Chicago Bears 2019 Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Mitchell Trubisky (QB21)

How are we feeling about Mitch Trubisky? He played 14 games last season, ran a little bit, scoring 3 times on the ground, and finished QB15. In the first year of a new offense under head coach Matt Nagy, one would expect at least some gradual improvement.

He is a little loosey-goosey with the ball. Although the 66.6% completion percentage and 12 interceptions appear fine, only 434 pass attempts including 52 (presumably high percentage) catches by Tarik Cohen and 3 fumbles lost, ball security could be better.

Trubisky’s been the target of criticism on social media early in training camp for interceptions and inconsistent play during drills. That’s lead to various news outlets wondering, “Good ‘D’ or bad throw?” I think big picture it is a positive for a QB – any athlete – to play against better competition in practice. It ultimately makes them better.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

David Montgomery (RB21), Tarik Cohen (RB28), Mike Davis (RB70)

The Bears weren’t happy with Jordan Howard. He didn’t fit their system, so they traded him to the Philadelphia Eagles and drafted David Montgomery. Teams certainly like to prove to the world, “they were right,” and I think this is one of those cases. Although the team signed Mike Davis, who performed well in a reserve role, it sure looks like coach Nagy is trying to fit Montgomery into a spot similar to what he had with Kareem Hunt in Kansas City.

Tarik Cohen expects to have a similar role as last season, which is fewer than 100 carries but around 70 catches. Including 8 TD, that pushed Cohen to rank RB11 last season in PPR leagues. However, looking closer at his late game logs, his usage went down the final four regular season games plus the Wild-Card game in 2018.

Furthermore, Cohen caught 19 passes from Chase Daniel when he started two games for an injured Mitch Trubisky.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Allen Robinson (WR29), Anthony Miller (WR51), Riley Ridley (WR96), Taylor Gabriel (WR102)

Seasons are adding up since Allen Robinson’s 80-1,400-14 stat line from 2015. The 2016 season on identical targets of 151, the stats slumped to 73-883-6. Then 2017 was a writeoff with the ACL injury. Last season, return from knee injury on anew team with a new offense and young quarterback. Will the real Allen Robinson please stand up?

Anthony Miller apparently played dinged up much of last season, and performed pretty well regardless. He is the unquestioned starter opposite Allen Robinson, with Taylor Gabriel more of a gadget third receiver. Miller is an intriguing option as a potential breakout candidate in his second year.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 1)

Trey Burton (TE14), Adam Shaheen (TE50)

Trey Burton is recovering from hernia surgery and it looks like he could be held out of preseason. The team’s focus is prepping Burton to be ready for Week 1 of the season. If his first action is in fact Week 1, then that doesn’t provide a lot of confidence for a strong start to the season.

Adam Shaheen backs up Burton, although he isn’t a draft consideration except in the deepest of TE premium leagues.

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

Fantasy players do not seem like they care for Mitch Trubisky very much. He’s falling past the 20th drafted QB even after finishing QB15 last season in 14 games. Usually we would expect modest improvement from a young QB that results in a possible overvalue this season.

I am not going out of my way to draft him, but I’ve drafted him a couple of times as a backup on the cheap. I’d rather hope for a little improvement on a team expected to win the majority of its games than, say, a Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold or Andy Dalton on teams with much lower win expectations.

David Montgomery is a buy in the 5th round. Don’t let the rookie label scare you in this case when comparing him to similarly drafted players with playing time or injury risk red flags. That said, I haven’t drafted him yet. He’s an ideal target as an RB2 if you start 2-3 WR or 2 WR and a TE. Most of my drafts so far I have 2 RB through three rounds. Montgomery hasn’t really come into play.

Tarik Cohen is drafted seven RB later, about a round or so, after Montgomery. I don’t like that value. You should much rather have Montgomery at his price than Cohen at his.

Mike Davis really does sort of feel like a journeyman even though he performed well last season setting career highs across the board on a very run heavy team. Give him some late handcuff consideration if you have Montgomery but otherwise leave him undrafted.

Receiving options are still pretty thin on this team. Eight targets per game for Robinson, which is what he received from Week 13 on last season, seems like a reasonable estimate. That would push him close to 130 for the season, matching about the 15th ranked WR in targets. He’s getting drafted 30th. I like this value proposition. If he’s still available after 25 WR are off the board, grab him.

As mentioned above, Anthony Miller is an acceptable later round add when stockpiling young potential breakout WR.

There are at least half a dozen TE options drafted after Trey Burton that I would rather roster.