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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

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Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Through Round 10 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Through Round 10 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Quintana 13% 0% 12% -1.25 -2.00
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Porcello 15% 0% 12% -2.50 -1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25
Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
New Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
New Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00
Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
New Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00
Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
New Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00
Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
New Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00
Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Seager (drafted 16.05) 8% 7% 8% 1% -1.50
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50
Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
New Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50
Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
New Pitching Total 69% 90% 77% 2.25 3.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50
Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
New Batting Total 97% 94% 98% 93% 1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
C – Wellington Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
C – Tyler Flowers 3% 4% 4% 0% -0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
2B – Brian Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
3B – Maikel Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
OF – Starling Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
OF – Max Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
MI – Tim Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
CI – Matt Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
Starters Total 100% 98% 102% 93% 1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Jeimer Candelario 3B 6% 7% 6% 0.02
Starlin Castro 2B 5% 6% 6% 0.04
Zack Cozart 3B 5% 6% 5% 0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Chris Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Charlie Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
Andrew Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Ross Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
Kenley Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Jose Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
Andrew Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
Core Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Jake Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
Zach Eflin 12% 0% 9% -1.75 -1.00
Trevor Cahill 8% 0% 8% -1.25 -2.00
Robbie Erlin 6% 0% 6% -1.50 -0.75
Ryan Brasier 3% 18% 4% 0.00 0.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
deGrom 16% 0% 17% 3.25 2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name G R HR RBI SB AVG
w/o Harper (prorated) 151 99 17 69 39 0.267
ATC Projection 151 98 19 73 43 0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Stanton 14% 9% 11% 3% 0.25
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Goldschmidt 11% 9% 10% 7% 2.00
Machado 12% 8% 10% 8% 1.75
Blackmon 9% 10% 7% 7% 2.75
Benintendi 6% 9% 8% 15% 1.75
Merrifield 4% 8% 7% 27% 1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
K.Davis 14% 9% 11% 1% -1.25
Rizzo 10% 8% 10% 4% 1.25
Bellinger 11% 8% 9% 9% 0.00
Hoskins 13% 9% 10% 3% -0.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Rendon 9% 8% 9% 3% 2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP) HR R RBI SB AVG
Marte (37) 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Villar (82) 5% 6% 5% 31% -0.25
M.Smith (99) 2% 7% 4% 30% 0.75
D.Gordon (109) 1% 7% 4% 28% 1.00
Hamilton (164) 1% 6% 3% 29% -1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75
Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
New Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50
Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
New Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Previous Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25
Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75
Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
New Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75
Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
New Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25
Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
New Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

Roll The Dice on These Unlucky Pitchers

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Philadelphia Phillies Nick Pivetta

Philadelphia Phillies Nick Pivetta was one of the unluckiest starting pitchers in 2018. Thanks to that, coupled with a decent K/9 and low ADP, Pivetta is a good bet as a 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitcher.

Last week I discussed starting pitchers that I thought were too lucky last season. They could be considered 2019 fantasy baseball overvalued pitchers, given their luck last season made them look better than they really are. We can’t expect that luck to continue this season.

Using the same process, here I highlight starting pitchers that were too unlucky last season. This helps us identify some starters later in your draft that could be in line for a better year, or 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitchers.

Using the same metrics in my analysis – ERA-xFIP, BABIP, LOB%, GB%, HR/FB (check the previous article for details) – I tabulated if each of 128 qualifying starting pitchers were unlucky in 2018. To determine what unlucky looks like, I came up with these guidelines based on a weighted average over the last 5 years:

  • ERA-xFIP higher than +0.5
  • BABIP higher than 0.305
  • LOB% lower than 71.4%
  • GB% lower than 42.8%
  • HR/FB higher than 14.1%

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

This analysis resulted in the following potentially undervalued starting pitchers for the 2019 fantasy baseball season, given their high un-luck score and ADP. Stats are from FanGraphs. ADP info is from FantasyPros as of February 18, 2019.

Chris Archer ADP SP #34 · Overall #132

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 201.1 4.02 3.41 0.61 .296 72.5% 47.8% 16.2%
2017 201.0 4.07 3.35 0.72 .325 71.3% 42.0% 14.1%
2018 148.1 4.31 3.59 0.72 .338 72.5% 44.6% 14.1%

Archer came in as the 14th unluckiest pitcher in this analysis. He has the 2nd highest BABIP and 21st highest ERA-xFIP. Although his 2018 GB% was higher than the league average 43.0%, his career GB% is 45.6%. This tells me that he gets batters to hit grounders more than usual.

You can make the argument that he has been unlucky for the past three seasons, not just 2018. One of these years he’s going to flip the script and give us the season we’ve all been waiting for. Could it be 2019? With a career 9.73 K/9 he will always be drafted. This might be the lowest price you’ll ever have to pay for him. As your 3rd starter in a 12-team league or 4th in a 10-team league. Why not take a chance on him?

Nick Pivetta ADP SP #45 · Overall #171

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2017 133.0 6.02 4.26 1.76 .332 67.1% 43.8% 18.2%
2018 164.0 4.77 3.42 1.35 .326 69.0% 46.7% 15.8%

Pivetta came in as the 6th unluckiest pitcher. He had the 4th highest ERA-xFIP, the 6th highest BABIP, the 20th highest HR/FB rate and the 24th lowest LOB%. The only “luck” he had going for him was his unusually high GB%.

True, we have a small sample size on Pivetta and the numbers are “unlucky” across the board (again, with the exception of GB%). He’s being drafted as a #4 starter in 12-team leagues (#5 in 10-team leagues). Why not roll the dice on him and his career 9.94 K/9?

Jon Gray ADP SP #53 · Overall #188

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 168.0 4.61 3.61 1.00 .308 66.4% 43.5% 12.8%
2017 110.1 3.67 3.45 0.22 .336 74.8% 48.9% 11.1%
2018 172.1 5.12 3.47 1.65 .322 67.9% 47.5% 18.1%

Gray checks in as the 3rd unluckiest pitcher last season. He had the 2nd highest ERA-xFIP, 6th highest HR/FB rate, 14th highest BABIP and 15th lowest LOB%. Like Pivetta, his GB% was very high last season.

He’s being drafted about a round later than Pivetta as a #5 starter in 12-team leagues (#6 in 10-team leagues). And like, Pivetta he has a desirable 9.53 K/9. Now, I’m not advising you draft both him and Pivetta… but, Gray could serve you well as a late round gamble. Gray has even admitted that he wasn’t healthy last season as is looking to rebound.

Dylan Bundy ADP SP #79 · Overall #290

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 109.2 4.02 4.61 -0.59 .299 79.7% 35.9% 13.3%
2017 169.2 4.24 4.77 -0.53 .273 73.7% 32.8% 11.5%
2018 171.2 5.45 4.28 1.17 .316 69.3% 34.0% 17.8%

Ah, we’ve come to our unluckiest pitcher in the 2018 season. Bundy struggled his way to be Top 27 unluckiest in all five metrics, and Top 8 in three (ERA-xFIP, GB% and HR/FB rate). While 2018 is arguably his worst year yet, he did post a career high 9.65 K/9. So there is that.

Bundy is not going to be a difference maker in 2019 but he’s a guy to take a late round flier in deeper leagues (15-teams or more) or keep your eyes on him early in the season. If it looks like he’s righting the ship, stream him occasionally.

* Additionally, the #2 & #4 unluckiest pitchers were Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, respectively. Bailey recently signed a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals and is currently being drafted as SP #223. Safe to ignore him in any draft. DeSclafani is being drafted as SP #125 and therefore mostly irrelevant except in deep, deep leagues.