Following up last week’s recap of the FanEx FAD Best Ball Draft, here is another look at the same draft. This time I select draft picks and pans from the first five rounds.
A “Pick” is a selection that I consider good value at the spot drafted. A “Pan” is the opposite–a selection I don’t really like. Here is the full draft report.
“Pick”: 1.08 WR Davante Adams, GB
RB dry up quickly overall, but after Alvin Kamara, there is a noticeable drop in RB value in PPR scoring to the point there are a bunch of guys with similar risk-reward profiles. Alternatively, WR is deep overall but at the same time, it is Thomas, Adams, and a tier drop. Drafting Adams late-1st and then adding a second-round RB is a solid start.
“Pan”: 1.11 QB Patrick Mahomes, KC
Love Mahomes, think he is special, but I can’t get behind drafting him this early in a start 1 QB league. That applies double to a best ball league where you can draft two or three decent starters much later and take the best of their scores each week.
“Pick”: 2.07 WR Tyreek Hill, KC
Hill has more touchdown potential than Julio Jones. Hill has no uncertainty about changing teams and a sophomore QB as is the case with DeAndre Hopkins. If you want a piece of the Chiefs offense (and who doesn’t?), then Hill is one of the best options from a cost-benefit. I need to update my rankings so Hill is WR3 and a tier up from the next group.
“Pan”: 2.11 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
The second Kansas City Chief pan seems wrong but I can’t get on board with spending a second-round pick for a rookie who is likely to share time. I don’t think much of Damien Williams overall but especially with the uncertainty this season, rookies should be downgraded.
“Pick”: 3.11 RB Melvin Gordon, DEN
Gordon could really do well on the Broncos. They have a very young offense, but also sport a strong defense. While all of the RB in this range have some warts, Gordon is generally one of the last in this group to get drafted. That is a good thing from a value perspective.
He missed four games each of the last two years, last year due to his contract holdout. Gordon’s career yards per rush is poor but he is a heck of a goal-line back scoring 8-10 TD each of the past four seasons.
“Pan”: 3.06 RB David Johnson, HOU
This pick surprised me. The potential volume looks good, even great, but I’m not even sure Johnson is on par with 2019 Texans starter Carlos Hyde anymore. Johnson’s career 2016 season is getting further and further in the past.
Since then, Johnson’s yards per rush is sub-3.7. Johnson excels as a receiver, but (a) DeShaun Watson is not a big dump off guy given his rushing ability and (b) Duke Johnson returns and fills that role admirably. Too much can go wrong here for a mid-third round pick.
“Pick”: 4.12 WR A.J. Brown, TEN
I should almost say Odell Beckham, Jr. here since I was ready to draft him myself ten picks earlier than he went, but I also love Brown. The price seems steep for a second-year player in a run-heavy offense, but Brown looks like a stud WR in the making.
“Pan”: 4.04 WR Amari Cooper, DAL
WR7 a year ago drafted WR15 doesn’t seem wrong on the surface, but Cooper is someone I am going to continue to shy away from. The boom games are amazing but the bust games are too frequent. I’m not confident in another 600 pass attempts season for Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup rising and CeeDee Lamb involved adds up to a fade for Cooper.
“Pick”: (tie) 5.09 WR Terry McLaurin, WAS and 5.11 WR DK Metcalf, SEA
This is not demonstrably different than my prior round pick of A.J. Brown. Are second-year receivers setting us up for disappointment this season? Maybe, but McLaurin leads a very thin WR corps and is due a ton of targets. Metcalf has an exceptional QB and is a physical freak of nature. Picking Mark Andrews I felt it was worth taking a top TE this round, but if I waited at the position these guys were my targets.
“Pan”: 5.04 RB David Montgomery, CHI
A lot of good quality picks this round, it is tough to select a pan. I am not high on Montgomery by any means but I also don’t mind the risk-reward for him at this spot. RB position is depleting, the Chicago Bears RB depth chart is thin, and I expect an overall improvement in the Bears offense. Montgomery should be worth this spot, I just don’t expect him to exceed it, and it could be bad. I would rather take a shot on a running back drafted a round later, like Cam Akers or Raheem Mostert.
So there you have it, my draft picks and pans for this particular best ball draft through five rounds. Let me know if you agree or disagree with these choices in the comments.