Fantasy Football Overvalued, Undervalued – AFC South

This is Part 3 of my fantasy football overvalued / undervalued series. Check back for AFC East and AFC North.

Training camps are here, football taeks are flooding timelines, and the calendar is getting ready to flip over to August. Real football is just a few weeks away.

Far be it from me to not join in weighing in on players, too. Even before we have a bunch of data points for players throughout training camps, we had a whole offseason of information informing them. So settle in, and have a look at a handful of players I believe should be valued differently than they are. This time we look at the AFC South.

Fantasy Football Overvalued

Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts (QB25)

This has everything to do with Daniel Jones’ late-season Achilles tendon tear. If you’re wondering how I could have the QB25 under the “Overvalued” header, just go back and watch some film of Kirk Cousins the year after he tore his. He couldn’t push off, he couldn’t generate any power, and even handing the ball off well was a struggle. Jones is already limited as a processor of the game, but is a pretty good athlete from the QB position. Take away his ability to scramble and convert near the goal line, though, and you’re taking a lot of wind out of his value.

I’m not saying we’ll definitely see Anthony Richardson or Riley Leonard at points throughout this season, but it won’t shock me if we do. Jones had a magical run to start off last season, but don’t let that inflate his value for you this year.

Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (RB25)

I know, everyone was excited about Bhayshul Tuten when the Jaguars took him in the 2025 NFL Draft. And then Travis Etienne went out and had a great season for the resurgent Jacksonville team. Meanwhile, Tuten very much looked like, well, a 4th-round rookie RB. Which is to say some physical skill, but clearly lacking the finesse of the position or most of the finer points.

Enter Chris Rodriguez. No, he’s not an exciting RB at all. But he’s a professional NFL RB, and a guy who will do the ‘little things’ at the position. And you know who loves those kinds of RBs? Coaches. To add another layer to it, head coach Liam Coen has history with Rodriguez.

I think Tuten is fine as a depth RB on your roster, but as a good RB4, not a high-end RB3/low-end RB2, which is where the consensus is ranking him.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans (WR9)

Saying Nico Collins is overrated hurts me. Because I genuinely believe anything but that. On another team, like the Bengals? I think Collins would challenge for overall WR1 year in and year out. But he’s stuck in Houston. A very good team, but with some very real challenges in the passing game.

Their offensive line has been, well, offensive; they’re a dominating defensive team and don’t need to score a lot of points; their QB C.J. Stroud looked like he was channeling Zach Wilson down the stretch for Houston last year, and they traded for a very good RB (more on him later) for a head coach who loves to run the ball. Now add in the fact that Collins usually misses a few games every year after pulling or twisting a body part. That’s a lot working against you to finish as a top 12 WR.

If we see rookie-year Stroud again? This will make me look very foolish. I’m just not betting on that happening. Pass on taking Collins, pivot to another position instead, and fill out your WR corps a little later instead.

Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans (WR30)

This is just a matter of the wrong Tennessee Titan ranking higher. To be clear, I think Carnell Tate is going to be a great player, potentially one of the better WRs in the whole NFL. This is getting ahead of ourselves, though.

While I think Cam Ward will take a step forward as a QB this year, the fact is he wasn’t very good last year. And drafting a rookie WR for a QB who wasn’t very good as one of your starting WRs is a tough spot to put yourself in. Not only that, but this isn’t Tetairoa McMillan going to a team with no other NFL WRs on his team. On the contrary, there are a couple on the Titans. Both Calvin Ridley and one other, who I will mention later.

As a WR4, I think Tate is fine, and probably one of the more interesting players. But I’m not willing to pay a premium for him this year.

Fantasy Football Undervalued

David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans (RB23)

This is the flip side of all the negative points I made for Nico Collins. David Montgomery, now passed over by both Chicago and Detroit, finally gets out of the NFC North. And he’s on a team that wants to pound the rock. Fellow RB Woody Marks showed some skills as a rookie in 2025. But Marks’ build is more like a complementary RB rather than a truck who can carry the load.

Enter ‘Monty’. It’s easy to see Houston giving Montgomery 20 touches/game in addition to the goal line work. Even in a plodding offense and behind a suspect offensive line, that’s probably good enough to get into high-end RB2 range and maybe even low-end RB1.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Tennessee Titans (WR45)

Remember how I said one of Carnell Tate’s teammates should be ranked much higher? Well, Wan’Dale Robinson is that guy. And beyond that, I think Robinson could be That Guy this year, too. As it is, he was WR16 last year, granted for a different team, but the point is that he’s Done The Thing before. Additionally, he was actually well thought of coming out of college; it just took his game a couple of years to translate to the NFL. Well, that, and the New York Giants’ QBs were a dumpster fire pre-Jaxson Dart. 

Even though I’m not super excited about Cam Ward, he showed some things down the stretch last year. And now, he’s got some guys who can actually catch the ball. I’m not saying Robinson will be WR16 again, but top 30? Absolutely.

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (WR44)

When it comes to undervalued players on the Jaguars, I genuinely went in thinking, “It’s whichever of the main WRs is ranked the lowest.” Lo and behold, Jakobi Meyers is the winner. Quite frankly, I don’t understand the disrespect. Yes, Meyers was WR35 in 2025, and that’s not that different from this ranking, so not bad, right? The problem is there are two different players hiding in that WR35 finish. The first half of the season he was on the hapless Raiders, and was WR51. Then the Raiders traded Meyers to the Jaguars after Week 9, and he finished as WR17 from Week 10-17.

Now I’m not saying to expect a WR17 finish from him again this year. But a good WR2? Absolutely. So getting Meyers anywhere around this rank would be a tremendous value. Although full disclosure: I feel similarly about Parker Washington, and whichever you can get later in your draft is the one to grab.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (RB4)

“Lou, how can you have the RB4 as undervalued?!” Well, because they’re my rankings, dang it, and it’s not like I’m knocking anyone else down that much. Remember up above where I said all that about Daniel Jones and the passing offense? Well, the Colts still have a very good offensive line, and Jonathan Taylor is still a phenomenal running back.

I foresee the Colts leaning on Taylor to carry the offense at least through the first half of the season as they figure out what Jones is capable of. And even if they have to go to one of the backups, because both Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard can run at least a little bit, that will help take some eyes off of Taylor.

Is it going to be pretty? Not necessarily. But Taylor has already shown throughout his career that he can carry a big load and carry it well. If nothing else, the volume will be there.