Denver Broncos 2019 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Joe Flacco (QB30), Drew Lock (QB33)

The Case Keenum experiment lasted one year, and now the Broncos are on to Joe Flacco. Expect a similar Broncos career trajectory. I hope John Elway is not trying to recreate the Peyton Manning experience with the likes of these veteran quarterbacks no other team is interested in.

Admittedly, Flacco hasn’t had much in the way of receivers in recent years, but a single 4,000+ yard passing season in his career… this doesn’t all fall on the receivers.

Drew Lock is apparently no where close to looking the part of a NFL-caliber quarterback. A name to monitor is rookie Brett Rypien. Pulled this from Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio July Newsletter:

QB Brett Rypien: Broncos.com reports that Rypien impressed head coach Vic Fangio against Denver’s first-team defense last Sunday. Rypien earned high marks from me and RSP contributor Mark Schofield prior to the NFL Draft. Cecil Lammey reported that Drew Lock is a significant project who is struggling in practice more than some reports suggest and that he’s firmly third on the depth chart, Rypien has a chance to make a good impression. The problem is that Denver will likely feel beholden to keep Lock on the active roster or the pick will look like a mistake to the fan base. Considering that Lock might not earn the third spot, Rypien’s path to staying with the team will be the practice squad if he performs well during the season. However, Rypien might jump at a better offer to sign with a practice squad elsewhere if Denver cuts him. If he stays in Denver, he might also be aware of the same thing that I believe–he’s a better talent than Lock and could earn a shot to overtake him if Lock performs like ‘bad’ Jeff George too often. Rypien’s footwork and ball-handling also makes him a great fit for this Shanahan offense.

I believe you need to purchase Matt’s RSP to receive the newsletter, but Matt’s annual rookie report is highly recommended.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Phillip Lindsay (RB22), Royce Freeman (RB40), Devontae Booker (RB97)

Phillip Lindsay is still rehabbing from his wrist injury meaning Royce Freeman is earning reps with the starters through OTAs. With a new regime in place, let’s not assume Lindsay has the upper hand due to loyalty from last season. Certainly, Freeman has a higher pedigree as a 2018 3rd round pick versus Lindsay signed as a 2018 UDFA.

Recent reports since the start of training camp envision Freeman-Lindsay similar to the Atlanta Falcons backfield duo of Devonta Freeman (played by Freeman) and Tevin Coleman (played by Lindsay). Freeman should be a better fit for a zone-blocking scheme the team plans to implement.

Freeman was banged up much of last season which opened the door, so a reversal of fortune this year is quite possible. Overall, a pretty muddy situation to figure out potential split of touches.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Courtland Sutton (WR35), Emmanuel Sanders (WR46), DaeSean Hamilton (WR68)

Courtland Sutton is set to take over the number one receiver role on the Broncos, but gone are the Peyton Manning-Demaryius Thomas years. Maybe Kyle Orton-Brandon Marshall can return?

Flacco’s top receiver each of the past two seasons with the Ravens failed to crack 800 yards (2018: John Brown, 715; 2017: Mike Wallace, 748). Mike Wallace hit 1,017 in 2016.

DaeSean Hamilton is expected to be the third WR running out of the slot. That assumes Emmanuel Sanders is healthy enough to be an outside starter from Week 1 this season. Sanders is not expected back with the team for 2020.

Latest on Sanders is he is participating in early portion of practices and then working with trainers. He isn’t on preseason PUP, a good sign. It is, “a slow but sure process,” according to head coach Vic Fangio. A few IFs here, but if Sanders is a full-go early in the season, and if Flacco trusts Sanders more than Sutton, Sanders could represent a nice value where he is currently drafted.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Noah Fant (TE19)

Jake Butt is on track for training camp but he missed all but three games played last season since his draft selection in 2017. One assumes Butt is now behind first-round pick Noah Fant and perhaps doesn’t have enough experience to hold off veteran Jeff Heuerman

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

The idea of drafting Joe Flacco is not that different than my thoughts about drafting a Redskins QB. That is – not going to do it unless in exceptional circumstances of really wanting a third QB in a superflex league. Considering Flacco has better weapons and seemingly no competition behind him relative to Case Keenum, that tells you how much I think of Flacco for fantasy purposes.

Early this draft season I was keen to draft Royce Freeman in the 9th round and completely fade Lindsay. At the time that was mostly out of uncertainty about his wrist injury recovery, which seems good now. It just seemed like a prime opportunity where either of the two players could earn the starting role in the offense. Taking a chance on Freeman at that price is a good value proposition.

Now the gap is narrowing between Lindsay and Freeman, I am less interested in both. I won’t pay a mid-4th round pick for Lindsay over a David Montgomery or Chris Carson type with (seemingly) less uncertainty about their competition for carries if I’m looking for a RB. Or, I’d probably prefer a choice of some prime WR in this range, such as Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Kenny Golladay.

If a draft progresses where I’ve got a strong receiving corps but less quality at RB then I need to stockpile some middle round backs with upside. In this scenario, if Freeman falls to represent good value then he is an ideal target.

Courtland Sutton, I am not really sure what I am getting. Scouting reports are a bit off on him. Should be / could be the number one… okay, maybe. Let someone else draft Sutton and see how consistently he produces in an average offense with an average QB while still very much learning the position.

I am more than willing to draft Emmanuel Sanders as the old reliable veteran in an otherwise green receiving group. That assumes his injury recovery continues to receive positive reports, but his ADP is already rising as a result so he might get priced out for me before too long.

Noah Fant is a rookie, I recommend to not draft him.