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Initial 2016 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings and Projections

July 15, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Adrian Peterson

Where do we rank Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson? Spoiler: Tier 2, RB3. Check out the complete QB, RB, WR and TE redraft player projections and cheatsheet rankings.

Last week you got an appetizer with our preliminary ranking tiers for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end positions. Today is the release of our initial detailed player projections and rankings for the 2016 season.

Fantasy football season is underway. You know, the main drafting season entertaining the vast majority of fantasy footballers worldwide, not the 365-days on the calendar version a smaller hard core group of us are card carrying members of (here!). So given that, high time we published our initial projections and rankings for redraft leagues.

I am currently in Round 12 of the Scott Fish Bowl, better known as SFB#480 on Twitter. The draft is going okay, but I don’t feel it is stellar. Probably not enough mock drafting practice heading in resulting in numerous players I hoped to get a round later not falling, or just a really tough group of competitors.

At any rate, now I feel I have base rankings to start from, and between now and early September these rankings will be scrutinized and adjusted for training camp and preseason news, plus additional research and analysis of players, situations and simply new thoughts on players and player value. That is the way it goes with prognosticating fantasy football. These are fluid documents.

From browsing around the website, most everything is up to date now to get us fully into 2016 draft prep, but since the new design of the website implemented before baseball season there are still a number of features that could look better and be more user friendly. The plan is to get tackling those starting next week too.

Last but certainly not least, if you haven’t got Draft Buddy yet, then get on it. It is updated with projections from FF Today and ready to help you in all of your upcoming drafts. We will have a method of pulling our DraftBuddy.com projections into Draft Buddy soon.

Thanks for your time. Would love to hear some feedback on the rankings and projections. Feel free to comment below.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Cleveland Browns Team Report

July 6, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

QB Josh McCown

Despite turning the ball over 18 times in 11 starts last season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Browns committed to McCown as their starting quarterback, signing him to a three-year, $14-million contract that contained $6.3-million in guarantees. This despite the fact they selected Johnny Manziel in the 1st round of last year’s NFL Draft. At 35 years of age and a career backup, McCown takes over an offense that struggled mightily throwing the ball in 2014, but showed some potential rushing. Josh Gordon will miss all of 2015 due to a suspension and tight end Jordan Cameron signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason, leaving McCown’s main receiving options as fellow newcomers Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Robert Housler, plus returning veteran Andrew Hawkins. The Browns will compete for worst passing game in the NFL this season.

QB Johnny Manziel

Having flamed out spectacularly as a rookie in 2014, Manziel entered a rehab facility in the offseason in order to straighten out his personal life and hopefully his professional life as well. After struggling in the preseason, Manziel was relegated to a backup role behind Brian Boyer before starting a couple of late season games which basically proved the Browns were correct in keeping him nailed to the bench. While Manziel’s efforts to fix the issues that ail him should be commended, the expectation is that he will enter 2015 behind Josh McCown, although it would certainly rate as a shock if the Browns don’t give him a couple of starts at some point. Either way, the truth is that Manziel lacks the weapons necessary to make him a viable fantasy option. He is only roster worthy in dynasty formats, and he has done nothing at this point to prove that he has a bright future in the league.

RB Isaiah Crowell

Undrafted coming out of college due to off the field concerns, Crowell emerged as the Browns leading rusher during the second half of his rookie season, carrying the ball 148 times for 607 yards and eight touchdowns. While that was a reasonably impressive feat, the truth is that Crowell lacks upside as a rusher and is limited in the passing game due to his poor route running and lack of ability in pass protection. Lacking speed, Crowell relies on his size and is a punishing runner who has proven to be a solid short yardage runner. However, he has little ability to make tacklers miss and will enter training camp in a dogfight with fellow second year player Terrance West and rookie Duke Johnson for playing time. Given the sorry state of the Browns offense, Crowell rates as a low end RB3 provided he opens the season as the team’s starting running back.

RB Duke Johnson

Although the Browns seem to have found a pair of solid rookie running backs last season in Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West, they went to the well again at the position in this year’s draft, drafting Miami-Florida product Duke Johnson in the 3rd round. Johnson has some serious agility skills, but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Crowell and West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball. At 5’9” and 206 pounds, Johnson doesn’t possess feature back size and Browns coaches have indicated they envision him in a Giovani Bernard type role, which clearly limits his upside. However, both Crowell and West struggled with their consistency as rookies so there is a chance that Johnson emerges from the pack to earn 12-15 touches per game. The odds of that are low so we consider Johnson little more than a late round flyer in redraft formats and a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats.

RB Terrance West

Taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, West entered the season in a backup role to Ben Tate, took over as the team’s starter when Tate was released and finished the season splitting time with Isaiah Crowell. The 5’9”, 225 pound Towson State product was a bell cow type runner in college but his lack of consistency and refusal to simply take the yards that were there landed him in the doghouse at times as a rookie as his workload fluctuated widely from week to week. He will fight with Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson for touches this season and rates as the least intriguing option out of the trio of young running backs. Crowell is clearly a 1st and 2nd down downhill runner who looks to punish opposing defenders. Johnson possesses potentially game breaking abilities in the passing game and is an elusive when rushing the ball. The truth is that West is likely the team’s second best option behind Crowell in terms of rushing the ball and second best receiving option out of the backfield behind Johnson. However, he does possess some talent and given Crowell’s off the field issues, West holds some appeal in dynasty formats. In redraft formats, monitor West in the preseason to determine if he is worthy of a late round flyer.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Cut loose by the Kansas City Chiefs after stringing together three consecutive seasons where his production didn’t match his salary cap hit, Bowe was signed by the Browns in the offseason and joins a wide receiver depth chart that rates amongst the worst in the league. In Cleveland, Bowe will battle with the likes of Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins and Rob Housler for targets. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it is fair to ask whether, at 30 years of age (31 in September), Bowe has enough left in the tank to take advantage of the opportunity. Not helping matters is the Browns quarterback situation. Bowe failed to catch a single touchdown last year and has just 13 touchdowns in the last four seasons. While he has a decent change to emerge as a WR3 in PPR formats given his expected volume of targets, Bowe rates as a WR4-5 in standard scoring formats.

WR Brian Hartline

After posting back to back 1,000 yards seasons with the Dolphins in 2012 and 2013, Hartline crash landed last season, catching just 39 of his 63 targets for 474 yards and a pair of touchdowns as Miami made rookie Jarvis Landry a bigger part of their offense. Cut loose by the Dolphins, Hartline landed in Cleveland where he will enter training camp listed as a starter opposite Dwayne Bowe. At first glance, that sounds promising. However, we expect Hartline’s role and production with the Browns to mimic his 2014 season in Miami. Bowe figures to lead the team in targets with slot receiver Andrew Hawkins following close behind and tight end Rob Housler likely soaking up another 60-80 looks in the passing game. Hartline should only be rostered in the deepest leagues and even then we give him only a lukewarm endorsement.

WR Andrew Hawkins

In his first season in Cleveland, Hawkins emerged as Cleveland’s most productive receiver, posting career highs in receptions with 63 and yards with 824 while scoring two touchdowns. Unfortunately, it took him 112 targets to muster that production meaning his completion to target ratio was unimpressive for a slot receiver. With the Browns once again featuring one of the league’s least impressive depth charts at wide receiver, Hawkins should be line for plenty of targets once again in 2015. The issue is whether he will produce enough to have fantasy value. Last season is a pretty clear indictment of his fantasy prospects. Given his lack of touchdowns production, we rate Hawkins as nothing more than a late round flyer in standard scoring formats and a somewhat more intriguing option in PPR formats.

WR Vince Mayle

While several teams in the league were stocking their wide receiver depth charts based on the abundance of receiving talent found in the last two rookie drafts, the Browns waited until the 4th round of this year’s draft to select Vince Mayle. In Mayle, the Browns gain a possession receiver who lacks the deep speed to threaten defenses and that limits his upside. That being said, only declining veterans Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline stand in Mayle’s way of earning a spot in the starting lineup, given that Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel lack the size to be consistent weapons on the outside. Mayle rates as a low end dynasty prospect and waiver wire material in redraft formats.

WR Travis Benjamin

A 2012 4th round pick, Benjamin finally showed some playmaking ability in 2014, posting a career year with 37 receptions for 629 yards and a touchdown. While the average yards per reception of 17.0 was impressive, his inability to post more than one touchdown was noteworthy as was his less than impressive completion to target rate of 50.7%. It is his lack of efficiency as a diminutive player best used out of the slot that figures to relegate him to a minor role going forward. In truth, Benjamin benefited from circumstance in 2014 as injuries and suspensions ravaged the Browns receivers. We expect Benjamin to enter the season ranked 4th on the depth chart and of little value to fantasy owners.

WR Josh Gordon

Out for the year, folks. Worth a stash in dynasty leagues although there is little evidence to support the narrative that Gordon is getting his life back on track.

TE Robert Housler

After four non-descript seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Housler joins the Browns in 2015 where he has essentially been handed the starting position at tight end left open when Jordan Cameron signed with Miami in the offseason. Let’s consider that somewhat odd given that he caught nine of 17 targets for 129 yards in his final season in Arizona although it is also fair to note that he was miscast in Bruce Arians’ offense which doesn’t feature the tight end position. In Cleveland, Housler will compete for targets with the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins which gives him a chance for decent production in 2015. However, the quarterback situation and Housler’s inability to produce on a consistent basis four years into his career render him little more than a TE2, although his opportunity does make him a little more intriguing than some of the other options available at that point in fantasy drafts.

Also see: Cleveland Browns IDP Team Report | Baltimore Ravens Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pre-NFL Draft 2015 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings—Gronk On Top, And Its Not Close

April 30, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

There is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes at tight end and that is New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski.

There is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes at tight end and that is New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski.

The dynamic at tight end for fantasy football players has changed dramatically over the course of just one season.

While Jimmy Graham was the consensus top fantasy tight end last season, there were another three or four options that fantasy owners were salivating over before hitting another tier of players with solid upside potential.

However, in 2015, there is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes and that is Rob Gronkowski.

You need to make a bit of a trek down the hill before you reach the next tier of four players, none of whom has a chance to supplant Gronk as the number one option provided he remains injury free in 2015.

After that, you might as well ignore the position since there is little to differentiate the third tier of fantasy tight ends. This is a group riddled with some combination of age, injury or other issues that will cause varying levels of concern for fantasy owners.

Here are our initial 2015 fantasy football tight end rankings for redraft leagues, before the NFL Draft.

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

Even if Jimmy Graham remained on the New Orleans Saints, it still would have been Gronk as the top ranked fantasy tight end. Now that Graham is a Seattle Seahawk, the gap between the two widened considerably. Sure, there is injury risk here but the upside is too much to ignore.

2. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

While Graham’s talent is undeniable, his inability to produce when nicked up coupled with his move to one of the league’s top rushing teams sees his fantasy value tumble in 2015. While he still should find the end zone plenty, it seems unlikely that he will top 1,000 receiving yards.

3. Travis Kelce, Chiefs

Despite their struggles at wide receiver, Kelce was an underutilized option in the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack in 2014, catching 67 of his 87 targets (a completion percentage of 77%) for 862 yards and five touchdowns. Even with Jeremy Maclin now in Kansas City, Kelce is still a sure fire bet for over 100 targets this season.

4. Greg Olsen, Panthers

Olsen posted career highs across the board in 2014 with 84 receptions for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. While the Panthers will look to fill the hole at wide receiver opposite Kelvin Benjamin, we still see Olsen as a solid, low risk option in 2015.

5. Martellus Bennett, Bears

Bennett reached career highs in all major categories last season with 90 receptions for 926 yards and six touchdowns on 128 receptions. Brandon Marshall left town. If Bennett remains healthy, he will be a top five tight end.

6. Julius Thomas, Jaguars

Incredible stat – Thomas hauled in 12 touchdowns on just 62 targets last season. Let’s go out on a limb and predict 90 targets for him this season in his new home in Jacksonville (his career high is 89). How many fantasy points can we give him? Does a line of 65 receptions for 780 yards and five touchdowns seem fair? Don’t reach for Julius.

7. Zach Ertz, Eagles

This is where things get dicey. As in, at this point in my fantasy auction, I’m waiting on the tight end position. Since Ertz has upside and the Philadelphia Eagles have lost their leading receiver in each of the last two seasons, he gets the nod as the top pick amongst the also-rans at tight end.

8. Jordan Cameron, Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins dumped receivers Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, leaving them with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and a quite possibly washed up Greg Jennings. If Cameron can stay healthy (a major if), he should put up solid numbers in his first year in Miami.

9. Antonio Gates, Chargers

After hitting pay dirt nine times in his first eight games last season, Gates went five games without scoring while averaging 38.2 yards per game in those contests. Gates will turn 35 in June and the San Diego Chargers are planning to reduce his snap count. Gates is a low ceiling option in 2015.

10. Dwayne Allen, Colts

Allen produced eight touchdowns in 12 games on just 50 targets last season and the Indianapolis Colts did little to address their size issue at wide receiver. With Allen their top receiving option in the red zone in an offense that rates amongst the league best, he should reach TE1 status albeit almost certainly with continued consistency issues.

11. Jason Witten, Cowboys

Witten is another low ceiling option but with Terrence Williams having failed to make major strides last season, Witten should come close to another 90 targets this season as Tony Romo’s security blanket. It’s worth noting that Witten hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2003.

12. Delanie Walker, Titans

Healthy for 15 games, Walker posted career highs in receptions with 63 and yards with 890 while finding the end zone four times. However, he was a boom or bust fantasy option, tallying 50.1 of his 113.0 fantasy points in just three games. Expect another solid season from Walker given the dire state of the Tennessee Titans’s depth chart at wide receiver.

13. Jordan Reed, Redskins

Dude is talented but he can’t stay healthy and we have no idea what to expect out of the Washington Redskins offense in 2015. Reed looks better in the wrapper than he does out of it.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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