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Fantasy Football Draft Round 1 Considerations

July 25, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2018 fantasy football rankings are up and here are fantasy football draft round 1 considerations. Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell is certainly in the mix for top of the first, but with some concerns.

My initial 2018 fantasy football rankings were posted last week, with a couple caveats. This morning the rankings are updated for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker, plus top 125 overall rankings.

That is a good start, but not as helpful as with some commentary to show the thought process behind them. Why are certain players higher or lower than the consensus average draft position (ADP)? Lets start with the Top 12 which is essentially my fantasy football draft round 1.

Overall
Rank Name Pos ADP1
1 RB T. Gurley, LAR RB1 1.02
2 RB E. Elliott, DAL RB2 1.03
3 RB L. Bell, PIT RB3 1.03
4 WR A. Brown, PIT WR1 1.06
5 WR D. Hopkins, HOU WR2 1.09
6 WR O. Beckham Jr., NYG WR3 1.12
7 RB D. Johnson, ARI RB4 1.04
8 RB S. Barkley, NYG ® RB5 1.06
9 WR J. Jones, ATL WR4 2.03
10 RB K. Hunt, KC RB6 1.11
11 RB D. Cook, MIN RB7 1.12
12 RB L. Fournette, JAC RB8 1.08
13 RB A. Kamara, NO RB9 1.06
14 WR D. Adams, GB WR5 2.06
15 WR M. Thomas, NO WR6 2.04
16 WR A. Green, CIN WR7 2.08
17 TE R. Gronkowski, NE TE1 2.12
18 RB M. Gordon, LAC RB10 1.10
19 WR K. Allen, LAC WR8 2.07
20 RB D. Freeman, ATL RB11 2.04
21 RB C. McCaffrey, CAR RB12 2.12
22 WR D. Baldwin, SEA WR9 3.03
23 WR T. Hilton, IND WR10 3.10
24 QB A. Rodgers, GB QB1 3.02

1 Fantasy Football Calculator (12 team)

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 1-6

1. RB Todd Gurley, LAR

I have five players in my Tier 1 running backs, adding Saquon Barkley to that group this morning. We know based on history at least one, probably two and possibly more will disappoint the high expectations that come with the fortune of having a Top 4 (or Top 1 or Top 2 or Top 3 or Top 5, depending on the year) draft pick. For me, I tend to rank that top group not so much on floor, ceiling, talent, etc., although that all comes into play, but rather which player is the least likely to disappoint. That is the guy I want with my top pick. That player is Todd Gurley. There are fewer red flags with Gurley compared the each of the next four running backs, which is why he is generally considered the consensus number one overall pick this fantasy draft season.

2. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

Elliott has slightly more red flags than Gurley, but I would argue less than Le’Veon Bell, slotting him in the number two spot for me. The Dallas Cowboys are not expected to be a top offense this season given the ultra-thin receiving corps, although coupled with Dak Prescott they should be able to show enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. The offensive line is still a huge strength, and Elliott the best pure runner in the league with a team committed to giving him a heavy workload. Even a dishonest defense is going to get exhausted trying to tackle this guy in the second half of games.

3. RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

Bell is absolute money for fantasy owners finishing in the RB2-RB4 range since his sophomore season (points-per-game in 2015 due to playing in only 6 games). That is performance scoring, no points-per-reception (PPR), in which he creates even more distance from his peers averaging 80 catches the past two seasons. Too bad that hasn’t translated into a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which leads us into yet another season in which Bell is skipping all of training camp. I respect his bet on himself mentality playing on the one-year franchise tag, but missed camp worries me he is more likely to get injured early in the season.

Also, “everyone” apparently hated now departed offensive coordinator Todd Haley. I’m sure Haley had a personality that rubbed Ben Roethlisberger and a whole bunch of people the wrong way but lets face facts – the guy knows offense and deserves a good deal of credit for the Steelers offensive juggernaut in recent seasons. Now Haley is gone and that worries me the potential negative impact on the whole offense of which Bell is the main beneficiary. Note these worries are not enough to push Bell far down the board, but based on risk, I am more comfortable with Gurley or Elliott than Bell.

4. WR Antonio Brown, PIT

Fantasy football drafts are back sliding into running back heavy affairs, and many will see the top five or six picks all take a RB before the first wide receiver is off the board. That is a mistake in leagues with three or more WR relative to two RB starters, and especially in PPR leagues.

No one would really bat an eyelash if Antonio Brown was drafted number one overall each of the past 4-5 seasons, and you know the guy who drafted him was certainly happy with the results. Wide receivers are safer picks than running backs. Antonio Brown is matchup proof. Taking Brown is a very positive use of draft capital.

The comments on Haley, above, don’t necessarily apply the same here. If the offense keeps chugging along as in the past, great, and great for Brown owners. If the offense stutters at all, the answer will be to throw to Brown. Brown is a worthy Top 4 pick and if you are skittish on any of the running backs, feel free to push him up to as high as number one on your board.

5. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

It appears I am higher on Deshaun Watson than most people, as I see repeatedly how fantasy experts state Watson is greatly overvalued. Sure, there is hype based on a small sample from last season and he is returning from a major injury. These are very logical conclusions to avoid Watson where he is typically getting drafted. At what point however do we sit back and say, “the guy is just that good”?

I do not say this lightly, but I think there is something to the thought we are witnessing a generational talent at the quarterback position. Health reports on his rehab are very good, so my concern there is mitigated. To watch him set the league on fire this season, wait until this time next year and declare Watson is in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers, doesn’t show fantasy experts are willing to stick their neck out very far, so I will. He has the ability of finishing QB2+. If I can get Watson around QB4 or later, then I absolutely will draft him.

Oh, my bad, this is supposed to be about DeAndre Hopkins. He will be the primary beneficiary and contributor to Watson’s success. Hopkins is 26 years old and primed to make last season and his 2015 stat line the norm. Anyone else tired of hearing the word regression from fantasy football experts?

Lets call this for what it is. Hopkins is super-talented. He is on a very good team. He will be showered with targets. Again, wide receivers are safer than running backs, putting Nuk in my Top 5.

6. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

Similar in concept to my reasons for Le’Veon Bell ranking behind Gurley and Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr. is not less talented or less capable of finishing WR1 than Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. However, he is a more risky proposition to get there than the other two.

We sometimes forget in our fantasy football analysis that these players are not robots, they are people. And people – particularly professional football players – do stupid things. Brown and Hopkins have shown less evidence of doing stupid things that could impact their on-field performance than someone like, say, Beckham. Its a character thing.

What Beckham accomplished in his first three seasons in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous, and then he got injured last season. I have no trouble drafting Beckham (hey, we are only half way through the first round here), but I feel safer with the other two wideouts. Based on fantasy football drafts so far, with their RB-heavy focus, there is a good chance you end up with Beckham using these rankings but drafting as late as eighth to tenth overall.

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 7-12

I am getting a little long with the commentary so time to shorten things up a bit. Anyone who emails me Draft Buddy tech support questions, or questions about their fantasy league, can usually expect a fairly detailed response. Maybe I need to do more fantasy football advice on Twitter to learn to give more concise answers.

7. RB David Johnson, ARI

David Johnson is squarely in the Tier 1 RB group by most rankings sets, often as high as RB2. The Arizona Cardinals are not expected to be very good though, am I right? For supporting cast we aren’t even positive if or how long Sam Bradford will start ahead of rookie QB Josh Rosen. They’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and … a whole lot of wishful thinking at receiver. Offensive guru coach Bruce Arians is gone. This team is rebuilding. Sure, a lot of volume for David Johnson and his talent puts him in the conversation but I don’t love the idea of using my first round pick on a RB for a team I expect is more likely to struggle than not. For the third time, wide receivers are safer.

8. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

We have no NFL history with Barkley which will lead some to say hey, no way am I taking a rookie with my first round pick. I like to have an open mind and try to never say never. Maybe Barkley is the next great thing at RB. Enough smart people who did the necessary scouting and research are singing his praises, and we have come a long way scouting football talent since Ki-Jana Carter, or the 2005 NFL Draft with running backs picks 2nd, 4th and 5th overall (and each of those guys were decent for stretches). Sure, the New York Giants are, like the Cardinals, not a good team. Unlike the Cardinals, there is a decent offensive supporting cast in place to contribute to Barkley’s success.

9. WR Julio Jones, ATL

Not reporting to Atlanta Falcons training camp due to a contract dispute does not make me particularly enamored with Julio Jones right now, so this ranking may drop. The sides each seem pretty stuck in that no new contract will be forthcoming prior to this season. More touchdowns would also be nice. On the plus side, Jones is sliding into the second round. He’s going to play, he might have a chip on his shoulder and I’m sure Matt Ryan has no issue helping Jones pad his stats as much as possible. A 1,400 yard floor and potential for 100 catches, I do feel better with him on my squad than the next group of riskier running backs.

10. RB Kareem Hunt, KC

If you drafted Hunt late last year, congrats. He was one of the stories of the NFL and particularly fantasy football in 2017 as an unheralded prospect, flung into action due to an injury to incumbent Spencer Ware. Great offense (although first year starting quarterback) and projected high workload make Hunt the expected man again for 2018. He did fade through the middle of last season but does contribute in the passing game. This is neither an aggressively positive or overly negative outlook for Hunt.

11. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN

A player that really impressed me last season was Dalvin Cook. Knee injury in Week 4! Bah! What a disappointment. Knee injuries are not the same concern coming back from them as they used to be, especially when they are early in the season. We will want to keep close tabs on reports about Cook through training camp. Skill-wise and playing on a top defensive minded team, this is perhaps a bit high from consensus but a decent ranking for Cook and his upside. Really, the players ranked in this range and through the next six or so picks are all somewhat interchangeable. Pick the guy you like, and Cook is one I do like.

12. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC

Fournette is very similar to me as Cook. Talented running back, playing on a team with a strong defense, he should be in many games with what the daily fantasy guys call a positive game script. Fournette only played in 13 games last year, finished RB8, and more than 15 points better than RB9. In most leagues drafting end of the first round you will want a RB with one of your first two picks, and Fournette is a good foundation for your team.

Other Considerations

RB Alvin Kamara, NO

This will be the player most will say is mistakenly missing from my Top 12. No doubt Kamara was superb last season, but a player who excels that much in a timeshare is typically a player I will fade the following season when expectations thrust him into the first round.

WR Davante Adams, GB and WR Michael Thomas, NO

I absolutely love Davante Adams this year as the trending up and go-to guy for Aaron Rodgers. He can certainly return first round value. Michael Thomas is great too, and I am not writing off Drew Brees yet as some are. My late first round drafts will usually lean to a balanced approach, taking 1 RB and 1 WR, so drafting any combination of Hunt/Cook/Fournette/Kamara and Jones/Adams/Thomas/A.J. Green is an ideal start.

TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Gronk is a difference maker. With Julian Edelman out to start the season, and Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis gone from the New England Patriots, a healthy Gronk could be exceptional. Perhaps this is one of the few ways to get value from your late first round pick. In a league giving extra value to the TE position, I would give high consideration to Gronk. In other leagues I wouldn’t begrudge you taking him this high either.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Most fantasy experts will tell you absolutely do not draft Aaron Rodgers with your first round pick. I am not going to do that. That applies to most of their (the experts’) leagues. Lets not worry about their leagues and lets worry about your league. Your league you may very well provide a big advantage owning the consensus number one quarterback.

Without diving too deep into this subject, even if the format and scoring is the same as expert leagues, in more casual leagues QB tend to get drafted earlier, and top RB and WR are more likely to fall deeper in the draft. And it can be more difficult to trade in your local league. So, considering Rodgers is a difference maker at a position potentially valued very highly in your league, if that costs you a first round pick, so be it.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Preliminary 2016 Wide Receiver Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 7, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

A.J. Green

Miss out on the top two RB in your draft? No worries. It might even be better to set your team up with one of these stud WR, including the Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green.

The last two days we posted preliminary quarterback tiers and running back tiers for the upcoming fantasy football season. Today, the longest list at 70 players, our preliminary wide receiver tiers.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

Expect detailed projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Feel free to post your feedback in the comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

A.J. Green
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Odell Beckham Jr.

Tier 2

Allen Robinson
DeAndre Hopkins
Dez Bryant
Mike Evans
T.Y. Hilton

Tier 3

Alshon Jeffery
Amari Cooper
Brandon Marshall
Demaryius Thomas
Jarvis Landry
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 4

Brandin Cooks
Doug Baldwin
Eric Decker
Golden Tate
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Keenan Allen
Kelvin Benjamin

Tier 5

Allen Hurns
DeSean Jackson
Donte Moncrief
Emmanuel Sanders
John Brown
Jordan Matthews
Markus Wheaton
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Sterling Shepard ®

Tier 6

DeVante Parker
Kendall Wright
Kevin White
Marvin Jones
Michael Crabtree
Michael Floyd
Stefon Diggs
Steve Smith
Tavon Austin
Ted Ginn
Torrey Smith
Tyler Lockett
Vincent Jackson
Willie Snead

Tier 7

Bruce Ellington
Corey Coleman ®
Jerome Simpson
Kamar Aiken
Kenny Britt
Laquon Treadwell ®
Michael Thomas ®
Mike Wallace
Mohamed Sanu
Pierre Garcon
Robert Woods
Terrance Williams

Tier 8

Brandon LaFell
Danny Amendola
Dorial Green-Beckham
Jamison Crowder
Josh Doctson ®
Nelson Agholor
Rueben Randle
Sammie Coates
Travis Benjamin
Tyler Boyd ®

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Cincinnati Bengals Team Report

July 7, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

QB Andy Dalton

After posting career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns with 4,296 and 33 in 2013, while finishing as the 3rd ranked fantasy quarterback, Dalton regressed badly in 2014, throwing for just 3,398 yards and 19 touchdowns. Hue Jackson took over as the team’s offensive coordinator, and the Bengals leaned on their rushing attack more than in recent years, plus key receivers suffered through an injury marred campaign. A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to miss significant time. While we don’t expect the Bengals to alter their run-pass ratio very much in 2015, we do expect Dalton to increase his production. With a healthy Green (three missed games) as well as Jones (16 missed games) and Eifert (15 missed games) back in the lineup, coupled with dynamic pass receiving running back Giovani Bernard and a solid possession receiver in Mohamed Sanu, Dalton has plenty of weapons at his disposal. He rates as a mid to lower tier QB2.

RB Jeremy Hill

Cincinnati Bengals RB Jeremy Hill wowed us as a rookie, and crushed high expectations for Giovani Bernard fantasy owners. What is he going to do for an encore?

Cincinnati Bengals RB Jeremy Hill wowed us as a rookie, and crushed high expectations for Giovani Bernard fantasy owners. What is he going to do for an encore?

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s NFL Draft, Hill was expected to play second fiddle to Giovani Bernard in his rookie season, spelling the flashy 2nd year player as well as handling short yardage work. However, a hip injury suffered by Bernard at midseason opened up an opportunity for the LSU product, and he took advantage of it in a big way, finishing the season with 1,124 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns and 215 receiving yards. At 6’1” and 235 pounds, Hill used his size well during his rookie season, establishing himself as a north-south runner capable of producing the occasional big play, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. With Bernard struggling as a runner (career yards per carry of 4.1), Hill figures to handle rushing down duties for the Bengals other than when offensive coordinator Hue Jackson feels he needs a breather. Since we expect the Bengals offense to rate in the league’s top 10 in 2015, we consider Hill a lower tier RB1 in redraft formats as well as an outstanding dynasty league prospect.

RB Giovani Bernard

After accumulating 1,209 total yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie in 2013, Bernard was touted as a potential breakout candidate in 2014. However, that proved to be optimistic as fantasy pundits failed to place enough emphasis on the 14.1 touches per game he averaged as a rookie as well as the role that rookie 2nd round pick Jeremy Hill would play. Sure enough, Bernard opened the season in the lead role before suffering a hip injury that caused him to miss three games while also creating an opportunity for Hill to emerge as the team’s starting running back. While Bernard’s production on a per game basis was very similar to his rookie season, he is firmly entrenched as Hill’s backup. With Bernard operating as a change of pace, receiving option out of the backfield, we still expect him to average between 12-15 touches per game which should allow to produce as a lower tier RB2, albeit one who may produce on an inconsistent basis.

WR A.J. Green

After amassing an impressive 3,833 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns during his first three years in the league, Green suffered through the worst year of his career in 2014, catching 69 passes for 1,041 yards with six touchdowns. A toe injury caused him to miss three games and he was limited in several others. With a return to health in 2015, we expect Green to return to the production he displayed in 2013. While the fantasy crowd seems to be discounting Green somewhat due to his lack of production last season, the Bengals increased reliance on the running game and the emergence of Mohamed Sanu and the return to health of Marvin Jones and tight end Tyler Eifert, we aren’t buying that narrative. The big dog needs to be fed and there is no doubt that Green is the big dog in the Bengals passing attack. We rate him as a top five fantasy wide receiver and see another 1,300 yard, touchdown season on the horizon.

WR Marvin Jones

After producing a breakout season in 2013 with 51 receptions for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns, Jones’ 2014 was lost to injury as he missed the entire season with ankle problems. Entering his 4th year in the league, Jones has breakout potential provided he can shake off the rust and build on the progress he displayed two seasons ago. With Jones back in the lineup, we expect the Bengals to throw the ball more often as their group of receivers suffered through an injury-plagued 2014 season. However, with Mohamed Sanu having established himself in 2013 and the Bengals anxious to see what tight end Tyler Eifert can do as he also returns from injury, Jones rates as a WR5 until he strings together a couple of productive weeks.

WR Mohamed Sanu

With A.J. Green missing time with a toe injury and Marvin Jones out for the entire 2014 season, Sanu posted career highs across the board with 56 receptions for 790 yards and five touchdowns. He will battle Jones for a spot in the starting lineup in 2015, but the smart money is on Jones. While Sanu posted a surprising 14.1 yards per reception, that was an outlier that belies his lack of speed. He averaged under 10 yards per reception during his first two years in the league. Since we don’t expect that Sanu will usurp Jones for a spot in the starting lineup and tight end Tyler Eifert will likely eat into Sanu’s role on short and intermediate routes, look for Sanu to struggle to match his 2014 production. We don’t recommend him in any format. A regression to 400-500 yards with 3-4 touchdowns seems likely.

WR Denarius Moore

Unreliable and wildly inconsistent during his first four years in the league with the Oakland Raiders, Denarius Moore brings his outstanding speed to the Bengals in 2015. While Moore’s career arc is clearly pointing down, he rates as a player to keep on the back burner given that Marvin Jones is returning from injury and Mohamed Sanu rates as a poor option to play alongside A.J. Green. If Jones doesn’t return to form and Moore works his way into the starting lineup, he could produce the odd big week and be worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.

TE Tyler Eifert

Coming off a productive rookie season in which he caught 39 passes for 445 yards and a pair of touchdowns after being taken in the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Eifert was expected to take another step forward in his 2nd season and relegate Jermaine Gresham to more of a backup role. However, a dislocated elbow ended his season after just one game, putting his breakout hopes on hold. With Gresham not back for 2015, Eifert once again rates as a potential breakout player but he has some roadblocks in his way. Wide receiver Mohamed Sanu emerged as a solid receiving option in 2014, Marvin Jones returns from injury and running back Giovani Bernard has averaged 50 receptions per year during his two seasons in the league. While we expect the Bengals to throw the ball more in 2015, Eifert remains a low end TE2 in redraft formats and a good but not great prospect in dynasty leagues.

Also see: Cincinnati Bengals IDP Team Report | Cleveland Browns Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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