Michael Young     |   631 |    0.367 |     1842 |     0.327 | 0.040 |
| David Ortiz       |   525 |    0.321 |     1475 |     0.281 | 0.040 |
| Jeff Francoeur    |   601 |    0.323 |     1646 |     0.284 | 0.038 |
| Michael Bourn     |   656 |    0.369 |     1608 |     0.331 | 0.037 |
| Brandon Phillips  |   610 |    0.322 |     1769 |     0.285 | 0.037 |
| Victor Martinez   |   540 |    0.343 |     1347 |     0.307 | 0.036 |
| Andre Ethier      |   487 |    0.346 |     1638 |     0.313 | 0.033 |
| Miguel Cabrera    |   572 |    0.365 |     1775 |     0.331 | 0.033 |
| Seth Smith        |   476 |    0.320 |      801 |     0.290 | 0.030 |
| Carlos Ruiz       |   410 |    0.308 |     1013 |     0.281 | 0.027 |
| Jhonny Peralta    |   525 |    0.325 |     1738 |     0.299 | 0.026 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury   |   660 |    0.336 |     1256 |     0.314 | 0.022 |
| Ben Zobrist       |   588 |    0.310 |     1240 |     0.290 | 0.020 |
| Dexter Fowler     |   481 |    0.354 |      898 |     0.335 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Braun        |   563 |    0.350 |     1865 |     0.330 | 0.020 |
| Ronny Cedeno      |   413 |    0.313 |     1025 |     0.293 | 0.019 |

Here are the 35 biggest negative differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Should we expect a reversal of fortune in 2012 for these players?

+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Player           | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif    |
+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Evan Longoria    |   483 |    0.239 |     1606 |     0.321 | -0.082 |
| Martin Prado     |   551 |    0.266 |     1277 |     0.338 | -0.072 |
| Alex Rios        |   537 |    0.237 |     1784 |     0.304 | -0.067 |
| Vernon Wells     |   505 |    0.214 |     1647 |     0.280 | -0.066 |
| Adam Dunn        |   415 |    0.240 |     1621 |     0.304 | -0.064 |
| Casey McGehee    |   546 |    0.249 |      989 |     0.313 | -0.064 |
| Ichiro Suzuki    |   677 |    0.295 |     2005 |     0.356 | -0.061 |
| Mark Teixeira    |   589 |    0.239 |     1784 |     0.296 | -0.057 |
| David DeJesus    |   442 |    0.274 |     1428 |     0.331 | -0.057 |
| Dan Uggla        |   600 |    0.253 |     1684 |     0.308 | -0.055 |
| Angel Pagan      |   478 |    0.285 |     1013 |     0.337 | -0.052 |
| Miguel Olivo     |   477 |    0.270 |     1090 |     0.322 | -0.052 |
| Ian Kinsler      |   620 |    0.243 |     1475 |     0.294 | -0.051 |
| Kevin Youkilis   |   431 |    0.296 |     1391 |     0.342 | -0.047 |
| Colby Rasmus     |   471 |    0.267 |      938 |     0.314 | -0.047 |
| Omar Infante     |   579 |    0.298 |      991 |     0.343 | -0.044 |
| Russell Martin   |   417 |    0.252 |     1389 |     0.295 | -0.043 |
| Mark Reynolds    |   534 |    0.266 |     1616 |     0.309 | -0.043 |
| Kelly Johnson    |   545 |    0.277 |     1435 |     0.319 | -0.042 |
| Raul Ibanez      |   535 |    0.268 |     1696 |     0.309 | -0.041 |
| Jayson Werth     |   561 |    0.286 |     1543 |     0.327 | -0.041 |
| Matt Wieters     |   500 |    0.276 |      800 |     0.317 | -0.041 |
| Jason Bartlett   |   553 |    0.292 |     1422 |     0.332 | -0.041 |
| Adam Lind        |   499 |    0.265 |     1482 |     0.305 | -0.040 |
| John Buck        |   466 |    0.268 |      965 |     0.306 | -0.038 |
| Orlando Cabrera  |   450 |    0.259 |     1811 |     0.297 | -0.038 |
| Kurt Suzuki      |   460 |    0.244 |     1595 |     0.279 | -0.035 |
| Albert Pujols    |   579 |    0.277 |     1679 |     0.311 | -0.034 |
| Josh Hamilton    |   487 |    0.317 |     1478 |     0.350 | -0.033 |
| Nelson Cruz      |   475 |    0.288 |      976 |     0.321 | -0.033 |
| Justin Upton     |   592 |    0.319 |     1377 |     0.351 | -0.032 |
| Cody Ross        |   405 |    0.279 |     1545 |     0.310 | -0.032 |
| Nick Markakis    |   641 |    0.300 |     1866 |     0.332 | -0.032 |
| Johnny Damon     |   582 |    0.284 |     1644 |     0.316 | -0.032 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera |   604 |    0.302 |     1256 |     0.333 | -0.032 |

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Francoeur, Bay, Sandoval, Cuddyer

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Stock Up

Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC – Jeff Francoeur made an appearance here earlier in the season and his renaissance season continues. No, he’s not putting up big numbers like he did in his first few seasons in the league, but he’s earning his pay. Over the last two weeks Frenchy is hitting .318 with three home runs, and 12 RBI while scoring 10 runs and even stealing four bases. There is no way he will continue at this level, but if he can contribute in all five categories, he’s well worth rostering to start the second half.

Jason Bay, OF, NYM – Ever since signing his mega-deal with the Mets, Bay has been a bust with underwhelming play mixed in with a lot of time off due to injuries. Over the last two weeks, he’s put up .326/3/13/8/2. There’s no telling how long this will continue, so enjoy the ride.

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, SF – Sandoval got off to a quick start to his career with a nice splash in 2008 and a big rookie campaign in 2009, but he struggled mightily in 2010 and was often benched during last season’s playoffs since his bat was allergic to baseballs. Panda is a streaky player and he is in the middle of one of those hot streaks right now (.351/3/12/8/1), so grab him and go with it.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman isn’t supposed to have a lot of homer power, so the five dingers over the last two weeks is a bit of a surprise. Still, that kind of hot streak is something worth a look to see if it can help your fantasy team before he comes back down to reality.

Danny Valencia, 3B, MIN – Valencia is more of a glove-man at the hot corner than a big stick, but with all the injuries you might be stuck with a try at anyone available. A solid average with no power is the expectation here, but the three homers and 12 RBI over the last two weeks are a great boost to your team. See if this can continue past the break if you are in need of help.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/2B/3B/OF, MIN – The Twins as a team have been hot, so it is not surprising to see another player on this list. Cuddyer’s position flexibility is reason enough to roster him, but the hot streak is reason to start him anywhere you have an opening. Over the last two weeks, Cuddyer has posted .316/3/10/8 and this is the kind of help that can get you through the tough injuries or cold streaks during a long season.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla’s average is ugly, but this guy’s game is power. His average may never be what you want, but he’s hit four homers and 10 ribbies over the last two weeks, so ride the power surge as he looks to be figuring it out right now.

 
Stock Down

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS – Zimmerman missed more than two months due to injury and still doesn’t seem to be back to full strength. He’s hitting .229/2/7/3 over the last two weeks, so sit him if you have a better option and hope for better results after some rest during the All Star Break.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS – Youkilis is also struggling right now to the tune of .258/1/5/4 despite the rest of the Red Sox crushing it. In the middle of a high powered offense like the BoSox, he’s likely to catch the fever too, so hang on to him and play him unless you have a much better option to start until Youk gets hot again.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – If you haven’t already done so, cut bait on Dunn. His bat has been awful and doesn’t look to recover.

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY – The excitement of watching just the 23rd player in baseball history get to 3,000 hits is big stuff, but watching Jeter get there is painful. First we had to wait through the injury, now the anemic performances. He’s just 3-for-13 since his return and hopefully you’ve got someone else to play until after the break.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL – Weeks is currently struggling (.170/1/2/8/0) and has been wrangled into the Home Run Derby during the All Star festivities. This event is usually detrimental to a player’s game swing for some time after the event, so finding a place on your bench for Weeks over the next few weeks might be a good decision.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Pena, Wigginton, Peralta, Beachy

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Stock Up

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Pena is the kind of player that will give you your money’s worth every time he swings. Unfortunately, he misses a lot more than most other players and his career .240 batting average is the kind of thing that scares a lot of fantasy owners away, despite the huge power. Right now is the time to add the big fella, as he has hit .265 with eight home runs and 14 RBI over the last two weeks. That kind of average is very palatable when you are considering the power surge. Ride his hot streak but be ready to cut bait as the big numbers tail off.

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/OF, COL – Wigginton is eligible all over the diamond and has a nice power stroke. Over the last two weeks, he’s posted .298/7/12 with 10 runs scored. As long as the Rockies are giving him regular at-bats, he’ll be an asset to your team, but you definitely want to get in on this current run.

Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta continues his unlikely hot hitting. Over the fortnight, he is mashing to a .396/4/13/8 tune. Few shortstops are performing at a very high level, so Peralta might be more than a short-term hot streak, he might just be your rest of the season solution. Grab him if he is sitting on your waiver wire.

J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL – Hardy has found his swing again and is rewarding his owners. He is hitting .340/5/10/10 over the last two weeks so enjoy the ride, just don’t expect it to last for a long time. Be ready to find a replacement when he falls back down to Earth.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – Espinosa is another middle infielder who is on a hot streak. Right now, he is in the middle of a .294/4/11/7 run with three steals to boot. He’s a solid play if you are desperate.

Chris Getz, 2B, CWS – Yet another middle infielder who is exceeding expectations, Getz is doing most of his damage with his legs. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .388/0/2/7/6 line and provides a lot of help in the steals category for those needing a few more. The average is also surging right now, just don’t expect any power.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK – While we are on the run of middle infielders, let’s stop and visit Rickie Weeks’ little brother. Jemile is a good average/speed guy, but will offer much less power than his big brother Rickie. Over the last two weeks, Jemile has posted a .292/0/4/7/5 line and will pile up the steals as long as Oakland keeps rolling him out at 2B each night. The A’s traded Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies, so it seems like their plan is to stick with Weeks.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman has found his groove recently and his numbers are showing it. He posted .292/3/9/6 over the last two weeks and has even been moved to the heart of the Atlanta batting order. He’s a great long-term keeper, but grab him for his power surge right now.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL – Beachy is back from the injury that cost him six weeks of playing time. He’s back with a flourish, striking out 20 in the two appearances since his return while allowing only two runs over those 12 innings pitched. If he’s available, pick him up more for his ratios than for the strikeouts, which aren’t likely to continue at that rate.

 
Stock Down

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn is suffering his worst MLB season for no obvious reason. Over the last two weeks, he has managed two singles, a double, 16 strikeouts, and no other stats of use to your fantasy team. Is the change of leagues hurting his performance or maybe the designated hitter role? Whatever has turned him from a consistent slugger to someone playing himself out of the league, it is time to find another alternative. Dunn looks done.

Hunter Pence, OF, HOU – After Pence went on a 23 game hitting streak, the back problems flared up and have rendered him helpless. Since the hitting streak, Pence has gone 9-for-38 with only 3 RBI and 2 runs scored in nine games played. Sit him on your bench until he gets past this injury.

Joe Mauer, C, MIN – Mauer has been battling injuries all season and it looks like he will be hitting from the 1B and DH slots from here on out. Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball when healthy, but he isn’t that right now. If someone in your league is willing to pay close to full value on him, pull the trigger.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN – Bruce is struggling in June after picking up NL Player of the Month honors in May. He’s scuffling right now, so sit him until he finds his form again.

Zack Greinke, SP, KC – Greinke was zooming along at 6-0 in his first seven starts since starting the season with a cracked rib injury. Then the last two weeks saw some awful numbers pop up to the tune of 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Since his strikeouts are still there, don’t worry. In fact, this might be a good time to buy low.