My 2020 fantasy football rankings first hit the website back in early June after the initial release of Draft Buddy. A few updates since then, and with NFL training camps set to start, it is time to put some player commentary to the rankings. These are my 2020 quarterback rankings, top 12 for redraft fantasy football leagues. Average Draft Position (ADP) data shown for FFPC as of July 30th.
2020 Quarterback Rankings Tier 1
ADP 3.01 (24th overall; high 12 to low 33)
Edges out Lamar Jackson for the number one spot because he is safer, relying (much) less on rushing to earn fantasy points. In a league that rewards rushing touchdowns more than passing touchdowns, consider flipping the two. They are typically drafted three to five rounds earlier than the next group of quarterbacks, so I would rarely consider drafting either in 1-QB format leagues.
ADP 2.12 (23rd overall; high 13 to low 34)
As early as April talked about running less this season, and the team added RB J.K. Dobbins in the draft. Jackson’s rushing accounted for over 35% of his total fantasy points in 2019. Last year I considered Patrick Mahomes an acceptable early draft pick because of his transcendent talent. That didn’t work out not only because of his injury but because there are many quarterback options so much cheaper. Jackson was a great example last year.
2020 Quarterback Rankings Tier 2
ADP 8.02 (85th overall; high 63 to low 102)
Efficient, in his prime, Wilson finished QB5 in 2019, QB10 in 2018, and QB1 in 2017. A solid second-tier performer. Similar to Mahomes and Jackson, I am not normally drafting from this tier of quarterbacks. However, if Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray go QB3 and QB4, causing Wilson to fall a little, then consider pulling the trigger. It depends on the makeup of your team through five or six rounds. If it is fairly balanced RB-WR, didn’t take a TE early, and you don’t love or can wait on remaining options, solidify your QB spot with Wilson.
ADP 7.04 (75th overall; high 57 to low 89)
Is a holdout brewing? Prescott is due a new contract and the Cowboys already paid big contracts to RB and LB positions since the start of last season. Fantasy players love the weapons at Prescott’s disposal with the addition of CeeDee Lamb. It will be very interesting to see the impact of new HC Mike McCarthy. I’m not so much avoiding Prescott in drafts as opposed to I prefer to draft other positions at the point someone else likes Prescott. If you prefer Prescott to Wilson, then you can apply a similar situation outlined there to decide to add him.
ADP 7.03 (74th overall; high 38 to low 90)
Finished QB9 in his rookie season and expectations are high going into year two in Kliff Kingsbury’s system and with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. Finished second in the league last season among quarterbacks in rushing yards at 544. That helps his floor. A decent buy but some concerns about a sophomore slump and a tough division.
ADP 7.10 (81st overall; high 61 to low 104)
Loses DeAndre Hopkins, gains Brandin Cooks. I like Cooks but that is a net loss. Gains David Johnson and the jury is out on that one. Watson is a great talent but sports a higher risk profile to go with it. Although, the more drafters who doubt Watson the more he turns into a target from a risk-reward standpoint.
Something I consider with quarterback-receiver pairings is, “who stirs the drink?” Does the QB help the receiver look good, or vice versa? Usually, the QB makes the receiver look good. Don’t quickly discount a player compared to Michael Jordan, at least twice.
2020 Quarterback Rankings Tier 3
ADP 11.09 (128th overall; high 84 to low 154)
Wentz played all 16 games last season resulting in a Top 10 QB finish. The Eagles added a lot of speed at receiver in the NFL Draft, indicating they weren’t happy with their 2019 dink-and-dunk offense, a necessity at the time after losing DeSean Jackson. It doesn’t seem like I have Wentz ranked particularly high, but usually, the first six go ahead of him, plus Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, and sometimes Tom Brady and Drew Brees. So yeah, Wentz is a bit underrated.
ADP 10.06 (113th overall; high 82 to low 137)
Allen is not improving as a passer at the same rate as Lamar Jackson, but back-to-back seasons with at least 500 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns are a big plus. Allen has a new weapon in WR Stefon Diggs, acquired via trade from the Vikings. Valid concerns exist that Allen’s inaccuracy will drive Diggs mad. Oh, and not to mention Diggs openly discussed concerns about playing this season, making him a higher risk opt-out candidate. On Allen, I am okay with him in best ball leagues but wouldn’t want to predict when to start him. His highest single-game gross passing yardage total is 266.
ADP 10.10 (117th overall; high 84 to low 151)
A model of consistency, Ryan missed a game last season for the first time in the decade. While not expecting a lot from the addition of RB Todd Gurley, or significant drop from losing TE Austin Hooper, Ryan is still in good shape between Julio Jones and an ascending Calvin Ridley. Ryan represents the unexciting but often good value choice at the position.
ADP 12.09 (140th overall; high 99 to low 179)
Brees received a lot of criticism this offseason with his ill-informed comments about disrespecting the flag. He apologized, is trying to make amends, and while fantasy owners seem to have forgotten somewhat, one does wonder if Brees’ teammates have. It is a lot of speculation to significantly alter his ranking (as stupid as that sounds with how unimportant fantasy football rankings are compared to the larger issue at hand), so we will stick to the facts.
The fact is, Brees is in a very good offense, has excellent weapons at his disposal, and finished QB6 or better every year from 2006 through 2016. He’s 41 years old, the weapons aren’t particularly deep, and Sean Payton is a bit infuriating when he gets Taysom Hill involved. Brees finished Top 10 in 2017, 2018, and 2019 on a point-per-game basis. He missed five games with a thumb injury. I give him a slight nod over Tom Brady due to familiarity with the offense.
ADP 12.04 (135th overall; high 89 to low 165)
Brady had his worst season statistically last year since 2013, and he only narrowly beat that out thanks to three rushing touchdowns (none in ’13). Slowing down? Quite possibly. Still worth this risk as your QB1? Quite possibly. There are great reasons to be bullish. Namely, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, returning Rob Gronkowski, and offensively gifted and aggressive head coach Bruce Arians. The running back situation could be better. Considering what Brady accomplished in the past with Julian Edelman and largely a pile of JAGs, I’ll roll with him when I am one of the last teams to draft my starting QB.
ADP 13.09 (152nd overall; high 126 to low 187)
On one hand, the Packers drafting Jordan Love could motivate a disrespected Rodgers to have his best season since 2016. On the other hand, the team really hasn’t helped surround him with very much talent, and all the motivation in the world won’t be able to push him to be a fantasy difference-maker. Lean the latter.
My early 2020 quarterback rankings placed Rodgers higher, above the older Brees and Brady. However, the difference in reliable weapons is considerable. Plus, if the Packers season turns south–a very real possibility–they just might push the Jordan Love experience. Everyone including Rodgers knows that is the future.
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