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Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Screen Shot 2015-08-05 at 10.44.08 AMHere is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last week impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. The big news is of course Arian Foster’s injury. I drafted him a week ago at the 12 spot in the $350 entry Footballguys Players Championship, so that really sucks!

Otherwise there are a number of key or interesting notes out of training camps prior to the first preseason games, many of which will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Trent Richardson, Raiders

Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR Breshad Perriman is currently limited with a bruised knee. The more time he misses, the less likely he can make an immediate impact, although a couple rookies (Beckham, Bryant) did pretty well last season after sitting the first third of the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills QB situation is a muddled mess of low expectations regardless of who wins the starting job, but we need to know and the tea leaves suggest it is Matt Cassel right now based on experience.

Carolina Panthers

WR Stephen Hill was placed on IR, ending his comeback.

Chicago Bears

Kevin White is sidelined with a shin injury suffered during OTAs. He’s on the PUP (preseason version, no immediate panic necessary), but it isn’t looking good for him to be in the starting lineup anytime soon at this point. Eddie Royal gets a boost.

Cleveland Browns

RB Terrance West has a calf injury, while rookie Duke Johnson has a hamstring injury. The only one not complaining and perhaps due a bump up our rankings (?) is Isaiah Crowell.

Dallas Cowboys

A lot can change rather quickly, but the highly coveted starting RB job appears to be Joseph Randle’s to lose at this point. Darren McFadden is already dinged up.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell is rehabbing from an Achilles’ and knee injury with no set timetable to return. This appears to be a little more serious than early drafts would indicate, as news of his health was pretty quiet. Heck, didn’t we see a “1,200 yard” prediction out of Bell just a few weeks ago? Rookie Ameer Abdullah has an opportunity for a larger role in the backfield and represents a good target for a later drafted RB.

Houston Texans

The news bigger than the sum of the rest of this entire update, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury. It is serious, requiring surgery which will put him on IR-designated to return (after Week 10), as reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Behind him we prefer sophomore Alfred Blue, but they also have Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and are evaluating free agents including Pierre Thomas. Take a shot on Blue, but it could easily be a mess. Even if Foster can return, 10 weeks is a long time to hold a player on your roster (unless you have an open IR spot), so I wouldn’t even consider adding him in a draft unless the pick is really low.

No clarity on who has a leg up in this QB battle, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Hurns is ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, starting opposite Allen Robinson.

New York Giants

The team added WR James Jones, which is a bit curious since reports on Victor Cruz’ recovery are positive. Still, Jones might be worth an add in a 30-roster spot best-ball league.

New York Jets

Early indications are Geno Smith appears to be ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job.

Another rookie WR with an injury, this time Devin Smith has a punctured lung (ouch) and will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oakland Raiders

RB Trent Richardson is in danger of being released by the team. My guess is you are already way ahead of that potential transaction with respect to your fantasy team. Michael Dyer is a name to keep tabs on from the Raiders backfield.

A player intriguing me lately with positive reports out of camp and drastically lower ADP than his rookie teammate is Michael Crabtree.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Sam Bradford is cleared for 11-on-11 drills with no restrictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Martavis Bryant is out 7-10 days for now with an elbow infection. His ADP has risen steadily in recent weeks, likely to the point of him being overvalued. This should slow that down for now.

Further putting the brakes on the Bryant hype train, QB Ben Roethlisberger stated recently Markus Wheaton will start in 2-WR sets opposite Antonio Brown. The fantasy pecking order could still easily be Brown, Bryant, Wheaton, but it gives one pause from being too bullish on Bryant. And maybe Wheaton is worth a late flier here or there.

San Diego Chargers

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is apparently struggling with pass protection, which is no surprise from a rookie and will not help keep him on the field. Happy to have him in dynasty leagues but not that excited about using a 3rd round draft pick in redraft leagues to own him. More can go wrong than right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team named Doug Martin their starting tailback. This is what we expected to materialize from training camp. Hopefully it sticks, and the announcement will push his ADP up for those who have been asleep at the wheel up until now. I’ve been getting him as my third RB in drafts, most recently at the end of the 6th round in this best-ball league.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pre-Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

July 21, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Here is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last two weeks potentially impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. It’s been pretty quiet on the news front heading into the start of training camps later this week, but a few of these items will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
WR Reggie Wayne
TE Jermaine Gresham

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
WR Josh Morgan, Saints
WR Justin Hunter, Titans
TE Andrew Quarless, Packers

Arizona Cardinals

We have Michael Floyd ranked fairly high at wide receiver, wondering if he is a “year too early” candidate from high expectations heading into last season. Now it seems the fantasy community is very bullish about John Brown, who admittedly is receiving positive reports from working out with QB Carson Palmer. This is a situation to monitor closely through training camp.

Atlanta Falcons

WR Leonard Hankerson could assume the third wideout spot ahead of rookie Justin Hardy, who could be eased into action. Hankerson is reunited with Kyle Shanahan from their days together with the Washington Redskins.

Baltimore Ravens

If the Ravens don’t add a veteran receiver, then keep an eye on the progress of rookie Breshad Perriman vs. Marlon Brown to be the starter opposite Steve Smith.

Buffalo Bills

Praise for QB Tyrod Taylor out of Bills camp, and given the questionable competition in front of him, these reports have some merit. What the heck, I just added Taylor in a deep dynasty league, dropping Texans QB prospect Tom Savage.

TE MarQueis Gray is excited about the offense for the tight ends. Who? Exactly, but if what Gray is selling has some substance, then it is a good sign for the fantasy prospects of teammate Charles Clay.

Chicago Bears

The Bears are apparently excited about rookie RB Jeremy Langford due to his speed and all-around ability. Expect a heavy workload for Matt Forte, but it’s always good to know a team’s main RB backup if the starter goes down. Langford could be it for the Bears ahead of Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers.

Cleveland Browns

Some confirmation Isaiah Crowell is expected to be the starter, but reports are the Browns will ride the “hot hand” and Duke Johnson should be used as the primary third down receiving back.

Per Browns beat writer Nathan Zegura, WR Taylor Gabriel will push to be a starter in this offense, ahead of Brian Hartline, with Andrew Hawkins the third down and slot receiver.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Darren McFadden is expected to open training camp as the backup behind anticipated starter Joseph Randle. It should be a good training camp battle to determine the depth chart come Week 1.

WR Terrance Williams received positive reviews from his position coach, and looks like a good value at his current ADP. Second year player Devin Street is another name to keep in mind amongst Cowboys receivers. He worked with the starters in OTAs in place of an absent Dez Bryant.

Denver Broncos

Report: Cody Latimer is the third wide receiver. Fact: We already knew that.

Detroit Lions

The battle is on for … backup QB! Kellen Moore will challenge Dan Orlovsky for the right to back up starter Matthew Stafford.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Positive reports that RB T.J. Yeldon is picking up the offense quickly. The team appears keen to make him the lead back.

Miami Dolphins

WR DeVante Parker is on track for the active roster Week 1, per a Miami Herald report. He is recovering from foot surgery and appears likely to miss at least some of training camp and the preseason.

Minnesota Vikings

WR Jarius Wright is expected to play the slot in 3-WR sets, further reducing the value of Cordarelle Patterson.

New Orleans Saints

Free agent TE Jermaine Gresham was offered a contract, indicating low confidence in current options Josh Hill or Ben Watson. Gresham is also expected to visit the Arizona Cardinals.

New York Giants

The Giants indicate that training camp will provide clarity sorting out the roles for their backfield trio of Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Andre Williams.

Seattle Seahawks

There are positive vibes out of Seattle for rookie WR Tyler Lockett. Given the sketchy depth chart, it would be nice if someone established themselves as a reliable fantasy option at wide receiver on this team.

St. Louis Rams

WR Brian Quick is recovering from a pretty serious shoulder injury. He isn’t a lock to participate at the start of training camp, the ESPN report instead indicating Quick “could” be ready for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie Kenny Bell is competing with Louis Murphy for the starting slot receiver spot in training camp.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a name with some building optimism in the fantasy community. Positive reports from OTAs, but there are already a bunch of mouths to feed in this offense.

Tennessee Titans

WR Justin Hunter was arrested July 20 for assault. As a result we’ve added him to the “potential roster cut” list at the top of this post.

Washington Redskins

TE Niles Paul is expected to start if (when?) Jordan Reed struggles with injuries again this year.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Player Rankings Second Opinion

July 13, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Even matching his fantasy quarterback ranking from last season at QB16 is too high for San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick, according to Tony's second opinion of our rankings.

Even matching his fantasy quarterback ranking from last season at QB16 is too high for San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick, according to Tony’s second opinion of our rankings.

July means summer, barbeques, and enjoying time outside. It also means that NFL training camps start at the end of the month!

With the NFL season right around the corner, fantasy football drafts are already underway. Owners are barreling into an enormous amounts of fantasy football information, trying to make sure they are fully prepared for their draft and the upcoming season.

The most hotly debated topic amongst fantasy football players every year is, of course, player rankings. Fantasy football is a prediction game, and if we all thought the same about the players, it would be a pretty boring game!

Draft Buddy recently rolled out their fantasy football player rankings, prepared by Dave Stringer and Mike MacGregor, for the 2015 NFL season. My job is to analyze those rankings and identify some players that are I feel are currently ranked too high or too low by Dave and Mike.

Got an opinion? Great! Let us know what side of these player rankings you fall on in the comments below, or single out some other players whose rankings you strongly disagree with, and why.

Ranked Too High

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

Current Rank: QB6

Tannehill has been jumping up fantasy draft boards the last few weeks. He has the offensive weapons around him, but they are not considered studs like other players on teams with quarterbacks projected below Tannehill. I’d rather have Cam Newton, who has a more proven tight end in Greg Olsen and wide receiver in Kelvin Benjamin, or Matt Ryan who has Julio Jones and Roddy White, or Russell Wilson who is a threat with his legs and has Jimmy Graham. Tannehill finished 2014 as QB10, but all those quarterbacks mentioned earlier finished above Tannehill and should do so again in 2015.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Current Rank: QB16

The San Francisco 49ers are going through a major overhaul in 2015. They lost Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, lost veteran starting running back Frank Gore, and their defense has taken a massive hit due to retirements and team changes. The 49ers are going to lean on Kaepernick, who frankly just is not a very good quarterback. In 2014 Kaep finished as QB16. Veteran receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith will try to help Kaepernick, but there aren’t many other threats on this team. I’d rather have Jay Cutler who has Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte, or Teddy Bridgewater who has Adrian Peterson back and young fast receivers.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Current Rank: RB16

After an underwhelming rookie season, Hyde is in line to become the main workhorse for the San Francisco 49ers. The problem is, I do not think his talent and opportunity match the hype he is receiving. As I stated above with Kaepernick, the 49ers do not have any outstanding threats on offense, so defenses will load the box to stop the run and force Kaepernick to throw to his veteran receivers. Also, the 49ers brought in Reggie Bush to be the main pass catching back, which limits Hyde’s workload. Finally, the 49ers drafted a rookie, Mike Davis, who is capable to step in if Hyde struggles, putting Hyde on a short leash. I feel the bullish predictions attributed to Hyde are a bit overboard. I prefer Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, rookie Melvin Gordon and Giovani Bernard, all ranked a tier below, over Hyde.

LeGarrette Blount, Patriots

Current Rank: RB25

Blount changed teams part of the way through the 2014 season and joined the New England Patriots. He was very productive when given the ball, however, with Bill Belichick calling the shots, the running back position will always be a random outcome for the running backs. With Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, Travaris Cadet, and James White all threatening to steal carries, Blount may have to split repetitions more than he’d like. I have a hard time putting so much faith into a New England running back. I prefer Chris Ivory, rookie T.J. Yeldon or Joseph Randle all above Blount.

Golden Tate, Lions

Current Rank: WR25

In 2014, Golden Tate found himself playing opposite the best wide receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson. Or at least, that was the plan going into last season. Through the first 9 games, Calvin Johnson was hobbled and was either limited during play or missed some games. During those games, Tate had 66 catches on 93 targets, 909 yards and three TDs. During the last 7 games when Johnson was healthy, Tate had 33 catches on 51 targets, 422 yards, and one TD. Johnson has had a full offseason to become healthy. Tate’s numbers should not be as bad as the second half of 2014, but will not be near his numbers during the first half of 2014. Proceed with caution when drafting Tate this year. I prefer Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins over Tate.

[Editor’s note: We actually adjusted Tate’s earlier ranking down to 25th after Tony wrote this article, and now he is ranked below each of the receivers Tony mentions here, but instead of striking this section I decided to leave it and give credit where credit is due – we did have him too high.]

Donte Moncrief, Colts

Current Rank: WR60

When the Indianapolis Colts drafted rookie wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the 2015 NFL Draft, Donte Moncrief’s value took a massive hit. I feel Dorsett will overtake Moncrief on the depth chart and be the Colts’ third wide receiver behind TY Hilton and Andre Johnson. It will be quite the battle during training camp between the two. Dorsett has better physical abilities and is a smaller receiver, which could work well in the slot. Regardless of who wins the camp battle, I see a 50/50 time split between the two receivers which hurts both their stats tremendously. I prefer Eddie Royal, Steve Johnson and Victor Cruz over Moncrief.

Martellus Bennett, Bears

Current Rank: TE5

Bennett was a big, popular target for quarterback Jay Cutler in 2014, so much that he vaulted himself into the top five TE last season. However, this offseason, Bennett has been pushing for a new contract from the Chicago Bears, so much that he kept himself out of voluntary OTAs. He did report to the mini camp, but there was still a push for a contract. The Bears have roughly eight tight ends on the team currently, which one might infer they are preparing for a holdout or time without Bennett since they don’t seem likely to offer him a new contract. If Bennett does hold out or is traded to a new team that will pay him, Bennett’s stats might take a hit. It’s worth monitoring in the next few weeks prior to drafts, but Bennett is very risky ranked so high for tight ends currently. I prefer Julius Thomas over Bennett.

Ranked Too Low

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Current Rank: QB20

Bridgewater was arguably the best rookie quarterback in 2014. He will take another big step forward in 2015. With elite running back Adrian Peterson back, some pressure is taken off of Bridgewater, allowing him to focus on the receivers that now have some lighter coverage due to Peterson demanding an 8-man box. Bridgewater could end up as a legit QB1 this season finding himself among the Top 12 quarterbacks in the league. I prefer Bridgewater over Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Giants

Current Rank: QB11

Manning must have loved rookie Odell Beckham Jr. finally making his way onto the field because Beckham provided a big, fast, physical receiving option for Manning that was lost when Victor Cruz went out with season ending tendon tear in his knee. With the addition of Shane Vereen at running back and Cruz likely returning from injury, Manning will be passing a lot more in 2015. Manning finished as QB8 in 2014 and should find himself right there again in 2015. With an improved defense, watch out for the Giants to make a deep run this year. I prefer Manning over Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady, even if Brady’s suspension is cut in half.

Chris Ivory, Jets

Current Rank: RB27

Ivory is a volume running back meaning he receives the majority of the teams rushing attempts. Even with receiving only 56% of the share of the rush attempts last season, Ivory was able to finish as the RB19. Ivory remains the best running back on the New York Jets, even with the additions of Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. With Brandon Marshall now in town to help spread the defense out, Ivory should find more holes in defenses. I prefer Ivory over Isaiah Crowell and LeGarrette Blount.

Ryan Mathews, Eagles

Current Rank: RB42

After staying healthy for all 16 games in 2013, Mathews suffered an MCL sprain in Week 2 in 2014. He pushed his way through the injury to only suffer an ankle injury late in the season. A total of 6 games was not in the plan for Mathews in 2014, who is a very good runner when healthy. He now is backup to the best running back in 2014, DeMarco Murray, both of which have relocated to the Philadelphia Eagles. With Murray having logged a lot of miles in 2014, I expect head coach Chip Kelly to lean heavily on the run and have a balanced attack of Murray and Mathews. If I had to guess, I see a 65/35 workload split, which is more than what Mathews is projected now. The Eagles had the best graded offensive line blocking in 2014, even above the phenomenal Dallas Cowboys, who were second ranked. If Mathews can stay healthy, he could a great flex/RB2 option for fantasy leagues. I prefer Mathews over Bishop Sankey, Charles Sims and Ameer Abdullah.

Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Current Rank: WR29

I am all-in on Bryant this year. He only played 10 games in 2014 but finished with 26 receptions for 549 yards for an average of 21.1 yards per reception, which was the highest for a wide receiver scoring over 100 fantasy points for the season. With QB Ben Roethlisberger still able to sling the ball and playing opposite the most consistent wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, Bryant should excel into legit WR2 numbers this season. Also, rumor has it that Bryant trained in MMA this offseason to help improve his handwork for maneuvering around defenders. Bryant is taking his career seriously and as a fantasy player, I want all the Bryant shares I can get. I prefer Bryant over Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin.

Devin Funchess, Panthers

Current Rank: WR66

In my opinion, Funchess is the most underrated player of the 2015 rookie wide receivers, strongly based on the team/environment he was drafted to. He is now teammates with stud quarterback Cam Newton, sophomore receiver Kelvin Benjamin and veteran tight end Greg Olsen. Funchess provides the Panthers with another tall (6’5”) option at wide receiver opposite Benjamin. If Funchess can grasp this offense quickly (and I believe he can), he has a chance to become Newton’s favorite red zone target. I prefer Funchess over a host of players, including Malcom Floyd, Torrey Smith and Terrance Williams.

Mychal Rivera, Raiders

Current Rank: TE32

The Oakland Raiders have made all the right moves the past two years to help push their team in the right direction. They have sophomore quarterback Derek Carr who showed promise in 2014 and the best rookie wide receiver in Amari Cooper. They also have a young bruising running back Latavius Murray, but also brought in Roy Helu (sleeper alert) to help with the passing downs. Tight end Rivera received 100 targets in 2014, which was the seventh most among tight ends where he finished as a modest TE17. He should continue to be a target hog in Oakland as rookie tight end Clive Walford learns the NFL game. Rookie tight ends rarely pan out their first year. Assuming he improves his catching abilities, Rivera could be a draft day sleeper for a team waiting on tight ends. I prefer Rivera over Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert and Richard Rodgers.

More from Tony: Super-Flex with IDP Dynasty Draft Recap

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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