Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2019 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Jameis Winston (QB11)

This was a rollercoaster ride last season. It was frustrating because the team quarterback position output by the Bucs was exceptional. They ranked 2nd in fantasy points scored, about halfway between the points scored by the Kansas City Chiefs (1st) and Atlanta Falcons (3rd). Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick split snaps in each of Weeks 4, 8 and 11.

Bruce Arians comes to town as a hired gun offensive guru, and Fitzpatrick is out of the picture. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is a clear path to fantasy gold drafting Winston. Footballguys’ Jason Wood wrote an interesting piece on 5 coaching misconceptions. One throws considerable skepticism on Arian’s supposed offensive genius.

Did you know that in 14 NFL seasons as a play-caller, Arians has only fielded three top-10 offenses? … Arians coached five years in Arizona and has as many bottom-third offenses (2-2014 and 2017) as he did top-10 offenses (2-2015 and 2016). His teams averaged 14th in yards and 15th in points in Arizona. Not bad, but hardly something that screams transformational.

Wood goes on to discuss that when Arians’ offenses excelled, it was coupled with an excellent defensive unit. That seems unlikely to be the case in Tampa, especially in Year 1 of his tenure.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Ronald Jones (RB42), Peyton Barber (RB47), Bruce Anderson (RB76)

Peyton Barber or Ronald Jones, it is pretty unclear which RB, if any, will be the primary ball carrier for this offense. Both underwhelmed considerably last season. Barber was the first rusher in the past five years to record over 250 touches (234 carries, 20 catches) but failed to surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage (871 rushing, 92 receiving). Jones has the higher pedigree as a high 2018 second round draft pick.

In early-July, Greg Auman of The Athletic says it is, “very likely,” that Barber leads the team in rushing.

Some consideration that Jones could receive more targets as Winston appears committed to checking the ball down more than forcing a play that isn’t there.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Mike Evans (WR9), Chris Godwin (WR19), Justin Watson (WR107), Breshad Perriman (WR112)

Rookie Scott Miller is a name to know in a relatively thin WR depth chart. Veteran Breshad Perriman missed some spring practice due to injury.

Justin Watson is manning the slot position early in training camp… and watching film of Larry Fitzgerald. That bodes well. I am certainly not saying Watson is the next Fitzgerald but, when Bruce Arians went to Arizona he wanted Fitzgerald to play a role similar to Hines Ward from Arians’ days in Pittsburgh. Obviously, both players flourished in this offense.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

O.J. Howard (TE4), Cameron Brate (TE29)

Fantasy players seem pretty high on O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate appears to be an afterthought if not forgotten completely.

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

Last year I was pretty keen to draft the Tampa quarterbacks. This team has great offensive weapons. At the time, a still young and developing Winston faced a four-game suspension, so he was available at a good discount.

Covering that four games didn’t appear difficult either with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick the set starter and drafted extremely late if at all. The final update of Draft Buddy last season shows Winston with an ADP of the 13th round and Fitzpatrick undrafted.

It didn’t work out quite as well as hoped, but all-in-all, pretty good for bargain shopping quarterbacks. Fitz helped win Weeks 1-3 even though Week 4 was a complete dud.

This year, Winston is on average the 11th QB off the board. While it doesn’t seem exceptionally expensive, quarterbacks often drafted after Winston include a laundry list of, “sure, I’ll take that guy.” Names like Jared Goff, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins. Some of these I like more than Winston – Goff, Jackson. Some less – Brees, Cousins.

The point is, why would I take Winston and the risk of Winston continuing to be the bonehead he’s shown at times, over these other guys? And I’m not, and neither should you.

Similarly but more to the point with the running backs, how poorly is Ronald Jones showing in training camp that Peyton Barber continues to be in the conversation of starter? There is nothing special about Barber. I can only surmise then, that there is not much special about Jones, either.

According to FantasyPros ADP, Jones is the 41st RB off the board and Barber is right behind him at 42nd. See, no one knows. If I had to take one, then take a shot on the younger guy Jones and hope last year was a severe case of being overwhelmed as a rookie.

More than likely, I am boosting my WR corps at this point of the draft instead of drafting either one of these guys. Don’t need the headache figuring out who to start, or patience, in this case, waiting for one to get injured so the other can, maybe, exceed expectations.

Wide receivers, now we are talking. Love Mike Evans. I admit I do shy away from him a little bit because of the other options for the premium pick. A RB could make more sense since the top guys at RB dry up quicker. Plus, Evans’ running mate Godwin is very good and seems to be a better red-zone target. Between Evans and, say, Amari Cooper, Cooper might have a cleaner path to being an Alpha receiver.

Speaking of Chris Godwin, he gets drafted right around the D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley group of young, next generation emerging receivers. Ideally, I will draft two of these players as I very much like the cost-risk-reward they represent. Very often, Godwin is one I end up with, which further supports passing on Evans earlier. Don’t need two receivers from the same team competing for targets. It is better to diversify.

Re-reading my notes from above (I am writing these team reports over a long span of days) reminded me of Justin Watson. I haven’t drafted him or seen him drafted even in deep bestball drafts. Let’s keep him in mind as a potential early season waiver add.

I am off on O.J. Howard. I’m surprised where he is getting drafted given the poor track record of tight end usage by Bruce Arians. Sure, Howard is probably a better player than Arians’ had in the past, but there are two very good receivers on this team. Let someone else draft Howard and hope it all works out.