On to commentary for Round 3. I definitely started a WR run. I love when that happens. Here are the picks:
- FF Today – WR Torry Holt, STL
- CBS Sportsline – WR Marvin Harrison, IND
- XpertSports – WR Javon Walker, DEN
- Fantasy Tailgate – WR Chad Johnson, CIN
- FFToolbox – WR Terrell Owens, DAL
- Football Diehards – WR Reggie Wayne, IND
- Footballguys – RB Cadillac Williams, TB
- FantasyFootball.com #1 – WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN
- Junkyard Jake – WR Roy Williams, DET
- FFXtreme – WR Anquan Boldin, ARI
- Coachbox – RB Thomas Jones, CHI
- FantasyFootball.com #2 – WR Marques Colston, NO
I try to follow my tiers religously, but when drafting on an end it can become difficult to follow the tiers. As much as I didn’t really want to draft back-to-back WR with only 1 off the board and still a number of others I’d be just as happy with, I felt Torry Holt was the best choice here. The available RB are question marks or marginal talents. Thomas Jones got some consideration at the pick. It is too early for Antonio Gates in a non-PPR scoring system, and there is a small chance he gets back to me in the 4th/5th Rounds. QB? No way, too early. If Peyton was there he would have been a strong candidate. Otherwise there is little value in taking a QB when there are a handful of others that can produce similar numbers.
As for why Torry Holt over some of the other WR, like I said, it is a close call and there are a few others I’d be happy with. Holt did disappoint down the stretch this past season, which likely cost me a couple league championships, but big picture this guy has it all. Talent, attitude, supporting cast, a good balance of age and experience, and plays in a historically weak division. There really aren’t any blights on Holt’s resume, giving me an incredible #1A and #1B WR tandem paired with Larry Fitzgerald.
While I am happy about starting a WR run, the sign of good drafters is they do go for the value plays adding a quality WR rather than keep hitting the well for marginal RB this round. Harrison, Walker, Johnson, Owens and Wayne. That cleaned out the top tier of WR, and then some, in one fell swoop. It would seem to me Walker is the biggest stretch here, although one never knows when Owens will blow and gasket and be sitting at home for the duration of the season.
Reggie Wayne is actually the player I went back and forth about the most between him, Fitzgerald and Holt. I really like Reggie Wayne in that Colts offense. Marvin Harrison isn’t going away just yet, but I was less than impressed with his play during the Colts’ Super Bowl run. Other than tying up a defender or two, he wasn’t a big factor, including not going after the ball on an interception against the Ravens, and failing to come down with a couple other catchable balls. Although this is getting to be an annual theme, Wayne will surpass Harrison one of these years. I’m leaning the odds are now greater than 50% for Wayne to do it in 2007.
Age 34 28
2004 86-1,113, 15 TD 77-1,210, 12 TD
2005 82-1,146, 12 TD 83-1,055, 5 TD
2006 95-1,366, 12 TD 86-1,310, 9 TD
From where I’m sitting, it would seem there is a bit of a drop-off about halfway through the 3rd Round. I don’t care for the Cadillac Williams pick. I was very high on him heading into 2006, but he really crashed and burned. He gives a strong impression of a player who needs an exceptional supporting cast to succeed. He didn’t have it in ’06, and at this point ’07 isn’t looking much better for the Bucs. There is still a lot of time in the offseason for the Bucs to correct some things, but right now it looks like the same QBs competing for the job, an even older Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton now two years removed from a great rookie season and an average TE in Alex Smith.
As much as I like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, he seems like a pick without much upside at this point. Roy Williams is a good pick. Mike Martz returns as OC of the Lions, so somehow, someway, the Lions’ QB position will exceed 4,000 yards passing.
Thomas Jones continues to be a risky pick because of the Cedric Benson factor. Who knows if Jones will even be with the Bears for opening day 2007? I think the Bears would be making a huge mistake trading away Jones and relying so much on Benson, who hasn’t impressed me very much in his first two years, but it is a very real possibility. Still, at this point given the available RB, Jones is a good pick. It is hard to imagine whether he is on the Bears or elsewhere that a healthy Thomas Jones will be a backup. The guy has been too good the past 2 seasons for that to happen just yet.
Speaking of Michael Clayton… no one can argue Marques Colston was a great surprise this season, but heading into 2007 I don’t think I want him as my #1 WR. I do believe he will be fine and continue to be amongst the top receivers in the league. He produced all season without really slowing down, except due to injury. He has a great supporting cast returning. Reports indicate he is a good character guy who is willing to work to excel in the league. He should be fine. I’m just saying I’d be more comfortable with a guy like Anquan Boldin at my #1 WR, given he has more history to reflect on and show he wasn’t a 1-year fluke, than Colston.
Wow. Newsflash: The San Diego Chargers announced the firing of Head Coach Marty Schottenheimer. Can’t say I disagree with the decision, but the timing is a bit baffling. Why they didn’t do this earlier before both OC Cam Cameron and DC Wade Phillips flew the coup is a mystery, not to mention every other head coaching job in the NFL is now filled. The available replacement candidates is not a marquee list by any means. I might have to delay my Round 4 mock draft commentary as I sift through who Schotty’s potential successor might be.
Until next time.