Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers 2019 Postmortem

Chris Archer — The overall numbers from Chris’ streaming suggestions are not great… but he’s here for a postmortem.

This is my weekly column where I suggest streaming low owned starting pitchers that have a match up in their favor in the coming week, in an effort to help your fantasy baseball team. This week I’m going to recap all of my suggestions from the recently concluded 2019 MLB regular season.

As a reminder, my process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% because they tend to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

Before we look back at the 2019 season, let’s look back at my previous recommendations for starting pitchers to stream back in Week 26 and Week 27.

Evaluating Streaming Starting Pitchers Suggested in Weeks 26 & 27

Name	Date	G	IP	ER	H	BB	K	DEC	ERA	WHIP
Alex Young, ARI	9/17 vs MIA	1	5.00	1	5	4	4	ND	1.80	1.80
Adrian Houser, MIL	9/18 vs SDP	1	5.00	2	3	0	5	L	3.60	0.60
Anibal Sanchez, WAS	9/20 @ MIA	1	5.00	3	6	1	1	W	5.40	1.40
Ross Stripling, LAD	9/25 @ SDP	1	3.00	3	4	1	7	ND	9.00	1.67
Tyler Beede, SFG	9/26 vs COL	1	3.33	0	0	0	7	ND	0.00	0.00
Cumulative Streaming Season Total		55	276.33	147	296	95	248	17 – 20	4.79	1.41

Lamet’s scheduled start on Sep 29th never happened. Of the starts that did happen, it is safe to say that I am happy with three out of the five.

Here’s a look back at the two-start pitcher I recommended back in Weeks 26 and 27. Funny thing happened though. I suggested Kyle Gibson for two starts in Week 26 and neither materialized. His first start was later in the week against a different opponent and, as a result, his second start was pushed into the following week.

Name	Date	G	IP	ER	H	BB	K	DEC	ERA	WHIP
Homer Bailey, KCR	9/24 @ LAA	1	5.00	3	8	0	3	L	5.40	1.60
Cumulative Two-Start Season Total		34	185.67	81	176	52	177	16 – 7	3.93	1.23

The Royals opted to not start Bailey after the game against the Angels.

2019 Postmortem

Here’s a monthly breakdown of all the pitchers I recommended this season.

Month	G	IP	ER	H	BB	K	W-L	ERA	WHIP
April	9	49.00	21	49	13	46	4 – 2	3.86	1.27
May	20	107.00	54	104	42	103	7 – 6	4.54	1.36
June	19	101.67	58	105	28	77	7 – 8	5.13	1.31
July	11	59.33	38	74	13	57	6 – 3	5.76	1.47
August	14	67.00	33	64	34	69	4 – 4	4.43	1.46
September	16	78.00	24	76	17	73	5 – 4	2.77	1.19
Total	89	462.00	228	472	147	425	33 – 27	4.44	1.34

I take solace in the fact that my overall 4.44 ERA was less than the 4.51 MLB average ERA. I do not take solace in the fact that it is a crappy ERA to have on your fantasy team. For example, the team with the worst ERA had 4.387 in my TGFBI league.

Here are some pitchers that ended 2019 with a higher ERA and WHIP than I did:

Jon Lester – 4.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP
Jose Quintana – 4.68 ERA and 1.39 WHIP
Ivan Nova – 4.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP
Martin Perez – 5.12 ERA and 1.52 WHIP
Rick Porcello – 5.52 ERA and 1.39 WHIP

The point I am trying to make is that I, too, had a disappointing year.

Most Frequent Opponent

The team I picked on the most was the San Francisco Giants. In the 10 games I told you to stream against them I posted a 4.96 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 55 strikeouts and a 3-5 record. Awful.

The team I had the most success picking on was the Chicago White Sox. Unfortunately, I only suggested streaming against them 6 times for a 2.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 29 strikeouts with a 5-0 record.

Most Frequent Pitchers Recommended

Here are the pitchers I suggested streaming more than 3 times this season:

Anibal Sanchez: 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3 wins and 17 strikeouts in 5 starts.
Dinelson Lamet: 1.96 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 1 win and 33 strikeouts in 4 starts.
Tommy Milone: 3.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3 wins and 20 strikeouts in 4 starts.
Spencer Turnbull: 6.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 0 wins and 20 strikeouts in 4 starts.

All four combined: 3.94 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7 wins and 90 strikeouts in 17 starts. That’s roughly 17 Zach Wheeler starts.

My Best Calls

Dinelson Lamet (8/6 @ SEA): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 4 BB, 12 K and 1 win.
Mike Soroka (5/4 @ MIA): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K and 1 win.
Wade Miley (6/9 vs BAL): 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K and 1 win.
Jake Odorizzi (5/10) vs DET): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K and 1 win.
Jeff Samardzija (7/7 vs STL): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 2 K and 1 win.

My Worst Calls

Merrill Kelly (7/23 vs BAL): 2.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K and 1 loss.
Griffin Canning (7/25 vs BAL): 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.
Framber Valdez (6/26 vs PIT): 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.
Brendan McKay (8/19 vs SEA): 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 1 K and 1 loss.
Erik Swanson (4/28 vs TEX): 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 11 H, 0 BB, 2 K and 1 loss.

How Can I Get Better?

There is no other way to say this. I took a big step back in 2019 from 2018, where I put up a 3.64 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 388 strikeouts and 31 wins in 71 starts.

What happened this season?

I suggested more pitchers to stream (89 in 2019 compared to 71 in 2018). That’s more Russian roulette trigger pulls. So, maybe in 2020, less reaching each week for suggestions?

Another factor to consider is home starts versus road starts. Home/road splits are considered in my analysis but numbers don’t lie:

H/A	G	IP	ER	H	BB	K	W-L	ERA	WHIP
Home	52	275.33	134	280	74	232	19 – 16	4.38	1.29
Away	37	186.67	94	192	73	193	14 – 11	4.53	1.42
Total	89	462.00	228	472	147	425	33 – 27	4.44	1.34

I just might have to seriously consider only suggesting road starts if it is an overwhelming advantage for the pitcher. Something to think about in the off season.

Well, that closes the book on Straight Cheese for 2019. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and I look forward to improving on my suggestions in 2020!

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