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Scott Fish Bowl SFB8 Fantasy Football Draft Preparation

July 10, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Scott Fish Bowl
The Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8) draft kicked off Monday at 11:00am Eastern, and I am in the Norm Peterson league of the Cheers / Seinfeld conference.

Never heard of the Scott Fish Bowl? It is one of the most fun fantasy football expert leagues (and in this case expert + fan competition) to participate in. There is no money at stake, but this 900 person event does raise considerable funds for charity through FantasyCares.net. It is an awesome event for the fantasy football community.

Unique League Rules

This is a large overall competition but it is broken down into 12-team leagues. Focusing on the individual league aspect, here are some key rules to give you some context to the draft results:

  • Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex spots, maximum 1 Flex a QB
  • 22 roster spots so it is a fairly deep league, especially considering no K or DEF
  • QB scoring 6 points per TD, -4 point per INT – very punitive
  • reception scoring 0.5 points all positions, except 1.0 points for TE
  • first down scoring 0.5 points per rushing or receiving, except 1.0 points for TE

Pretty unique, isn’t it? So we can start 2 QB but the interceptions are killers. It is a lot of weekly starters. TE are added value with the double points for receptions and first downs relative to RB and WR. And, points for first downs!

First Down Scoring

Preparing for the first down stat scoring, which is not a very common fantasy points category, took some thought. I considered pulling 2017 player stats for first downs from my database and inputting them into Draft Buddy, but that wouldn’t be exceptionally helpful. Historical stats will match to players from last year, but not match to projections for the upcoming season which is what I use to help generate my cheatsheets.

Instead, I reviewed the first down stats to get a sense how impactful this category is on the scoring. It is fairly significant, mostly because it contributes primarily to RB, WR and TE scoring, but not QB unless they run a lot. Note, no points for a passing first down.

Sometimes you to use a little ingenuity to get your custom cheatsheet and draft tool (Draft Buddy) to give you the best results. In this case, I goosed up the reception points to account for receiving first downs, and gave some points for rushing attempts to account for rushing first downs.

For example, my analysis suggested a relationship of WR receiving first downs about 70% of reception totals, so I added 0.35 points per reception (to the existing 0.5). That is 0.5 per first down x 70% = 0.35. I did similar for the first down scoring for each type and position.

D-I-Y Average Draft Position Data

I have the 12th pick in the draft. Buddy Jim Day, a.k.a. @Fantasytaz, organized some pre-SFB8 draftmasters drafts to allow players some practice drafting, from which I compiled ADP you can find in the tweet below, and Google Sheets document.

I’ve always liked this view format, so thought I would try it for #SFB8 ADP. Top 120 players… @Fantasytaz @ScottFish24 pic.twitter.com/QT3P8jFy4x

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) July 6, 2018

In my practice draft I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, but as SFB8 got closer there seemed to be some buzz as to the QB values going up. Everyone wants to start two QB, and no one wants to be left with sketchy QB options as likely to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns each week. So, I was hopeful to get Rodgers again in my real draft, and he is the only QB I would consider at that spot.

Custom Cheatsheets

With the rules and scoring input, plus ADP, Draft Buddy kicked out custom cheatsheets for me. Presented below are the Top 12 at each position. These are based on the default projections in Draft Buddy, from FF Today, so I won’t necessarily draft exactly as shown on the cheatsheets.

In fact, I would not normally do that anyway, because I look at each draft as sort of a living, evolving experience, where opinions and strategies change as it progresses. Perhaps more on that another time. I will get into more specifics about some of my decisions made through the draft, but if you want a sneak peek at my picks, currently through four rounds, you can review the draft report.

Draft Buddy custom cheatsheets
SBF8 Top 12 QB
SBF8 Top 12 RB
SBF8 Top 12 RB
SBF8 Top 12 WR
SBF8 Top 12 WR
SBF8 Top 12 TE
SBF8 Top 12 TE

I will post my copy of Draft Buddy for this draft to our download page for our Draft Buddy members to review if interested.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Dynasty League Football 2QB Mock Draft With Commentary, Rounds 1-5

February 18, 2014 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

I’m participating in another fantasy football dynasty mock draft, organized by the dudes over at Dynasty League Football. The key, huge difference in this one from last time however, is this is a start two quarterback draft.

Starting 2 QB really bumps up the value of that position, because although I generally agree to draft QB late-ish (or at least at the point of getting exceptional value), you can quickly be left out in the cold if you don’t get at least one reliable, quality QB. In a 2 QB league, if your quarterbacks are not good, you just can’t win. No two ways about it.

That said, you want to be careful and not reach too early for an average QB, passing over the studs at RB, WR and TE. Those positions still count. Once you get into the middle tiers of quarterbacks, the expected points can be pretty similar. Positions for this make believe league are 2 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex RB/WR/TE for 9 total starters. Scoring is 1 point-per-reception.

Strategy-wise I want to get one top tier QB in the first two rounds. Drafting in the 8 spot, if I don’t get one at 8 or 17 overall, then I run the risk of very slim pickings in the third round or later. The interesting thing about a draft like this is owners can approach it a lot of different ways, and some top tier RB and WR will fall further than normal, making decisions tougher through the early stages as we build the foundation for our next great fantasy football dynasty.

1.08 RB LeSean McCoy, PHI

Not surprisingly, five quarterbacks went in the first six picks, and all them with a good number of NFL service years in front of them with the exception of Drew Brees, who is 35. A.J. Green and Jamaal Charles were the only non-QB off the board before my pick. That leaves me with a decision between adding a top RB or WR, or taking the next best QB. Given we are already in the second tier of QB, I’d rather run the risk one comes back to me, like Russell Wilson, than reach here and miss out on a player like McCoy or Josh Gordon.

McCoy it is. I think my counterpart drafting seventh has the right idea taking one of the unquestioned top two RB off the board at this spot. I prefer McCoy to Charles by a hair. It is hard to believe this guy is only 25. As I said in the prior dynasty mock draft, “great player, great fit offense.” Not a lot of analysis needed here once I decided to pass on QB out of the gate.

Favourite Pick Round 1: 1.01 QB Aaron Rodgers, GB – Only one person can get this pick but Rodgers first overall is a no-brainer in this league, and gives this team a big advantage to start. I’m also partial to pick 1.06 QB Nick Foles, PHI.

Least Favourite Pick Round 1: 1.11 QB Peyton Manning, DEN – I love Peyton but he isn’t discounted enough for dynasty to justify taking him this high in the draft.

2.05 QB Philip Rivers, SD

Russell Wilson did not make it back to me, as owner RazlDazles doubled up at QB on the end taking Matthew Stafford and Wilson. Overall the decision to pass on QB in the first round paid off as only two others were drafted, Manning and Matt Ryan, leaving me to decide between an established starter at QB in Rivers, or younger but with some red flags such as Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III.

There are some great options available at other positions, namely Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery, making it very tempting to pass on QB again, but ultimately QB is the way to go here. Rivers is the pick even with the age gap compared to the other choices. Rivers rebounded superbly last year from a down 2012 season, and I’m not expecting regression given his up and coming supporting cast of skill players to toss the ball to.

Favourite Pick Round 2: 2.11 WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI

Least Favourite Pick Round 2: 2.09 QB Robert Griffin III, WAS

3.08 WR Keenan Allen, SD

Part of the thought process about being okay passing on a top WR in the prior round was not only to secure a really good QB, but because of hope to acquire this guy as my WR1. Allen had an exceptional rookie campaign. The Chargers eased him in the first three weeks last season. He still posted a 71-1,046-8 line on 104 targets, and the big stage in the NFL Playoffs didn’t phase him. Allen is the key cog in the up and coming supporting cast of skill players at Rivers’ disposal mentioned previously.

Favourite Pick Round 3: 3.12 WR Jordy Nelson, GB

Least Favourite Pick Round 3: 3.01 RB Doug Martin, TB

4.05 TE Julius Thomas, DEN

Thomas was a consideration last round based on his projected output, skills and youth. Although other owners will get a starting quality TE at really good value late in this draft, I still put a premium on acquiring a very top tier TE. For what Thomas brings to the table, this is a price I’m happy to pay. On the downside, Thomas can’t expect Peyton Manning to continue throwing him the ball the rest of his career. Although Manning was a huge factor in Thomas’ coming out party in 2013, I feel comfortable Thomas has the talent to stay amongst the top producing TE after Manning retires. Not to mention I’ll take top TE fantasy points from the Manning-to-Thomas connection for at least another season.

Favourite Pick Round 4: 4.04 C.J. Spiller, BUF

Least Favourite Pick Round 4: 4.01 Michael Crabtree, SF

5.08 WR Michael Floyd, ARI

Some really good wide receivers went ahead of this pick, including T.Y. Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and DeSean Jackson, leaving me debating Floyd versus DeAndre Hopkins. Floyd won the debate due to him having a little more experience under his belt entering his third season, he’s a tad bigger than Hopkins, and mostly the offensive philosophy under head coach Bruce Arians. Arians is proving to be one of the top offensive minds in coaching in the NFL, the way he ramped up Andrew Luck in a very short timespan, and reincarnated Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals attack last season. Floyd will continue to be a big benefactor under Arians, and opposite Fitzgerald, and we’ll see if he can develop into an elite WR. The future looks bright. Hopkins was taken two picks later.

Favourite Pick Round 5: 5.02 T.Y. Hilton, IND

Least Favourite Pick Round 5: 5.09 QB Blake Bortles (Rookie)

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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