I might have Derek Carr ranked a little high but it sure seems like he is getting drafted at a good value based on two of my recent drafts – QB12 and QB13.
I should have done this from Day 1 when I published my 2017 fantasy football rankings, but with us now in the final month before the season starts, better late than never. Here are news and notes to explain changes to my rankings, so you have a little more insight into what I am thinking ranking players.
Starting from the bottom up, I adjusted the quarterback rankings including adding Christian Hackenberg, since he will likely start for the New York Jets at some point this season. I shifted the tiers so Tier 8 is at Rank #33, the start of the projected backups, which is slightly odd since the one exception is Tom Savage at #33, still the projected Week 1 starter for the Houston Texans.
Tier 7 shifted up to include Mike Glennon after he struggled badly in the Chicago Bears preseason opener. Tier 6 now only includes Jared Goff and Brian Hoyer – two guys with decent job security, pretty low expectations but some upside given their offensive coordinators, plus Goff got a nice boost to his receivers with the Sammy Watkins trade. I haven’t moved Goff up the rankings but I would consider him as a late backup option in best-ball leagues.
Tier 5 captured Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles, two I would consider to have less job security than the players above I originally had them grouped with. Both may post good end of season numbers, but I still think it will be a bumpy ride along the way and I am not very interested in owning either of them this season.
Tier 4 moved up to split Marcus Mariota and Philip Rivers (Tier 3) from Dak Prescott and Eli Manning. That is mostly based on upside. I would pay a fair price for Mariota or Rivers if I waited that long for my starting QB. For Prescott and Manning I would expect to get them a little cheaper in the draft. Fair to say I would much rather have a Tier 3 and above starting QB than Tier 4 and below.
I moved Jameis Winston to #6 ahead of Cam Newton because Cam still isn’t making deep throws in practice, causing mild concern. Cam’s ADP is dropping as a result. Speaking of ADP, I still don’t see much caution by fantasy players drafting Andrew Luck. Go ahead and thank you! I like the guy but the risk is outweighing the reward given his current circumstances. His receivers as a group aren’t even that good until Donte Moncrief proves himself more.
Added the “target” icon to Russell Wilson as I am feeling more comfortable with him as an above average starter, and possibly more, at an acceptable draft cost. Derek Carr doesn’t move from my #4 spot for now but interesting to note I’ve drafted him in two straight drafts as QB13 (!) in the 10th round and QB12 at the top of the 11th round in another. Maybe I’ve got him a bit high since he offers up little to no rushing stats, but on a trending up team with two excellent receivers – assuming Amari Cooper is fully healthy and further progresses – I feel pretty confident in Carr.
Player notes were reviewed and many added for all significantly ranked players.
