Bye 11 · Age 21.6 · ADP 1.08 · PPG -
Why not Bijan at #1? Okay, there are certainly valid reasons to not overvalue rookies as it appears I am doing here. However, I look at his immediate competition for this spot, and weighing the risk-reward he pops at #1 for me. Age, probability of injury, and system. On balance these all seem to favor Bijan over CMC, Ekeler, Saquon, and Taylor. Mild concerns for Desmond Ridder, and a higher percentage of carries to Tyler Allgeier than we would like out of respect for the yeoman work he did last season.
Bye 9 · Age 27.3 · ADP 1.03 · PPG 18.1
Great player, great system, but I have a hard time looking past 10 missed games in 2021, and 9 missed games in 2020. These weren't from two different injuries, but five. Plus, we don't even know who his QB is going to be this season given the uncertain recovery of Brock Purdy, or uncertain recovery and readiness of Trey Lance, or ... Sam Darnold? Look long and hard at adding a stud WR ahead of assuming the risk of CMC.
Bye 5 · Age 28.3 · ADP 1.05 · PPG 19.1
Ekeler still has little to no competition for his job that led to 107 receptions a season ago. Plus he scored 18 TD last year, and 20 TD in 2021. I might be inclined to put him as my RB1. Except, he is the oldest player in this tier and a little jacked up physically which runs a greater risk of a soft tissue injury. There is no decent handcuff for Ekeler.
Bye 13 · Age 26.6 · ADP 2.01 · PPG 15.8
Barkley is disgruntled. Barkley wants a new contract. We expect Barkley to play this season, even if necessary on the franchise tag. It is definitely a raw deal being a workhorse RB in the NFL this era - they get no respect. In terms of talent, opportunity, and assuming there is no holdout, I expect the Giants offense to improve from last season's already impressive jump into fantasy relevance thanks to HC Brian Daboll. Most of the improvement needs to come from Daniel Jones, but an improved Jones keeps defenses more off balance, allowing Saquon to do his thing.
Bye 5 · Age 27.7 · ADP 2.02 · PPG 15.8
Best pure runner in the NFL? That is what the experts say, but it doesn't equate to top fantasy points because of the lack of catches. He hit 27 last year, second highest of his five-year career. Kareem Hunt is gone but we can't expect an increase in workload for Chubb after 302 carries in 2022. His previous high, 298 in 2019, led to missed games in 2020. Always some risk with a high touch back. Counterpoint: Chubb is in his prime. A solid, consistent contributor to anchor your backfield after starting stud WR in the first round.
Bye 7 · Age 26.3 · ADP 2.04 · PPG 14.3
Pollard was tough to rank weekly last season due to his relatively low touches for a top RB. He played only 49% of snaps on the season, but 5.2 a carry plus 12 TD pushed him to RB9 in PPG. Zeke was RB23 PPG by the way, and is not in the building as of writing this. Can Pollard handle a bigger workload? It looks like he is going to have to given the Cowboys depth chart. Have some faith in Pollard to live up to these expectations, but don't reach for him.
Bye 7 · Age 29.7 · ADP 2.09 · PPG 18.0
Love the player. Henry is not just another big RB that wears down a defense. He's on another level. However, time and workload does take a toll even on the very best. Plus, this team has serious question marks. I feel like they will always be competitive under head coach Mike Vrabel, but the Titans are fading towards a rebuild. They lost 7 straight to end the 2022 season, which is a terrible game script for Henry.
Bye 6 · Age 25.5 · ADP 3.09 · PPG 12.2
Not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling about offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Steelers Nation has their pitchforks at the ready if this offense stumbles out of the gate. Even though the OL was a mess and a rookie QB played in 13 games (12 starts), we expected more last year with the skill players at Canada's disposal. Harris specifically dealt with serious foot issues last season, limiting his mobility. He should be in line for similar high touches, and he can catch. He's just more of a plodder than a dynamic play maker. RB19 in PPG last year is not good, but follow the volume and I think Najee will show the foot played a bigger limiting factor last year than people realize. This is a fair price.
Bye 13 · Age 25.6 · ADP 3.01 · PPG 17.9
It was a prove-it year last year for Jacobs. And he proved it, playing all 17 games for the first time in his career. He hit a gaudy 340 rushing attempts plus chipped in 53 catches. Can he do it again? This is a situation that can go south quickly. Jacobs is a possible holdout if he doesn't sign the franchise tag. New QB and one with uncertain health. The head coach is unlikable. So, I'm skeptical to re-up on Jacobs and will likely be looking at WR around this draft spot instead.
Bye 11 · Age 25.5 · ADP 3.08 · PPG 12.7
Second season Rhamondre was pretty good. Played 66% of snaps, finished RB15 in PPG. The snaps were up because Damien Harris was in and out of the lineup. Harris is gone now, and it is an unimpressive depth chart behind Stevenson. Although this goes against the typical Patriot Way, things are lining up for Stevenson to be a workhorse. Plus, new OC has to be an improvement over last season's train wreck. Pull the trigger on Rhamondre.
Bye 7 · Age 27.1 · ADP 4.03 · PPG 15.0
Mixon sure doesn't have the explosiveness any more that we look for in a top back, but he's locked into a high volume role in a top offense. A safe and solid choice. Not sure there is a handcuff now Samaje Perine is gone. I would lean to the rookie Chase Brown.
Bye 6 · Age 28.8 · ADP 4.09 · PPG 13.1
I'm not a big Aaron Jones supporter (for fantasy) but I did hear a Packers beat reporter recently indicate the main issue with Jordan Love is he is hesitant to push the ball down field. Similarly, a respected fantasy guy suggested we could see a lot of check downs from Love. Could this spell an exorbitant number of catches for Jones? Possible undervalued PPR asset.
Bye 13 · Age 24.8 · ADP 5.11 · PPG 9.7
I mentioned in my Lamar Jackson blurb I'm getting very bullish on LJax. Really, he makes it go but if and when that happens, a lot of Ravens skill players benefit for fantasy. Dobbins is going to be a big beneficiary of an improved offense and defenses focused on Lamar. The team, rightfully so, held Dobbins back last year coming off the knee injury. We could see the fire in Dobbins when he got publicly upset for not getting the ball enough. Expect a much bigger share this year with Gus Edwards still questionable in his recovery. At over 5.5 yards per carry in each of his two seasons, Dobbins talent is not in question. Given this ranking, obviously I expect him to exceed his ADP of RB18.
Bye 9 · Age 23.3 · ADP 5.10 · PPG 9.0
Still a little uneasy about the health status of Williams, but it's been positive news for some time now. He should excel in Sean Payton's system as many as Saints RB has done in the past. Perine is not a huge threat to touches for a healthy Williams. JW definitely trending up as of mid-August.
Bye 9 · Age 21.5 · ADP 3.06 · PPG -
People are getting very excited about Jahmyr Gibbs and I've seen him pushed into the Top 10 in some RB rankings. Definitely trending up. This offense thought they had \"their Alvin Kamara\" in D'Andre Swift. Maybe they have him now. But it will still be a transition period to get there. Old school coach Dan Campbell will lean on veteran David Montgomery who clearly can handle a big load and be successful behind this offensive line. The Gibbs to Montgomery gap shouldn't be too wide.
Bye 10 · Age 24.3 · ADP 6.11 · PPG 9.3
This Rams team still doesn't look very good overall because the depth is terrible. That's what you get when you mortgage your top drafts picks for years. Akers could do well, he's got a nice volume opportunity, and the system works. Every RB from here on down has some warts of some sort.
Bye 11 · Age 28.1 · ADP 7.09 · PPG 12.7
Kamara receives only a 3 game suspension, when the fantasy community expected something in the 5-8 range. That's good. His performance last year, however, was not. With his stellar track record, I'm willing to give some benefit of the doubt it was an off year. Derek Carr should help, while plodding Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller (currently injured with a knee sprain) shouldn't be too much concern to cut into Kamara's role.
Bye 9 · Age 24.6 · ADP 3.12 · PPG 11.3
I don't know what to think about Etienne really other than to believe he's been overvalued since he got to the NFL. His first season was a write-off. He had some big games last year on the much improved Jags, with three Top 6 finishes, but otherwise a 12th, 15th, and worse from there. Doesn't catch the ball enough. Rookie Tank Bigsby and D'Ernest Johnson look to turn the Jags running game into more of a committee. Good offense but Etienne is tough-ish to rely on.
Bye 13 · Age 23.9 · ADP 5.12 · PPG 6.1
I had Cook low ranked in my early rankings, and now wonder if I have him too high. One Top 10 finish last year (10th), a 15th, and otherwise pretty miserable fantasy performances. I actually thought brother Dalvin would be a good fit here but it doesn't seem like the Bills or their salary cap have any interest. So, big opportunity for Cook. Possible inverse relation between Cook and Dalton Kincaid's success. The better Kincaid does, could lead to less targets for Cook.
Bye 7 · Age 22.3 · ADP 5.03 · PPG 15.4
The uncertainty about Breece Hall's availability to start the season, including rumors of the Jets signing Dalvin Cook, makes Hall a bit risky at the cost of a third round pick. Fantasy players acquiring Hall are doing so with hopes of a second half surge. It is in the cards, but it is better to play the draft to support a strong start to the season.
Bye 13 · Age 25.3 · ADP 6.01 · PPG 4.8
This is one of the more polarizing players for fantasy this preseason. Can he adequately take over for Dalvin Cook? Opportunity is there, the skill might not be. I'd be more inclined to stockpile more receiving talent than target Mattison in a draft. I did get him RB25 in the Scott Fish Bowl.
Bye 11 · Age 24.7 · ADP 6.05 · PPG 12.6
The safest RB on the board this time last year crashed and burned for fantasy owners due to injuries - something Taylor never suffered in his career before last season - and a flop of an offense. New coaching staff, new rookie QB who should be starting sooner than later, but is raw and a runner. I'm not super excited to acquire Taylor but I won't shy away from him either. Top tier talent, this seems like a good spot to get your RB1 who should receive and can handle a large workload.
1 NFFC (12-team PPR)
2 2022 season, Half PPR scoring