Seattle Seahawks 2019 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Russell Wilson (QB7)

Russell Wilson is an excellent NFL quarterback. In fact, one could make a pretty solid argument if you were starting an NFL franchise, he should be one of the top picks in that hypothetical draft.

However, it gets dicier deciding what to do with Wilson for fantasy. He finished QB10 last season but on an extremely modest 427 pass attempts. The next closest in the Top 12 quarterbacks, 489 by Drew Brees (QB8). Wilson adds some value with his rushing but didn’t score a rushing TD last year. The prior year, Wilson finished QB1 on 553 passing attempts and with 3 rushing TD.

We can conclude Wilson is a very efficient QB, but as with any player he needs volume to really blow our socks off. The Seahawks are keen and capable to run the ball a lot, so Wilson’s modest ranking outside the top tier, but ahead of the larger group of “wait on” QB, appears about right.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Chris Carson (RB26), Rashaad Penny (RB31), Travis Homer (RB102)

Early training camp reports indicate OC Brian Schottenheimer is using the running backs more in the passing game. One would think this is a plus for Rashad Penny, but the piece praises Chris Carson’s catching ability.

Carson seems to have a pretty firm grip on the starting job. Penny might need an injury to Carson to really get an opportunity to shine.

C.J. Prosise is a release candidate behind Carson, Penny, and then J.D. McKissic and Travis Homer.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Tyler Lockett (WR22), D.K. Metcalf (WR45), David Moore (WR89), Gary Jennings (WR116)

Tyler Lockett had an exceptional 2018 season scoring 10 TD on only 57 receptions. Fantasy players are quick to predict regression, Lockett can’t possibly match that TD to reception ratio. Doug Baldwin is gone however, so could half of his 70 targets push Lockett over 100 over 16 games? That still isn’t a ton of targets for a team’s primary receiver.

Rookie D.K. Metcalf missed a team scrimmage because of an oblique injury. While a minor news story, it highlights concern that a really musclebound player, of which Metcalf certainly fits the bill, is more prone to soft-tissue injuries.

David Moore returns. His catch rate needs to improve but otherwise, his stats look good for a rookie. Similar to Lockett’s numbers, Moore caught 5 TD on only 26 catches. If I am not confident in Metcalf making an immediate impact – I’m not – then Moore should be a late target. I’m not sure he will have enough volume to become a reliable fantasy asset.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Will Dissly (TE31)

This group is very thin. The Seattle Times reports Will Dissly is the only, “lock” to make the roster, with Nick Vannett and Jacob Hollister expected to fill the other two spots. Ed Dickson is set to miss at least 4-5 weeks after undergoing a procedure on his knee.

There is practically no fantasy value here, and makes one wonder if we should project more receptions on the wide receivers and running backs.

Dissly performed well as a rookie in a very small sample before being lost for the year in Week 4 with a torn patella tendon.

Update: Seattle Seahawks TE Jacob Hollister has, “been as impressive as anyone on the roster,” in the receiving game so far during training camp, according to beat writer Michael-Shawn Dugar. Deep sleeper candidate…?

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

I currently have Wilson ranked 9th at QB. That is slightly lower than his ADP of QB7. The two players on average drafted lower than Wilson but ranked ahead of him are Carson Wentz and Jared Goff.

Wilson’s upside is capped because it doesn’t seem likely he is going to throw that much (or run a ton, either). He gets the most out of his throws, and he will need at least one of David Moore or D.K. Metcalf to make a significant impact, but I would rather Wentz, Goff, Baker Mayfield or Matt Ryan over Wilson.

Not that there aren’t other QB I have ranked below Wilson with upside too, such as Kyler Murray or Jameis Winston. End of the day, weighing the risk-reward, I’ve got Wilson slotted in at a point where I’d be willing to take him if he falls there or lower. He’s sort of a consolation prize at QB this season. Still need a decent starting QB? Wilson is available. Okay.

Carson worries me from a durability standpoint, although his ADP is pretty fair given that and the presence of Penny. I’d almost say I would prefer to roster Penny, but the Seahawks really don’t seem to be backing down that Carson is the starter.

Given their ADP is relatively close, it is not very realistic or beneficial to plan to draft both guys. Need to make a call on one and go with it. Similar to David Montgomery discussed yesterday, if I start my draft with two receivers, Carson is probably the better target. He is the guy drafted a little later at RB who we can comfortably start Week 1.

Alternatively, if I take a more balanced approach early and am stockpiling mid-round RB with upside, Penny is a good target. They both might be viable, given the number of touches the running backs should receive, although that isn’t something we want to bank on at this point.

Tyler Lockett is getting drafted behind some second receivers on more prolific passing offenses, like Chris Godwin, Robert Woods and Calvin Ridley. While expecting another 10 TD performance on 70 targets is a bit foolish, expecting those targets to jump to 100, and hope for more, is well within the realm of possibility. Target Lockett.

D.K. Metcalf is way too expensive as a rookie WR for redraft for my liking. Do not draft.

David Moore I might give some consideration late in drafts. In my most recent PPR bestball, Moore went in the 20th round. That is really cheap.

Not drafting any Seahawks TE but will monitor this Hollister situation. If he develops good chemistry with Wilson, we know that can turn into a nice touchdown coup. Seahawks TE scored 15 TD in 2017, led by Jimmy Graham’s 10 all inside the red zone.