DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

FanEx 12-Team Flex PPR Draft Recap, Rounds 1 to 5

August 11, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Le’Veon Bell is betting on himself again this season, and I am along for the ride, trading up and taking him 1.04 in the FanEx fantasy football experts league draft.

The annual FanEx draft is underway! This is my fourth year in this fantasy football experts league, and (toot, toot) I am the defending champion of the American Conference. Reviewing my FanEx history, I have back-to-back-to-back 8-6 regular season records, two playoff appearances and a championship.

This is a tough league format because only four teams make the playoffs, playing Weeks 15-16, instead of the more common six teams (of 12) playing Weeks 14-16. The three division winners make the playoffs and smartly – and fortunately – the wild card team is the highest scoring team regardless of record. That is how I qualified last year. A look at the final regular season standings shows I scored the second most points in the league. Look at the points allowed – over 300 points against higher than a few teams! A little amazing I managed an 8-6 record.

The format is pretty common flex lineup and point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. This is a 12-team league, starting lineup 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 1 Flex RB/WR/TE. Scoring 4 points per passing TD, 6 for rushing/receiving TD, 1 per 20 passing yards, 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, and 1 PPR all positions. Randomly assigned the eighth pick in the draft, here is how the 2018 draft is going so far.

Rounds 1 to 5

1.04 RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

I have some concerns with Bell discussed in my first round pick considerations, but not enough concern to pull Bell out of the Top 3. For a more elaborate explanation of potential concerns about Bell, check out Doug Orth’s PPR Big Board, in which he ranked Bell outside his Top 10. Although Doug admits he would still draft him at least once this season. Maybe this is my once.

At any rate, I didn’t even have the fourth overall pick, but rather, the eighth. The 1.04 pick holder, Ian Allan, must also have some reservations, and offered to trade his 1.04 and 20th round pick for my 1.08 and 9th round pick. While I was perfectly fine to sit at eight (Hopkins or Odell?), I also thought, why not make the trade with Bell still on the board? Bell is betting on himself once again for a monster year to earn a big contract. I will take a shot betting on him, too.

2.05 WR Davante Adams, GB

Davante Adams and Michael Thomas seem joined at the hip this fantasy draft season. In my FFPC superflex draft I grabbed Adams at 3.01 and Thomas was taken right after. In this one, Alan Satterlee drafted Thomas right before my pick allowing me to increase my investment in Adams.

There are still many exceptional players available at this spot. The next six picks in order: Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green. Now who wouldn’t be happy with pretty much any of those guys at this point in time? The short story for me on Adams though is I believe the probability of him scoring double digit touchdowns is higher than almost any other receiver. Only two wide outs did it last season, him being one, with Aaron Rodgers only playing six games. A healthy Rodgers and departed Jordy Nelson, the stars are aligning for a potential special year for Adams.

3.08 WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN

To take a running back at this pick feels like I am reaching a little, although I am coming around on Miami Dolphins Kenyan Drake. As a value drafter, I like to take some chances to see if particular players get passed and make it to my next pick. Drake did not make it, getting drafted 4.01.

While the current tier of available wide receivers is of fair depth, including Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald and Allen Robinson, it seems to me Thomas stands out with a better combination of more skill and less risk than the other three (apologies Larry). Reports from Denver Broncos camp is Case Keenum is doing well connecting with Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. There are a bunch of targets in Denver to be spread around to not that many players, something called, “a narrow tree,” on Sirius XM fantasy radio recently. Good phrase.

4.05 QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

This one is a bit tough, and one reason these fantasy football experts leagues are not always the best guide to most fantasy football players local leagues. I know most of the guys I am drafting against will wait, wait and wait at quarterback. As of writing this the draft is in the 11th round. Here is the pick distribution of the quarterback position by round through ten:

Round Number of QB Drafted
1-3 0
4 2
5 1
6 1
7 0
8 2
9 4
10 6

It is a huge waiting game. The consensus top guy though – Rodgers, obviously – should he fall past the third round? I considered him last time and he is still hanging around because everyone is sucking up RB, WR and the top TE. I wait at QB myself more often than not, but staying flexible, is this a fair value to add Rodgers, accepting I will be a little weaker at RB and WR? Yes, I think so.

5.08 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

The drafting of Rodgers motivated a couple owners to nab their starting quarterback, but not enough and not enough higher ADP tight ends like Evan Engram went between my fourth and fifth picks to allow a running back to fall to my liking. Thought I had an outside shot at Jay Ajayi, and more likely Lamar Miller, but neither made it.

Regardless of how David Njoku and Nick Vannett did last night, the tight end position is still thin overall, and in a PPR draft especially, I like the advantage of a reliable tight end. Engram is usually the next tight end off the board in drafts but I am more partial to Greg Olsen. Engram is very talented and young, but the new competition for targets on the Giants has me leery he can repeat or improve on last season. Olsen is old reliable for Cam Newton, and the two picked up where they left off when Olsen returned from injury. His final four games, including the Wild Card game, saw targets of 12, 6, 9 and 12.

Continued rounds 6 to 12, including screenshots of all team rosters and position rankings through 12 rounds.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1 Considerations

July 25, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2018 fantasy football rankings are up and here are fantasy football draft round 1 considerations. Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell is certainly in the mix for top of the first, but with some concerns.

My initial 2018 fantasy football rankings were posted last week, with a couple caveats. This morning the rankings are updated for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker, plus top 125 overall rankings.

That is a good start, but not as helpful as with some commentary to show the thought process behind them. Why are certain players higher or lower than the consensus average draft position (ADP)? Lets start with the Top 12 which is essentially my fantasy football draft round 1.

Overall
Rank Name Pos ADP1
1 RB T. Gurley, LAR RB1 1.02
2 RB E. Elliott, DAL RB2 1.03
3 RB L. Bell, PIT RB3 1.03
4 WR A. Brown, PIT WR1 1.06
5 WR D. Hopkins, HOU WR2 1.09
6 WR O. Beckham Jr., NYG WR3 1.12
7 RB D. Johnson, ARI RB4 1.04
8 RB S. Barkley, NYG ® RB5 1.06
9 WR J. Jones, ATL WR4 2.03
10 RB K. Hunt, KC RB6 1.11
11 RB D. Cook, MIN RB7 1.12
12 RB L. Fournette, JAC RB8 1.08
13 RB A. Kamara, NO RB9 1.06
14 WR D. Adams, GB WR5 2.06
15 WR M. Thomas, NO WR6 2.04
16 WR A. Green, CIN WR7 2.08
17 TE R. Gronkowski, NE TE1 2.12
18 RB M. Gordon, LAC RB10 1.10
19 WR K. Allen, LAC WR8 2.07
20 RB D. Freeman, ATL RB11 2.04
21 RB C. McCaffrey, CAR RB12 2.12
22 WR D. Baldwin, SEA WR9 3.03
23 WR T. Hilton, IND WR10 3.10
24 QB A. Rodgers, GB QB1 3.02

1 Fantasy Football Calculator (12 team)

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 1-6

1. RB Todd Gurley, LAR

I have five players in my Tier 1 running backs, adding Saquon Barkley to that group this morning. We know based on history at least one, probably two and possibly more will disappoint the high expectations that come with the fortune of having a Top 4 (or Top 1 or Top 2 or Top 3 or Top 5, depending on the year) draft pick. For me, I tend to rank that top group not so much on floor, ceiling, talent, etc., although that all comes into play, but rather which player is the least likely to disappoint. That is the guy I want with my top pick. That player is Todd Gurley. There are fewer red flags with Gurley compared the each of the next four running backs, which is why he is generally considered the consensus number one overall pick this fantasy draft season.

2. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

Elliott has slightly more red flags than Gurley, but I would argue less than Le’Veon Bell, slotting him in the number two spot for me. The Dallas Cowboys are not expected to be a top offense this season given the ultra-thin receiving corps, although coupled with Dak Prescott they should be able to show enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. The offensive line is still a huge strength, and Elliott the best pure runner in the league with a team committed to giving him a heavy workload. Even a dishonest defense is going to get exhausted trying to tackle this guy in the second half of games.

3. RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

Bell is absolute money for fantasy owners finishing in the RB2-RB4 range since his sophomore season (points-per-game in 2015 due to playing in only 6 games). That is performance scoring, no points-per-reception (PPR), in which he creates even more distance from his peers averaging 80 catches the past two seasons. Too bad that hasn’t translated into a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which leads us into yet another season in which Bell is skipping all of training camp. I respect his bet on himself mentality playing on the one-year franchise tag, but missed camp worries me he is more likely to get injured early in the season.

Also, “everyone” apparently hated now departed offensive coordinator Todd Haley. I’m sure Haley had a personality that rubbed Ben Roethlisberger and a whole bunch of people the wrong way but lets face facts – the guy knows offense and deserves a good deal of credit for the Steelers offensive juggernaut in recent seasons. Now Haley is gone and that worries me the potential negative impact on the whole offense of which Bell is the main beneficiary. Note these worries are not enough to push Bell far down the board, but based on risk, I am more comfortable with Gurley or Elliott than Bell.

4. WR Antonio Brown, PIT

Fantasy football drafts are back sliding into running back heavy affairs, and many will see the top five or six picks all take a RB before the first wide receiver is off the board. That is a mistake in leagues with three or more WR relative to two RB starters, and especially in PPR leagues.

No one would really bat an eyelash if Antonio Brown was drafted number one overall each of the past 4-5 seasons, and you know the guy who drafted him was certainly happy with the results. Wide receivers are safer picks than running backs. Antonio Brown is matchup proof. Taking Brown is a very positive use of draft capital.

The comments on Haley, above, don’t necessarily apply the same here. If the offense keeps chugging along as in the past, great, and great for Brown owners. If the offense stutters at all, the answer will be to throw to Brown. Brown is a worthy Top 4 pick and if you are skittish on any of the running backs, feel free to push him up to as high as number one on your board.

5. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

It appears I am higher on Deshaun Watson than most people, as I see repeatedly how fantasy experts state Watson is greatly overvalued. Sure, there is hype based on a small sample from last season and he is returning from a major injury. These are very logical conclusions to avoid Watson where he is typically getting drafted. At what point however do we sit back and say, “the guy is just that good”?

I do not say this lightly, but I think there is something to the thought we are witnessing a generational talent at the quarterback position. Health reports on his rehab are very good, so my concern there is mitigated. To watch him set the league on fire this season, wait until this time next year and declare Watson is in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers, doesn’t show fantasy experts are willing to stick their neck out very far, so I will. He has the ability of finishing QB2+. If I can get Watson around QB4 or later, then I absolutely will draft him.

Oh, my bad, this is supposed to be about DeAndre Hopkins. He will be the primary beneficiary and contributor to Watson’s success. Hopkins is 26 years old and primed to make last season and his 2015 stat line the norm. Anyone else tired of hearing the word regression from fantasy football experts?

Lets call this for what it is. Hopkins is super-talented. He is on a very good team. He will be showered with targets. Again, wide receivers are safer than running backs, putting Nuk in my Top 5.

6. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

Similar in concept to my reasons for Le’Veon Bell ranking behind Gurley and Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr. is not less talented or less capable of finishing WR1 than Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. However, he is a more risky proposition to get there than the other two.

We sometimes forget in our fantasy football analysis that these players are not robots, they are people. And people – particularly professional football players – do stupid things. Brown and Hopkins have shown less evidence of doing stupid things that could impact their on-field performance than someone like, say, Beckham. Its a character thing.

What Beckham accomplished in his first three seasons in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous, and then he got injured last season. I have no trouble drafting Beckham (hey, we are only half way through the first round here), but I feel safer with the other two wideouts. Based on fantasy football drafts so far, with their RB-heavy focus, there is a good chance you end up with Beckham using these rankings but drafting as late as eighth to tenth overall.

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 7-12

I am getting a little long with the commentary so time to shorten things up a bit. Anyone who emails me Draft Buddy tech support questions, or questions about their fantasy league, can usually expect a fairly detailed response. Maybe I need to do more fantasy football advice on Twitter to learn to give more concise answers.

7. RB David Johnson, ARI

David Johnson is squarely in the Tier 1 RB group by most rankings sets, often as high as RB2. The Arizona Cardinals are not expected to be very good though, am I right? For supporting cast we aren’t even positive if or how long Sam Bradford will start ahead of rookie QB Josh Rosen. They’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and … a whole lot of wishful thinking at receiver. Offensive guru coach Bruce Arians is gone. This team is rebuilding. Sure, a lot of volume for David Johnson and his talent puts him in the conversation but I don’t love the idea of using my first round pick on a RB for a team I expect is more likely to struggle than not. For the third time, wide receivers are safer.

8. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

We have no NFL history with Barkley which will lead some to say hey, no way am I taking a rookie with my first round pick. I like to have an open mind and try to never say never. Maybe Barkley is the next great thing at RB. Enough smart people who did the necessary scouting and research are singing his praises, and we have come a long way scouting football talent since Ki-Jana Carter, or the 2005 NFL Draft with running backs picks 2nd, 4th and 5th overall (and each of those guys were decent for stretches). Sure, the New York Giants are, like the Cardinals, not a good team. Unlike the Cardinals, there is a decent offensive supporting cast in place to contribute to Barkley’s success.

9. WR Julio Jones, ATL

Not reporting to Atlanta Falcons training camp due to a contract dispute does not make me particularly enamored with Julio Jones right now, so this ranking may drop. The sides each seem pretty stuck in that no new contract will be forthcoming prior to this season. More touchdowns would also be nice. On the plus side, Jones is sliding into the second round. He’s going to play, he might have a chip on his shoulder and I’m sure Matt Ryan has no issue helping Jones pad his stats as much as possible. A 1,400 yard floor and potential for 100 catches, I do feel better with him on my squad than the next group of riskier running backs.

10. RB Kareem Hunt, KC

If you drafted Hunt late last year, congrats. He was one of the stories of the NFL and particularly fantasy football in 2017 as an unheralded prospect, flung into action due to an injury to incumbent Spencer Ware. Great offense (although first year starting quarterback) and projected high workload make Hunt the expected man again for 2018. He did fade through the middle of last season but does contribute in the passing game. This is neither an aggressively positive or overly negative outlook for Hunt.

11. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN

A player that really impressed me last season was Dalvin Cook. Knee injury in Week 4! Bah! What a disappointment. Knee injuries are not the same concern coming back from them as they used to be, especially when they are early in the season. We will want to keep close tabs on reports about Cook through training camp. Skill-wise and playing on a top defensive minded team, this is perhaps a bit high from consensus but a decent ranking for Cook and his upside. Really, the players ranked in this range and through the next six or so picks are all somewhat interchangeable. Pick the guy you like, and Cook is one I do like.

12. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC

Fournette is very similar to me as Cook. Talented running back, playing on a team with a strong defense, he should be in many games with what the daily fantasy guys call a positive game script. Fournette only played in 13 games last year, finished RB8, and more than 15 points better than RB9. In most leagues drafting end of the first round you will want a RB with one of your first two picks, and Fournette is a good foundation for your team.

Other Considerations

RB Alvin Kamara, NO

This will be the player most will say is mistakenly missing from my Top 12. No doubt Kamara was superb last season, but a player who excels that much in a timeshare is typically a player I will fade the following season when expectations thrust him into the first round.

WR Davante Adams, GB and WR Michael Thomas, NO

I absolutely love Davante Adams this year as the trending up and go-to guy for Aaron Rodgers. He can certainly return first round value. Michael Thomas is great too, and I am not writing off Drew Brees yet as some are. My late first round drafts will usually lean to a balanced approach, taking 1 RB and 1 WR, so drafting any combination of Hunt/Cook/Fournette/Kamara and Jones/Adams/Thomas/A.J. Green is an ideal start.

TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Gronk is a difference maker. With Julian Edelman out to start the season, and Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis gone from the New England Patriots, a healthy Gronk could be exceptional. Perhaps this is one of the few ways to get value from your late first round pick. In a league giving extra value to the TE position, I would give high consideration to Gronk. In other leagues I wouldn’t begrudge you taking him this high either.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Most fantasy experts will tell you absolutely do not draft Aaron Rodgers with your first round pick. I am not going to do that. That applies to most of their (the experts’) leagues. Lets not worry about their leagues and lets worry about your league. Your league you may very well provide a big advantage owning the consensus number one quarterback.

Without diving too deep into this subject, even if the format and scoring is the same as expert leagues, in more casual leagues QB tend to get drafted earlier, and top RB and WR are more likely to fall deeper in the draft. And it can be more difficult to trade in your local league. So, considering Rodgers is a difference maker at a position potentially valued very highly in your league, if that costs you a first round pick, so be it.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Scott Fish Bowl SFB8 Fantasy Football Draft Preparation

July 10, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Scott Fish Bowl
The Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8) draft kicked off Monday at 11:00am Eastern, and I am in the Norm Peterson league of the Cheers / Seinfeld conference.

Never heard of the Scott Fish Bowl? It is one of the most fun fantasy football expert leagues (and in this case expert + fan competition) to participate in. There is no money at stake, but this 900 person event does raise considerable funds for charity through FantasyCares.net. It is an awesome event for the fantasy football community.

Unique League Rules

This is a large overall competition but it is broken down into 12-team leagues. Focusing on the individual league aspect, here are some key rules to give you some context to the draft results:

  • Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex spots, maximum 1 Flex a QB
  • 22 roster spots so it is a fairly deep league, especially considering no K or DEF
  • QB scoring 6 points per TD, -4 point per INT – very punitive
  • reception scoring 0.5 points all positions, except 1.0 points for TE
  • first down scoring 0.5 points per rushing or receiving, except 1.0 points for TE

Pretty unique, isn’t it? So we can start 2 QB but the interceptions are killers. It is a lot of weekly starters. TE are added value with the double points for receptions and first downs relative to RB and WR. And, points for first downs!

First Down Scoring

Preparing for the first down stat scoring, which is not a very common fantasy points category, took some thought. I considered pulling 2017 player stats for first downs from my database and inputting them into Draft Buddy, but that wouldn’t be exceptionally helpful. Historical stats will match to players from last year, but not match to projections for the upcoming season which is what I use to help generate my cheatsheets.

Instead, I reviewed the first down stats to get a sense how impactful this category is on the scoring. It is fairly significant, mostly because it contributes primarily to RB, WR and TE scoring, but not QB unless they run a lot. Note, no points for a passing first down.

Sometimes you to use a little ingenuity to get your custom cheatsheet and draft tool (Draft Buddy) to give you the best results. In this case, I goosed up the reception points to account for receiving first downs, and gave some points for rushing attempts to account for rushing first downs.

For example, my analysis suggested a relationship of WR receiving first downs about 70% of reception totals, so I added 0.35 points per reception (to the existing 0.5). That is 0.5 per first down x 70% = 0.35. I did similar for the first down scoring for each type and position.

D-I-Y Average Draft Position Data

I have the 12th pick in the draft. Buddy Jim Day, a.k.a. @Fantasytaz, organized some pre-SFB8 draftmasters drafts to allow players some practice drafting, from which I compiled ADP you can find in the tweet below, and Google Sheets document.

I’ve always liked this view format, so thought I would try it for #SFB8 ADP. Top 120 players… @Fantasytaz @ScottFish24 pic.twitter.com/QT3P8jFy4x

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) July 6, 2018

In my practice draft I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, but as SFB8 got closer there seemed to be some buzz as to the QB values going up. Everyone wants to start two QB, and no one wants to be left with sketchy QB options as likely to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns each week. So, I was hopeful to get Rodgers again in my real draft, and he is the only QB I would consider at that spot.

Custom Cheatsheets

With the rules and scoring input, plus ADP, Draft Buddy kicked out custom cheatsheets for me. Presented below are the Top 12 at each position. These are based on the default projections in Draft Buddy, from FF Today, so I won’t necessarily draft exactly as shown on the cheatsheets.

In fact, I would not normally do that anyway, because I look at each draft as sort of a living, evolving experience, where opinions and strategies change as it progresses. Perhaps more on that another time. I will get into more specifics about some of my decisions made through the draft, but if you want a sneak peek at my picks, currently through four rounds, you can review the draft report.

Draft Buddy custom cheatsheets
SBF8 Top 12 QB
SBF8 Top 12 RB
SBF8 Top 12 RB
SBF8 Top 12 WR
SBF8 Top 12 WR
SBF8 Top 12 TE
SBF8 Top 12 TE

I will post my copy of Draft Buddy for this draft to our download page for our Draft Buddy members to review if interested.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • …
  • 9
  • Next Page »
  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
Draft Buddy
Member Updates · Facebook icon Facebook · Twitter icon Twitter

Copyright © 2021 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy