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Edwin Encarnacion Will Outperform Jose Abreu

March 28, 2018 By avanfossan 1 Comment

Edwin Encarnacion

Cleveland Indians 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion is 35 but Andy VanFossan isn’t worried about a decline just yet, and he expects we should continue to see the “Edwing” plenty in 2018.

It’s getting closer to Opening Day 2018 and that means fantasy baseball drafts are in full swing (no pun intended). If you haven’t drafted yet, first base is probably something that you’ll look at starting in round two or three depending on the amount of teams in your league.

I’d like to throw a name out there that has been one of the better power hitting first baseman this decade – Edwin Encarnacion. It’s easy to get caught up with the desire to add Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo but, since 2012, Encarnacion has averaged the following:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
539 91 39 110 5 .268

Those are solid numbers for a guy who contributed to two high-powered offenses, the Toronto Blue Jays (2012-16) and Cleveland Indians (2017). He does his job when runners get on and he’s not afraid to take a walk if necessary.

One benefit of Encarnacion that sometimes gets overlooked is that he averages over 633 plate appearances. With today’s players seemingly always missing time, especially with the new 10-day DL that MLB implemented last year, you see a lot of players getting fewer at-bats over the course of the season. Primarily playing DH helps Encarnacion stay healthy and in the batting order everyday.

One player that is close in draft rankings to Encarnacion is Jose Abreu. Abreu’s consensus player ranking at FantasyPros is 30th overall, while Encarnacion’s is 41st. Their NFBC Average Draft Position is about a round and half apart, Abreu in the early 4th round and Encarnacion in the mid-5th. Six ranking spots may not seem like much but let’s look at one key difference – each player’s lineup.

Abreu is in a Chicago White Sox lineup that is loaded with potential, albeit still considered to be in a rebuilding phase. Abreu’s only protection is Avisail Garcia, projected .282 AVG, 16 HR and 71 RBI, hitting fourth, and Tim Anderson, projected .266, 15 HR and 48 RBI, batting second.

Encarnacion by contrast is in a loaded Cleveland lineup. Projected to clean up, Encarnacion has all types of protection from Jose Ramirez, hitting third, and Yonder Alonso, hitting fifth. Ramirez is coming off an MVP-type season and is projected .306, 20 HR and 75 RBI, while Alonso is projected .263, 15 HR and 54 RBI.

That’s not including leadoff hitter Francisco Lindor and number two hitter Jason Kipnis. Just from a lineup standpoint, Encarnacion should have more opportunities to drive in runs and in turn be driven in from a much deeper Cleveland lineup.

One concern that comes up with respect to Encarnacion is age. He turned 35 in January and, rightfully so, many fantasy players are concerned about a decline in production. The question is will it be a slow burn or will he fall off a cliff? The cliff can happen (see: Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira), but it is difficult to predict as every player is different. The lineup around him and not having to play the field much will help with his health and “freshness” throughout the year.

FanGraphs’ profile of Encarnacion indicates, “despite his advanced age, there are no real red flags in EE’s profile, aside from a strikeout rate that reached a career high.” I would rather take a chance he maintains the level of production we’ve come to expect, at a discounted draft price, until the metrics take more of a turn for us to expect otherwise.

Source AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2018 (Zeile) 516 88 35 100 2 .252 .357 .504
2018 (Steamer) 540 93 37 108 2 .259 .363 .513
2018 (ZiPS) 490 79 31 99 2 .263 .364 .506

Encarnacion is forecast to hit 35 homers and drive in over 100 runs per Steamer projections. His batting average in 2017 was the lowest its been since 2010, but if he can get that closer to his norm, then we are looking at a player who will add value to your squad relative to his cost.

Remember, last year Encarnacion started out slow adjusting to his new home in Cleveland but ended up the year posting numbers consistent with his career. Having a year under his belt with the Indians, he should get off to a good start and have another solid season. Don’t shy away from Edwin and don’t be surprised when you outproduces Jose Abreu.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Manuel Margot Has Trea Turner Potential

March 23, 2018 By Giles Clasen Leave a Comment

Trea Turner Lite? Giles Clasen thinks we’ve got exactly that in San Diego Padres CF Manuel Margot, which could be a huge bargain for a 12th round draft pick.

Fantasy baseball is all about predicting the future. But this isn’t a game for psychics. Our game is about using past numbers and thoughtful analysis to try and predict future success.

I rely on projections this time of year, such as Steamer and ZiPS, but these resources don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes we have to look beyond projections and use our gut a bit to find the next breakout player.

This year my gut is telling me Manuel Margot will be a Top 25 fantasy player. He has the potential to be Trea Turner Lite.

Manuel Margot

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2016 37 4 0 3 2 .243 .243 .405 $0
2017 487 53 13 39 17 .263 .313 .409 -$1
2018 (Steamer) 552 70 14 55 21 .259 .308 .402 $5
2018 (Zeile) 545 71 13 54 21 .266 .316 .413 $3
2018 (ZiPS) 539 65 12 51 20 .267 .315 .412 $0

I don’t say this flippantly. Trea Turner is one of the best players in fantasy and could top the ESPN player rater if he stays healthy. Justifiably, Turner is being drafted in the first round. So finding a player who can give you similar numbers in the twelfth round is extremely valuable.

When comparing Turner and Margot, I do recognize Turner hit the major leagues running, quite literally. In his first 73 games Turner hit 13 home runs, stole 33 bases and hit .342. Turner demanded our attention.

Turner followed up those gaudy 2016 numbers by swiping 46 bases in 95 games last year, while giving you double digit home runs and a solid average.

Trea Turner

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2015 40 5 1 1 2 .225 .295 .325 $0
2016 307 53 13 40 33 .342 .370 .567 $10
2017 412 75 11 45 46 .284 .338 .451 $14
2018 (Steamer) 567 94 16 65 49 .296 .345 .462 $28
2018 (Zeile) 559 94 16 65 49 .293 .342 .462 $32
2018 (ZiPS) 514 78 14 62 45 .280 .330 .444 $21

Margot is a year younger than Turner and has taken a bit more time to reach his potential. Positively speaking, Margot still has a lot of room to grow. He had a solid rookie season last year, but few would say that Margot’s numbers suggest he can hold a bat to Turner. However…

The first thing to note is Margot’s speed. The guy is fast. Statcast measured Margot as the 10th fastest guy in baseball, a hair faster than Turner. Sure, stealing a base requires more skill than just speed, but Margot, in theory, has the raw ability to take a base whenever he wants to.

Margot also plays for the San Diego Padres. This may not seem like a good thing, but trust me, it is. Manager Andy Green lets his players run, which is a rare thing these days.

In 2017 the Padres were in the top third of teams for attempted steals. That is valuable, because more and more teams are holding back their players. Margot should be given the opportunity to run if he wants to. All of this suggests Margot will have 30 or more steals in 2018. Last year only 6 players stole 30 bases.

I believe Margot has the ability to hit for power as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Margot hit 20 home runs this year. Margot showed a fair amount of improvement last year from the first half of the season to the second. His slugging went from .392 to .424 while slightly decreasing his strike out rate.

These numbers are slightly behind Turner’s, but if Margot can stretch his second half over the whole season, or continue to improve slightly, Margot could hit a few more over the fence than Turner in 2018.

In addition, Margot is hitting leadoff for an improved Padres team so his counting stats could also jump some from last year.

In 2017 we all watched Elvis Andrus go from being drafted outside the Top 200 to finishing a Top 20 payer. I believe Margot can accomplish the same thing.

At this time next year we won’t be talking about Margot as a regression candidate but as a player who finally arrived. Not quite Trea Turner, but not far off.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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