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MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

July 18, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Andy is back with Round 2 of his do-over fantasy baseball draft. One of the surprises is Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez taken with the 14th overall pick.

Last week I traveled back in time (not literally) to change my draft. In essence, a well-deserved do-over fantasy baseball mock draft round 1.

The first round was not really out of the ordinary but it did have some shakeups compared to Average Draft Position (ADP) from the beginning of the year. The second round has even more surprises.

This is a 12-team snake draft, standard 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league. I include ADP from the start of the year and the first round pick for each slot, after the player I would draft now if I could do it all over again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

13. Chris Sale Preseason ADP #13, Corey Kluber · 1st Round Pick, Corey Kluber

I could have easily picked an offensive player but the chance of grabbing two stud starting pitchers back-to-back was too good to pass up. Kluber the first choice because of his divisional opponents and his ability to pad stats. Sale this time because he’s a stud, pure and simple. Yes, he does face the AL East, specifically the Yankees, plenty but otherwise dominates on the mound.

14. Eugenio Suarez Preseason ADP #14, Carlos Correa · 1st Round Pick, Aaron Judge

I said this would have some surprises. Going with Judge in the first round really assured me a building block in the outfield. Suarez allows me to do the same in the infield. He’s currently hitting .315 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI’s for a Reds team that is in last place (although if they played the Cubs a little more they might be in first place).

Correa is a popular pick but I am reminded of last year when the Astros didn’t have one hitter with over 100 RBI, and Correa’s numbers weren’t that off the charts. He had 24 home runs and drove in 84 but only stole two bases. Suarez currently is on pace to blow by Correa’s numbers from last year.

15. Paul Goldschmidt Preseason ADP #15, Kris Bryant · 1st Round Pick, Max Scherzer

At this pick I have my stud pitcher with Scherzer and now have a potential steal with the 15th overall pick in Goldschmidt. Goldy is starting to heat up as the D-Backs are finally getting healthy. He’s been on fire this month upping his home runs total to 20 while driving in 51. He’s got a ways to go to match his numbers from last year but he’s on the right track. The thing that makes Goldschmidt such a steal with this pick is the potential for Goldy to steal double digit bags as a first baseman. He needs to run more to make this happen but I’m happy with him at 15.

16. Freddie Freeman Preseason ADP #16, Manny Machado · 1st Round Pick, Luis Severino

The Braves are supposed to win next year, not lead the NL East in 2018. Freeman is a known commodity in fantasy baseball and to the diehard fan but the casual baseball fan may not be familiar with his talents. He’s hitting .315 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI. He also has eligibility at third base which is a big plus as well.

17. Justin Verlander Preseason ADP #17, Joey Votto · 1st Round Pick, Francisco Lindor

OK, I get it – enough pitching already. My strategy is usually to get a top of the line starter in the first two rounds. This year saw a lot of borderline number ones to get gobbled up early and often. Verlander is the pick for me at 17. He’s cooled off a little bit since his blistering start but he still has a 2.05 ERA and 160 punch outs. The nice thing about Verlander is that he’s going to get wins with the Astros and that for me puts him inside the Top 20.

18. Jacob deGrom Preseason ADP #18, Aaron Judge · 1st Round Pick, J.D. Martinez

I can’t be too hypocritical with this pick but having Martinez anchoring my outfield, this would be the best time to get a top of the rotation starter. deGrom is having a 2010 Felix Hernandez, Cy Young-type season. In that season, King Felix was 13-12 for the M’s with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. deGrom is in a similar situation with the Mets. He’s currently 5-4 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The question is, will the Mets trade deGrom to a contending team? If he does, his wins will undoubtedly rise. If he doesn’t, he is still worth drafting in the mid-second round.

19. Javier Baez Preseason ADP #19, Freddie Freeman · 1st Round Pick, Jose Ramirez

I’ll be the first to admit, I never thought I’d be typing Javier Baez as a 19th overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. I’m not a Javier Baez fan in the least bit. However, I need to put my subjectivity aside and look at the numbers he’s putting up this year.

Baez is clearly the Cubs’ offensive MVP with a stat line of: .291 avg, 17 jacks, 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s also in the top 20 in runs scored. These numbers make him a solid pick at this point of the draft.

20. Clayton Kershaw Preseason ADP #20, Francisco Lindor · 1st Round Pick, Manny Machado

This pick may surprise some but I can’t in good conscious let Kershaw fall any further. I didn’t like him in the pre-season draft because of his proneness to injury (back). The same verse has been sung again this year. Kershaw missed time due to back issues and therefore won’t make 30 starts again. However, he’s still one of the top 8 starting pitchers in the league and even five months of Kershaw is better than no months at all.

21. Carlos Correa Preseason ADP #21, Anthony Rizzo · 1st Round Pick, Nolan Arenado

Along the same lines of Kershaw, I couldn’t let Correa slide any further. He’s a top three offensive shortstop when healthy and plays on a top team. He’s going to fill at least four of the five offensive categories (maybe not so much stolen bases). This year, he’s been on the DL with back stiffness and according to manager AJ Hinch, won’t be back before the All-Star break (https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-return-to-action-up-in-the-13058029.php). He’s a complete steal at pick 21.

22. Charlie Blackmon Preseason ADP #22, Jose Ramirez · 1st Round Pick, Jose Altuve

A potential 1st round pick last year, Blackmon hasn’t been his off the charts self this year. Although selected for the All-Star Game, his average is down considerably since last year (currently .277) and he’s not running much (five stolen bases). However, he does have 17 home runs and is still scoring a lot of runs. Having him at 22 is definite value and matching with Altuve should have this fantasy team near the top in runs scored.

23. Andrew Benintendi Preseason ADP #23, J.D. Martinez · 1st Round Pick, Mookie Betts

Pairing Benintendi with Betts wasn’t planned in the least bit but looking at what was available for value near the turn, I’m happy with this pick. I looked at Rizzo and Bryant and for a potential five category player, Benintendi was too good to pass up. Picking him allows me to not worry about the outfield for a little while.

24. Bryce Harper Preseason ADP #24, Gary Sanchez · 1st Round Pick, Mike Trout

I didn’t think it would end up like this but two of the young stars of baseball will end up on the same team in this do-over draft. Harper started out on fire but has turned ice cold since May. He’s hitting below .200 and isn’t doing a lot to help himself in his free agent year. However, he is among the league leaders in home runs and is near the top of baseball in walks.

So there you have it. The 12 team snake draft do-over. I will have to admit, I really enjoyed doing this a second time and like any good educator, learned from my mistakes from the first draft.

Extra Innings

There are a lot of “snubs” that always come up during the MLB All-Star Game selection process, but I’m not sure there is anything we can do about it. When the All-Star Game is played, you are rewarding players for the first half of the season, or sometimes on name recognition if they are established players and off to a slower than normal start.

Basketball and hockey use the same midseason format. Football maybe got it right (one of the few things) by having their Pro Bowl after the end of the regular season. Although that is more out of necessity, and the Pro Bowl is typically the least interesting of the four major sport all-star events. Perhaps there is no perfect way to have a true all-star game.

I would like to see the game reward players for the entire season, not just the first few months. However, baseball is such a grind that finding players who would: 1) play after a 162 game season, 2) play after the World Series, or 3) play in a meaningless game at the beginning of November, seems near impossible. I am open to ideas to improve the All-Star Game, what do you think?

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

July 10, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez is absolutely raking. A bit of a health risk and new team deflated his value back in March, but now Andy has him comfortably inside the first round of his re-do fantasy baseball mock draft.

With the All-Star break here, fantasy baseball owners have a moment to catch their breath. For me, it’s a chance to look back and wonder what it would be like to start over (if only).

Needless to say and as usual, there are some surprises through the first half of the season. With the magic of my time machine, I’m able to go back and redraft my fantasy baseball teams.

Reviewing Average Draft Position data from the beginning of the year, I decide whether or not each player is worthy of another pick this time around, and if not who I would draft instead. This is a 12-team standard 5×5 roto league using a snake style draft.

I will start with Round 1 and in a second article run through Round 2. Here we go!

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

1. Mike Trout Preseason ADP #1, Mike Trout

What can you say about Mike Trout that hasn’t already been said? Last year he finished 4th in MVP voting, his worst since 2012. He’s already a 2x MVP and a seven time all-star. His offensive numbers this year are slightly ahead of his MVP years. He’s still running and even more staggering, he’s getting walked more than he’s striking out (79 walks to 78 strikeouts as of July 10). To have that much power and still take that many walks brings flashbacks to Barry Bonds. He is on the trajectory to be Bonds’ equal if not pass him. Trout is still, no doubt, the unanimous number one pick overall.

2. Mookie Betts Preseason ADP #2, Jose Altuve

I really went back and forth with this between Altuve and Betts. I ultimately went with Betts for one reason – power. Betts has 22 home runs to Altuve’s nine and scored 11 more runs. The difference between the two in RBI and batting average is negligible.

Betts is the second best fantasy outfielder in the game. Altuve is the best fantasy option at second base. In the end, I leaned to the power from Betts with everything else almost being a wash. You can’t really go wrong with either player.

3. Jose Altuve Preseason ADP #3, Nolan Arenado

As mentioned above, I think it’s a true toss-up between Betts and Altuve for the second best offensive player in the game right now. Altuve is going to score runs, hit for average and steal bases. Arenado will definitely hit for more power and will drive in more runs but I still can’t get the “Coors factor” out of my head. Playing 81 games in Denver is definitely an asset to Arenado and I don’t think the Rockies lineup is as deep as the Astros. To me, this was why I’d take Altuve over Arenado the second time around.

4. Nolan Arenado Preseason ADP #4, Trea Turner

Like Betts and Altuve, I really struggled to pick Arenado over Manny Machado. Their stats are almost identical.

Name	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS
Arenado	321	58	98	22	63	2	.305	.391
Machado	346	44	107	21	60	6	.309	.382

The key difference is runs. Arenado plays for a team currently winning ball games. Machado simply doesn’t have much of anything on the Baltimore Orioles to help him, especially in the runs category. Neither one of them are going to steal bases. The one factor you could figure in is position. Machado has both third and shortstop eligibility while Arenado would only have third. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up.

5. Manny Machado Preseason ADP #5, Clayton Kershaw

It wasn’t the year to pay up for baseball’s consensus top pitcher with back issues limiting him to 69 innings to date. Kershaw is an easy exclude from my re-do first round.

Even though Machado has third base and shortstop eligibility, I still drafted Arenado ahead of him. That said, I love Machado’s passion for the game and the numbers he puts up are fantastic. His team, quite frankly, stinks. The very real possibility still exists that Machado will get traded to a contending team, where he’d have protection around him and pushing his fantasy value higher. Right now, he’s the only threat in the Orioles lineup and the league knows it.

6. Jose Ramirez Preseason ADP #6, Bryce Harper

Ah, Mr. Harper. At the beginning of the season I wrote Harper isn’t worthy of a first round pick and I’ve turned out to be right. Insert pat on the back here. Harper started out on fire but has cooled considerably since May and finds not only himself, by the Washington Nationals in a tailspin.

Enter Jose Ramirez who has been as consistent as he was last year. He isn’t flashy but can flat out hit. His 24 home runs are fourth in MLB and he’s driven in 59 runs. The thing that makes Ramirez appealing is the fact he gets to pad his stats against the worst division in baseball – the AL Central. Facing the “staffs” of the Twins, Tigers, White Sox and Royals is like an all-state varsity player facing a JV squad.

7. J.D. Martinez Preseason ADP #7, Paul Goldschmidt

Although Goldy has been hitting the cover off the ball the past couple of weeks, Martinez is exactly what the Boston Red Sox needed. He leads the majors in home runs with 28 and RBI with 77. Oh, and he’s also hitting a solid .331. Playing DH primarily allows Martinez to stay healthy, which was a concern when he hit the free agent market this past off season. You know with the lineup Boston can run out there, as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to continue to put up huge numbers and I think may be a Top 12-15 player overall next year.

8. Francisco Lindor Preseason ADP #8, Giancarlo Stanton

The hype before the season was Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton possibly hitting 100 home runs combined. There is no doubt that Stanton has held up his end of the power but its feast or famine with him. He’s struck out 122 times and to put that in perspective, the league leader is Yoan Moncada with 126.

We’ve talked the left side of the infield most of this early draft but arguably the best shortstop out there may indeed by Francisco Lindor. He checks all the boxes as far as offense goes: runs, avg, rbi, home runs, and stolen bases. As with Jose Ramirez, he plays the horrible AL Central. The Indians are going to continue to run away with the division and Lindor will definitely get his.

9. Luis Severino Preseason ADP #9, Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon signed a big contract extension with the Colorado Rockies in the off-season. His numbers aren’t bad but not near what they had been the past couple of years. At the beginning of the year, you’d definitely take Blackmon but not now.

Severino has been the best pitcher in the American League and if it weren’t for Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball this year. He’s fourth in the majors with 123.1 innings, first in wins, seventh in strikeouts, and tied for third in WAR with 5.1. With the Yankees offense and the bullpen behind him (Robertson, Greene and Chapman) he is going to win his fair share of games. I have to admit, I had deGrom down but the fact that the Mets stink and the Yankees don’t made me pick Severino.

10. Max Scherzer Preseason ADP #10, Mookie Betts

I have already moved Betts up to number two in this fantasy baseball mock draft, so I’ll go ahead and focus on why Mad Max would be the 10th overall pick. He simply is doing Max things again this year. His record is 11-5 and he leads the league in innings pitched (127.2) and strikeouts (177). He also is sporting a 2.33 ERA. He has about 13 starts left which will possibly allow him to reach 300 strikeouts.

I had Scherzer rated ahead of Kershaw, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber at the beginning of the year and if it weren’t for Severino’s wins, he’d be a pick ahead of where he is now.

11. Aaron Judge Preseason ADP #11, Max Scherzer

We’re getting down to the end of the first round and looking at it from a fantasy standpoint, you have to start asking yourself what your strategy is. Is it hitter/hitter, pitcher/hitter, or pitcher/pitcher? With Sale, Kluber and Justin Verlander all still available, I think you need to go with a hitter and that hitter is Aaron Judge.

I thought Judge would take a step back after his break out season last year but that hasn’t been the case. He’s hit 25 home runs, driven in 60 and putting up a solid .281 batting average. He’s also nabbed six bags. Not bad for a power hitter of Judge’s capability. To get Judge with the 11th pick and able to get a stud starting pitcher is the best case at this point.

12. Corey Kluber Preseason ADP #12, Chris Sale

Please understand that this was honestly a coin flip. Sale has established himself as one of the top five pitchers in the game. He’s on pace for over 200+ strikeouts again this year and will undoubtedly get 15-18 wins.

The turning point for me though taking Kluber over Sale is two-fold. One, the Indians’ AL Central division is terrible and Kluber can add to his dominance facing those horrible teams. Sale gets to face the Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, but he also has to face the New York Yankees, a minus in Sale’s column.

Two, Kluber is a control freak. He’s walked only 15 hitters this season. Sale has allowed twice as many, which is still good, but, twice as many. In the AL Central a few extra base runners is not a big deal. In the AL East, it could be the difference between a win and a loss.

So there you have it. The pre-All Star Game “do over” fantasy baseball draft. Undoubtedly, there will be some disagreement but that is completely fine. Make your case in the comments. Next time, round two.

Extra Innings

I really thought that the Minnesota Twins had a shot to be in the Wild Card mix this year. Boy was I wrong. I drank the Kool-Aid and now have a tummy ache because of it. I’m a sucker for a feel good story though so if the Twins aren’t going to make it, I’d like to see the Seattle Mariners finally get back to the playoffs.

Not since 2001 have the M’s played post-season baseball, and they’ve had really good talent in the organization but hasn’t got them over the hump; namely King Felix.

Felix Hernandez has given everything he possibly can/could to the M’s and hasn’t sniffed the post-season. He’s finally in a position where there is some light at the end of the tunnel. General Manager Jerry DiPoto has master minded trade after trade trying to give the Emerald City another shot at playoff redemption. Good luck to the M’s and King Felix. Hopefully this is your year.

Buy and Sell Advice for Johnny Cueto, Gerrit Cole, Didi Gregorius, Rhys Hoskins

April 10, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Andy checks in with five players to buy or sell soon before their asking price goes up, or before their hot start fades. Houston Astros starting pitcher Gerrit Cole is a strong buy.

The second full week of the season is underway and a lot of us might be pushing the panic button already because of a slow start. Fear not. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, but you may also look at fantasy baseball as a stock market game – buy low and sell high – to push your team higher in the standings. Here are some thoughts on five players based on their recent performance.

Dansby Swanson, ATL

Atlanta Braves offense is among the top teams in runs scored this year and that’s without top prospect Ronald Acuna. Swansby was a top rated prospect for the Arizona Diamondbacks until they sent him to the Braves for Shelby Miller (oops). Still, Swanson is hitting .400 with one home run and seven RBI early on.

Although these are solid numbers to start the year, I don’t think he’s going to maintain it. He’s only 24 years old but reviewing his prior two season, he has only six stolen bases, so he doesn’t add much on the basepaths, and has a combined WAR of 1.3 for his MLB career. He’s not in danger of losing his job but there are plenty of other options out there.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
If you can, find a Braves fan exchanging Swanson for a slow starting but reliable veteran, and hopefully with rose-colored glasses they will take him off your hands. Otherwise, you may end up dropping him sooner rather than later.

Johnny Cueto, SF

If the San Francisco Giants didn’t have bad luck, they wouldn’t have any luck at all. Madison Bumgarner is out until May and Mark Melancon is out for the foreseeable future with forearm surgery. Cueto has a stellar 0.69 ERA through the first week of the season but there is no way this continues. Cueto has good name recognition but was projected as a 5th to 6th tier starting pitcher, with a .500 record and an ERA nearing 3.80 to 3.90 and WHIP nearing 1.30.

You have to tip your cap to Cuteo. In his first two games this year, he struck out 11 against the Los Angeles Dodgers giving up one hit and shut down a tough Seattle Mariners’ offense giving up eight hits in his six innings of work. However, he is heading into his age 32 season and has close to 1,800 innings in that right arm. Facing the Dodgers in LA and the Mariners in Seattle are both good pitching matchups, but the weather will soon warm up and so will team’s bats.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
The Giants offense isn’t going to be able to score enough runs to get Cueto wins and that ERA is ripe to blow up.

Gerrit Cole, HOU

After watching Cole pitch this weekend, I still can’t believe he’s identified as the Houston Astros’ number four starter. It certainly speaks to the talent on this team. His fastball is 95+ and he’s throwing it like he did during his 2015 year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. I targeted Cole in my drafts but unfortunately missed out. If he’s available in your league at a reasonable price, jump on it.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
Maybe the owner in your league with Cole will accept an offer involving a higher drafted pitcher you think is less likely to sustain a good start, like Rick Porcello or maybe even Johnny Cueto. With the lineup support and the fact he’s facing other team’s lower end pitchers, Cole is in line for a great season.

Didi Gregorius, NYY

Gregorius is in a win/win situation. Depending on how Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton do ahead of him, he’s either going to see a ton of pitches because opposing teams don’t want to throw cookies to Judge or Stanton, or pitchers will decide to throw to Gregorius and try and avoid Gary Sanchez.

On April 3rd, Stanton was o’fer with eight guys left on base. Gregorius oddly enough had eight RBI including two home runs. Although Stanton has been struggling, it doesn’t seem to impact Gregorius to a great degree, and I expect Stanton to come around anyway. Didi had a break out season last year hitting 25 home runs and driving in 87. His numbers improved every year since 2015 and he has really taken over for the guy who used to play shortstop for the Yankees; Derek something or other.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
I honestly would give up Elvis Andrus to get Didi. Didi will hit for more power, score more runs and have a higher OPS than Andrus. He’s a top offensive shortstop and should be on your team. Buy now before the price gets higher.

Rhys Hoskins, PHI

The upside for Hoskins is tremendous based on the limited amount of at-bats and what he did with said at-bats. He is off to a good start this season with one home run and seven RBI. In 195 at-bats in 2017, Hoskins hit 19 home runs and drove in 55. In 2016 with the Reading Fightin’ Phils of Class AA, he hit .281 with 38 home runs and 116 RBI. When he finally got the call last year, he was hitting .284 with 29 home runs and 91 RBI at the AAA level.

Hoskins has plenty of protection in the lineup from Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. The Phillies are going to score runs. It is the other things that worry me with the Phillies (the manager, the manager and the manager), but Hoskins should continue to put up big numbers.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
You can sell a trade to Hoskins’ fantasy owner leaning on the uncertainty playing for Gabe Kapler. Perhaps move Joey Votto for Hoskins plus another nice piece to bolster your team.