Redraft bargains and busts are inevitable. Every year the hype train barrels down the tracks for certain players that end up being huge busts. Conversely, every year there are diamonds in the rough or values that are too good to pass on. The 2020 season is no different. In part one of a four-part series, we will examine one of each scenario at the quarterback position. All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.
The field at quarterback is pretty deep, as has been the case for the past few seasons. We have two sure-fire studs in Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. Then we drop to the tier of Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, and Drew Brees, who are all more than serviceable signal-callers.
QB Bargain: Matt Ryan (QB 8, ADP 82.8)
The redraft bargains and busts start with our bargain at the position. Matt Ryan often gets overlooked in fantasy. The Boston College grad seems to always produce, yet typically comes off the board later given his consistency.
The veteran signal-caller has remained consistent, logging QB1 finishes in eight of 12 seasons with the Atlanta Falcons. This is the type of consistency we look for in our starting fantasy quarterback. Of those eight QB1 finishes, six of them were in the top seven.
Using the yearly data app courtesy of Dynasty League Football, we see just how steady the franchise player is. Drew Brees is given a run for his money year in and year out from his underrated division rival.
Matt Ryan will be 35 when the season begins but has not shown any signs of slowing down. The Atlanta Falcons will not be replacing him anytime soon. The hefty contract all but assures that. The Falcons are on the hook for an enormous amount of money over the next two seasons.
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has a nice history with his WR1, WR2, and WR3 over the years. The well-traveled coach managed a WR1 finish from his top wideout in five of the last eight seasons and even had both his WR1 and WR2 finish in the top 12 at the position in 2012. A look at the coaching history app from DLF highlights how impressive and consistent he is scheming his best players to get the ball.
You could certainly do worse with the eighth quarterback off the board. If you want to stock up on running backs and receivers early, and grab quarterback late, the solid and steady Ryan is a great option.
QB Bust: Kyler Murray (QB 5, ADP 61.6)
The redrafts bargains and busts continue with our bust. There is a lot to be excited about with Kyler Murray. The Oklahoma grad has upside through the roof. However, it is hard to justify selecting him over the likes of Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson.
Ups and Downs
Murray did finish as the QB9 in his rookie season and the presence of Kliff Kingsbury has fantasy players salivating. With the youth comes some inconsistencies. For example, in Week 7 and Week 8, the dynamic quarterback combined for just 20.3 fantasy points against the New York Giants and the New Orleans Saints.
These are the kind of performances that will lose you a match up. The Arizona Cardinal signal-caller had 10 finishes of QB13 or worse. To put that in perspective, two quarterbacks going after him, Prescott and Watson, had 11 such performances combined.
For dynasty purposes, Murray is a sound investment, but we should give him at least another season to prove his worth in redraft leagues, especially as the fourth quarterback off the board.
Signs of Promise
There were times when the 23 year old showed how high his ceiling can be. This is evidenced by the 30 plus points he put up twice in 2019. A look at the game logs show just how wildly up and down he was over the course of the season.
It really all boils down to your risk aversion and how you attack fantasy football. If you like high upside players, then Murray is probably your man. Keep in mind, you can get a much more consistent player with equal upside in the next round or two that will not lose you weeks, which is likely what happened to Murray owners in Weeks 7 and 8 last season.
The thing that excites most people about the former Aggie transfer are his legs. The numbers from his junior season as a Sooner are top notch and cause for optimism that his athleticism will help him succeed at the next level.
That 2018 junior season saw Murray go over 1,000 yards on just 140 carries (7.2 YPC) and score 12 rushing touchdowns. The success seemed to translate to the NFL as he managed 544 yards on 93 carries (5.8 YPC). One major concern is the five fumbles lost during the rookie campaign.
Drafting the soon to be second year quarterback is not for the faint at heart. By all means, if you are chasing that 30 points upside, then go for it, but as mentioned before, you may be in for some 8 point weeks mixed in.
Thank you for reading part one of the redraft bargains and busts. The hope is this breakdown helps steer you towards some value during your upcoming draft. If you cannot snag a Mahomes or Jackson, it is probably wise to wait and grab all the running backs, receivers, and tight ends you can before pulling the trigger at quarterback.
As mentioned in the open, the position is deep. There is no need to reach. Running backs are up next and we will see you back here soon. Feel free to leave comments below and I will respond as soon as possible.