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Manuel Margot Has Trea Turner Potential

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Trea Turner Lite? Giles Clasen thinks we’ve got exactly that in San Diego Padres CF Manuel Margot, which could be a huge bargain for a 12th round draft pick.

Fantasy baseball is all about predicting the future. But this isn’t a game for psychics. Our game is about using past numbers and thoughtful analysis to try and predict future success.

I rely on projections this time of year, such as Steamer and ZiPS, but these resources don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes we have to look beyond projections and use our gut a bit to find the next breakout player.

This year my gut is telling me Manuel Margot will be a Top 25 fantasy player. He has the potential to be Trea Turner Lite.

Manuel Margot

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2016 37 4 0 3 2 .243 .243 .405 $0
2017 487 53 13 39 17 .263 .313 .409 -$1
2018 (Steamer) 552 70 14 55 21 .259 .308 .402 $5
2018 (Zeile) 545 71 13 54 21 .266 .316 .413 $3
2018 (ZiPS) 539 65 12 51 20 .267 .315 .412 $0

I don’t say this flippantly. Trea Turner is one of the best players in fantasy and could top the ESPN player rater if he stays healthy. Justifiably, Turner is being drafted in the first round. So finding a player who can give you similar numbers in the twelfth round is extremely valuable.

When comparing Turner and Margot, I do recognize Turner hit the major leagues running, quite literally. In his first 73 games Turner hit 13 home runs, stole 33 bases and hit .342. Turner demanded our attention.

Turner followed up those gaudy 2016 numbers by swiping 46 bases in 95 games last year, while giving you double digit home runs and a solid average.

Trea Turner

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2015 40 5 1 1 2 .225 .295 .325 $0
2016 307 53 13 40 33 .342 .370 .567 $10
2017 412 75 11 45 46 .284 .338 .451 $14
2018 (Steamer) 567 94 16 65 49 .296 .345 .462 $28
2018 (Zeile) 559 94 16 65 49 .293 .342 .462 $32
2018 (ZiPS) 514 78 14 62 45 .280 .330 .444 $21

Margot is a year younger than Turner and has taken a bit more time to reach his potential. Positively speaking, Margot still has a lot of room to grow. He had a solid rookie season last year, but few would say that Margot’s numbers suggest he can hold a bat to Turner. However…

The first thing to note is Margot’s speed. The guy is fast. Statcast measured Margot as the 10th fastest guy in baseball, a hair faster than Turner. Sure, stealing a base requires more skill than just speed, but Margot, in theory, has the raw ability to take a base whenever he wants to.

Margot also plays for the San Diego Padres. This may not seem like a good thing, but trust me, it is. Manager Andy Green lets his players run, which is a rare thing these days.

In 2017 the Padres were in the top third of teams for attempted steals. That is valuable, because more and more teams are holding back their players. Margot should be given the opportunity to run if he wants to. All of this suggests Margot will have 30 or more steals in 2018. Last year only 6 players stole 30 bases.

I believe Margot has the ability to hit for power as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Margot hit 20 home runs this year. Margot showed a fair amount of improvement last year from the first half of the season to the second. His slugging went from .392 to .424 while slightly decreasing his strike out rate.

These numbers are slightly behind Turner’s, but if Margot can stretch his second half over the whole season, or continue to improve slightly, Margot could hit a few more over the fence than Turner in 2018.

In addition, Margot is hitting leadoff for an improved Padres team so his counting stats could also jump some from last year.

In 2017 we all watched Elvis Andrus go from being drafted outside the Top 200 to finishing a Top 20 payer. I believe Margot can accomplish the same thing.

At this time next year we won’t be talking about Margot as a regression candidate but as a player who finally arrived. Not quite Trea Turner, but not far off.

Lucky and Unlucky Pitchers Due For A Correction

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Luck plays a part in a pitcher’s stat line. Chris identifies pitchers who were extra lucky last season (like Stephen Strasburg) or unlucky (Chris Archer), expecting that luck evens out, and to use to our advantage this year.

The only sure thing about luck is that it will change

Famed playwright and raconteur, Wilson Mizner

That quote sums up what I am aiming to apply to this fantasy baseball analysis. I’m looking for starting pitchers that have been either lucky or unlucky in 2017, and digging deeper to see if I can take advantage in 2018.

There are a lot of metrics I like to look at to get a feeling if a pitcher was lucky or unlucky in the previous season.

Earned Run Average minus Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (ERA-xFIP)
I like to think of xFIP as the pitcher’s “true” ERA, or his ERA based on the things he can control (strikeouts and walks), and removes the things he has little to no control over (defense and BABIP). Subtracting xFIP from the pitcher’s ERA gives us an idea of whether he is lucky or unlucky. If the pitcher’s ERA is higher than xFIP it tells me that the pitcher may be unlucky and is actually pitching better than his ERA indicates. The opposite can be said if his ERA is lower than his xFIP.

Outside of ERA-xFIP, I like to look at batted ball metrics. We know that pitchers do not have complete control over what happens to a baseball once it’s put into play, but they do have some control over the type of batted ball they allow (ground ball, line drive or fly ball).

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
A pitcher with a high BABIP is seeing more balls fall in for hits thus raising his ERA and WHIP. Things should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA and WHIP.

Left On Base Percentage (LOB%)
A LOB% lower than 72.1% indicates that he is allowing more runners to score than the league average thus increasing his ERA. Like BABIP, this should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA.

Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
Ground balls are the best for a pitcher. That is because they tend to go for hits more often than fly balls (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s ground ball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. I like to compare the pitcher’s GB% rate to the league average and his career average to get any idea if luck played a role.

Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/FB)
Pitchers generally do not have control over their HR/FB from year to year. The ballpark that a pitcher pitches in can have an effect on their HR/FB rate. A high HR/FB indicates that the pitcher is serving up more home runs than normal and thus their ERA is probably high. Over the course of the season their HR/FB should lower towards the league average and lower their ERA.

Here are the MLB totals for these metrics over the last three seasons, plus the 10-year average. These results are from starting pitchers only, no relievers.

Metric 2015 2016 2017 2008-2017
ERA-xFIP 0.10 0.10 0.08 0.09
BABIP 0.297 0.298 0.299 0.296
LOB% 72.3% 72.2% 72.1% 71.8%
GB% 45.2% 44.3% 44.0% 44.3%
HR/FB 11.6% 13.3% 14.2% 11.2%
Innings 28,223.1 27,412.2 26,787.1 28,352.1

Here are a few things that interest me from this data:

  • Total innings pitched by starters is going down each season.
  • All of these metrics are pretty consistent over the past three seasons, except HR/FB which appears to be steadily climbing.

For this exercise I went to FanGraphs and exported 2017 stats for starting pitchers only (134 pitchers). I then simply determined if each pitcher was lucky/normal/unlucky for each metric. To determine lucky vs. unlucky I came up with these guidelines. Anything in-between was considered “normal”.

Metric Lucky Unlucky
ERA-xFIP < -0.5 > 0.5
BABIP < .289 > .309
LOB% > 73.1% < 71.1%
GB% > 45.0% < 43.0%
HR/FB < 12.2% > 16.2%

For the players identified below, sabermetric stats are from FanGraphs.com, 2018 projections are from Steamer, and ADP is from FantasyPros on March 7, 2018.

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
ADP SP #33, Overall #119

Season GS IP W L K ERA WHIP 5X5
2017 22 118.2 7 4 132 4.25 1.30 $1
2018 (Projected) 24 137.0 10 7 145 3.61 1.28 $12
Season Innings ERA WHIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2015 125.2 3.22 1.19 -0.28 .288 75.0% 46.5% 9.3%
2016 81.0 3.22 1.54 0.16 .383 81.4% 57.3% 11.9%
2017 118.2 4.25 1.30 1.08 .330 67.6% 61.3% 12.7%

In 2017, McCullers was one of nine pitchers that had his xFIP a whole run lower than his ERA. Combine that with his high BABIP and low LOB%, and you could say that McCullers was quite unlucky in 2017.

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, he’s always been a groundball pitcher with a career 54.5% GB% (league average is 44.3%) and a 2.21 GB/FB (league average is 1.26). When he does let a ball get hit in the air it tends to stay in the park with a career HR/FB of 10.8% (league average is 13.0%). Those facts combined with the thought that his luck should turn indicates that he is someone you should not shy away from during your draft.

Chris Archer, TB
ADP SP #16, Overall #55

Season GS IP W L K ERA WHIP 5X5
2017 34 201.0 10 12 249 4.07 1.26 $9
2018 (Projected) 32 196.0 12 11 222 3.49 1.17 $26
Season Innings ERA WHIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2015 212.0 3.23 1.14 0.22 .295 73.1% 46.1% 10.4%
2016 201.1 4.02 1.24 0.61 .296 72.5% 47.8% 16.2%
2017 201.0 4.07 1.26 0.72 .325 71.3% 42.0% 14.1%

In 2017, Archer brought you a lot of K’s and D’oh!’s as he struggled through an up and down season. A high BABIP (27th highest out of the 134 pitchers in this study) is the metric that sticks out the most. But, if you look at the others they are all leaning towards “unlucky.”

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, his xFIP in the first half of 2017 was 3.42 with an ERA of 3.95, while in the second half his ERA was higher at 4.27 but his xFIP was lower at 3.23, with the telling stat being HR/FB. In the second half his HR/FB was 18.0% compared to 10.4% in the first half. Prior to 2016 his HR/FB ratio was consistently below 11.7% even in the minors. My gut tells me that Archer just took a little longer to “right the ship” in 2017 but eventually got there in the second half. I’m expecting his 2018 numbers to end up more like his 2015 numbers.

BUYER BEWARE

Gio Gonzalez, WAS
ADP SP #38, Overall #140

Season GS IP W L K ERA WHIP 5X5
2017 32 201.0 15 9 188 2.96 1.18 $20
2018 (Projected) 32 190.0 12 10 170 4.17 1.37 $4
Season Innings ERA WHIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2015 175.2 3.79 1.42 0.2 .341 72.1% 53.8% 5.9%
2016 177.1 4.57 1.34 0.77 .316 67.6% 47.6% 12.5%
2017 201.0 2.96 1.18 -1.28 .258 81.6% 45.8% 11.1%

In 2017, Gio had the 7th lowest* ERA-xFIP of the 134 starting pitchers in this analysis. I’m pretty sure that you don’t need to be a card carrying member of SABR to see that Gio was very lucky last season. Along with his ERA-xFIP he had the 12th lowest BABIP and the 6th highest LOB%.

Why should you avoid drafting him at his current ADP in 2018? While enjoying metrics on the very lucky spectrum his 45.8% GB% was not far from his 47.5% career GB% and his 11.1% HR/FB was higher than his 9.3% career HR/FB. This all adds up to a big red flag telling me to avoid drafting him this year.

* The other six are, in order of lowest ERA-xFIP, Andrew Cashner, Chase Anderson, Ervin Santana, Jose Urena, Parker Bridwell and Lance Lynn. I selected Gonzalez because he has the highest ADP of the seven. Safe to say you should avoid these other six just the same. As I was putting this article together I nearly went entirely in the Buyer Beware direction.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS
ADP SP #6, Overall #27

Season GS IP W L K ERA WHIP 5X5
2017 28 175.1 15 4 204 2.52 1.02 $29
2018 (Projected) 31 188.0 14 9 216 3.45 1.15 $28
Season Innings ERA WHIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2015 127.1 3.46 1.11 0.77 .311 70.7% 42.2% 12.4%
2016 147.2 3.60 1.10 0.4 .294 73.6% 39.5% 10.6%
2017 175.1 2.52 1.02 -0.75 .274 77.9% 46.8% 8.7%

In 2017, Strasburg turned in arguably his best season with career lows in ERA and WHIP in 28 starts (most since 2014). Anytime someone has a “career year” you should take pause and evaluate whether or not luck played a role.

Why should you not immediately pencil him in as the #5 SP on the board? Although, Strasburg had a career best ERA (2.52) he had his career worst xFIP (3.27). Think about that for a second. His 2017 .274 BABIP was a good bit lower than his career .295 BABIP. His 8.7% HR/FB in 2017 was the 6th lowest of the 134 starting pitchers and also below his 10.9% career HR/FB.

Put it all together and you see why I’m asking you to temper your expectations for him in 2018. He’s going to be one of the better starters in any format but I’m comfortable passing on him at the top of the 3rd round and selecting someone like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom or Luis Severino later in 3rd or even taking Archer in 4th.

Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy Now Available for 2018

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baseball field

Wow, has it really been a whole year since my last fantasy baseball post, “Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy 2017 Released”? Looks like it, and I am going to try to take some steps to improve in that respect, but first and foremost, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy is in fact ready for 2018.

As in prior years, Draft Buddy is FREE for you to download, use and update all the way through the start of the MLB season. New members need only register an account, check you want Draft Buddy and proceed to download. Existing members who had access to the 2017 version, that access should expire automatically, but you can renew by going to your member page, clicking Add/Renew Subscription, renewing (again – for free), and you are all set.

Draft Buddy once again includes fantasy baseball projections from Steamer (via Fangraphs) and Zeile (FantasyPros), plus ADP from National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Depth charts are updated by one of our own, member krby13. We should be able to add ZiPS projections plus ADP from FantasyPros once those are available. Thanks to all of these people and organizations for their contributions to Draft Buddy.

Last Player Picked is also updated for Steamer and Zeile projections as of today. There is a tentative update schedule on the Draft Buddy download page, I am still tinkering with our online cheatsheets to improve those, and go take the mock draft simulator for a spin. And away we go! Bring on fantasy baseball season!