Fantasy Football Undervalued, Overvalued – AFC West

This is part 4 of our preseason series looking at over-and-undervalued players for every team. Up today? The AFC West.

This is the scary time of year, especially if you draft early. It seems like every day we’ve got another guy getting hurt, and we get to figure out how serious it is. Are we talking just a couple of days? Weeks? The whole year? RIP Chris Brazzell and Ricky Pearsall.

May all of your players avoid this fate, and let’s get into my thoughts on these players.

Fantasy Football Overvalued

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (RB12)

Yeah, I know, I’m swimming upstream when it comes to Kenneth Walker. But you know me, I’m OK with that. Out of curiosity, when was the last time Andy Reid gave one RB the lion’s share of the work? Yup, it was Kareem Hunt. It might not seem like that long ago, but Hunt’s last season in his first stint in Kansas City was 2018. So we’re talking the better part of a decade. Now add into this: what does Walker not do well? Oddly enough, short yardage. Does that sound vaguely Isiah Pacheco-ish to you? It does to me.

Now I don’t think Walker will bust this year. On the contrary, think he’ll be a decent RB2. But drafting him as an RB1 is a mistake when I can be drafting stud WRs or TEs in that slot. And the fact that Hunt is out there lurking, unsigned, just gives me the willies. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him in a Kansas City uniform not long after training camp is done.

RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos (RB34)

Boy, it really seems like I hate all the RBs in the AFC West, doesn’t it? I promise, I don’t, and of the RBs that I think are overrated, RJ Harvey is the least offensive of them. Granted, it helps that he’s the cheapest by far, but that’s part of the point. There are just so many things working against Harvey. Denver re-signed J.K. Dobbins (that’s so many initials for a single RB room), traded for Jaylen Waddle, Sean Payton is still the head coach, and Harvey isn’t great between the tackles.

At RB34 it’s not the worst thing in the world, but I’d rather look for other positions in that area. In particular, I tend to be a fan of the WRs around there – just check out my AFC South article where I talk about Wan’Dale Robinson and Jakobi Meyers.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (RB10)

I don’t hate all RBs, I promise. This has to do with one very specific aspect, and very little of it has to do with Omarion Hampton. The big problem with Hampton coming out of college was obvious his rookie year. Namely, that he’s very athletically gifted, but doesn’t have the nuance of the position. Terrible in pass protection, makes incorrect reads when running, even a boneheaded mistake that luckily didn’t cost them the game. Then, as the season went on he got hurt and Kimani Vidal did an OK job of filling in. Skip ahead to this offseason when new OC Mike McDaniel brought in Keaton Mitchell at RB.

One thing that helped bolster Hampton’s performance last year was his performance in the receiving game. He averaged six targets/game once he was the primary RB before he hurt his ankle. He didn’t get as much after he returned to the lineup later in the year, but still saw another game with eight.

Well, guess what Mitchell does so well? If you guessed work in the passing game, you’re exactly right. In fact, the highlights coming out of Chargers’ camp show Mitchell working downfield. If Mitchell is seeing those ~5 targets/game instead of Hampton, that’s taking a lot of wind out of Hampton’s sails.

Of these three RBs I’ve talked about, I believe Hampton is the one who has the highest odds to disappoint the most considering their respective costs.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (TE1)

Brock Bowers is a great player and TE. He’s also overvalued as the overall TE1. Both things can be true. Funnily enough, I made this same argument last year that he should be the TE2 behind Trey McBride, and it took an injury, but I looked pretty smart there. That’s actually the big thing with Bowers; he has a little problem with injuries. Not injury-prone necessarily, but he’s also not the biggest guy playing TE. He’s almost more like a big WR than he is a TE. Which is great for fantasy… unless he’s not healthy.

I actually studied how sticky availability is from year to year, and we’re not talking a 95%+ confidence rate for you stats nerds, but there’s enough there for me to knock Bowers out of the top slot. Enough to not draft him? Probably, as there are always guys I want more, and I’m content to take TEs later if it comes down to it. 

Fantasy Football Undervalued

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (WR63)

Look, I don’t love any of the Raiders non-Bowers/Ashton Jeanty players, just to be clear. Now, with that said? WR63 for Tre Tucker, who was Las Vegas’ 2025 leading wide receiver and WR37 overall, seems disrespectful. Especially when you consider the biggest WR they added in the offseason was checks notes… Jalen Nailor. Not exactly someone who’s going to vacuum up targets. Now a fully healthy Brock Bowers? Could be a different story, but if you read above, you know I’m not exactly counting on that.

Again, don’t go out and take Tucker as one of your top three WRs. But he doesn’t deserve to go undrafted as much as he is, either. So if you’re looking for a late-round flyer, you could do a lot worse.

Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (WR41)

If you rostered Quentin Johnston in 2025, you understand better than most just how misleading his WR29 finish was. He had seven games as a WR2 or better, with three top 10 finishes. He also had four games where he finished outside of the top 60 WRs, including two games without a single point. So I kind of get the WR41 ranking; it’s tough to feel good about him.

So why am I more bullish this year? In short – Mike McDaniel. I don’t think I can overstate just how big of an upgrade for fantasy it is to go from Greg Roman as an OC to Mike McDaniel. There will be more space, more creativity, and more modern concepts in the passing game for Johnston and the Chargers this year. At a WR41 price, you should get a WR3 at worst with a handful of WR1 weeks sprinkled in. That’s upside that’s hard to find at this price point.

Tyquan Thornton, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (WR96)

We’ve got two clear themes for the AFC West, huh? RBs are relatively overvalued, and we’ve got some wildly mispriced WRs. While Cyrus Allen is getting all the press, he’s still a rookie. Instead, it’s Tyquan Thornton that looks like he’s got one of the three WR slots locked down. It’s tough to get too excited about the Kansas City passing game thanks to the presence of target black holes Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, but there’s no way the 3rd/4th option in the passing game should be beyond free in drafts.

Don’t take Thornton as one of your top 4 WRs even, but if you’re getting to the end of your draft and thinking between your 5th backup RB and a WR who could very well be a priority waiver wire pickup after Week 1, Thornton’s the player for you.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos (RB32)

My feelings on J.K. Dobbins are essentially the inverse of backfield running mate R.J. Harvey. While it’s true that Sean Payton is still the head coach and the Broncos are still likely to throw a lot, Dobbins was a priority to bring back this year. Even more than that, Dobbins had other options on the table and chose to come back to Denver. Need someone at the goal line? Dobbins is your guy. Need someone you can rely on in the passing game? Dobbins is your guy. Need someone who can handle 25 touches in a game? You guessed it: Dobbins is your guy.

Is it gonna be pretty? No, probably not. But at the end of the year, when all is said and done, we’re probably looking at Dobbins as a top 24 RB. Likely at the lower end, but that’s better than where he is getting drafted.