Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 25

This is my weekly column where I suggest streaming low owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor next week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on someone’s roster, hopefully yours.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 25

My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% because they tend to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Friday, September 6.

RHP Joe Musgrove, PIT
Owned Y40%|E52% · @ San Francisco Giants – Wednesday, September 11

Musgrove carries a 4.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and struck out 20.8% of batters faced in his 28 starts this season. What I found interesting was that Joe’s home/road splits are nearly identical except for ERA:

• Home – 5.35 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and a 20.9 K% in 77.1 innings
• Road – 3.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and a 20.7 K% in 77.0 innings

I’m not sure why this is. Maybe the pressure of pitching for the fans? I don’t get it and, frankly, I don’t care why this is happening. He’s taking this favorable road split into San Francisco. The Giants have the following numbers at home versus right-handed pitchers:

• 0.269 wOBA (Worst in MLB), 0.132 ISO (2^nd worst) and a 24.7 K% (7^th worst)
• Opposing SP have put up a 2.89 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 48 starts

So we have a pitcher who is performing slightly above average when on the road facing a team that struggles at home. A match up like this is why I write this article.

RHP Zach Davies, MIL
Owned Y29%|E29% · @ Miami Marlins – Wednesday, September 11

Davies has a 3.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 5.7 K/9 and has struck out only 15.0% of the batters he’s faced in his 26 starts. Much like Musgrove above, Zach is a “road warrior.” See for yourself:

• Home – 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and a 14.3 K% in 60.0 innings
• Road – 2.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and a 15.5 K% in 76.1 innings

Yeah, the strikeouts aren’t there… home or away. Next week he is aligned to get a road start against the Marlins who struggle in Marlins Park. Here are their numbers versus RHP at home:

• 0.289 wOBA (3^rd worst in MLB), 0.121 ISO (MLB worst) and a 25.2 K% (5^th worst)
• Opposing SP have put up a 3.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 53 starts

This is a sneaky good match up for Davies. He’s not going to get you the K’s but he should help your ratios.

RHP Sandy Alcantara, MIA
Owned Y17%|E11% · @ San Francisco Giants – Friday, September 13

Remember all that good stuff I pointed out above about San Francisco struggling facing RHP at home? Here it is again:

• 0.269 wOBA (Worst in MLB), 0.132 ISO (2^nd worst) and a 24.7 K% (7^th worst)
• Opposing SP have put up a 2.89 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 in 48 starts

That is the main reason I am suggesting rolling out a Marlins pitcher next week. Alcantara has made 27 starts and is sporting a 4.26 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and has struck out 17.7% of batters faced. Like Musgrove and Davies before him, Sandy can also be classified as a “road warrior”.

• Home – 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and a 19.8 K% in 86.2 innings
• Road – 3.79 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and a 15.3 K% in 76.0 innings

While his ERA is lower on the road, just about every other metric is worse. I’m not sure I know what to do with that. I’m going to trust my gut and stream him against the Giants and hope that their low wOBA and ISO keep Alcantara from blowing up.

Extra Cheese

Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.

RHP Jordan Lyles, MIL
Owned Y36%|E22% – @ Marlins (Mon Sep 9) & @ Cardinals (Sat Sep 14)

On the season, Lyles has a 4.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 and has struck out 24.1% of batters faced in his 24 starts. He’s been a different pitcher since being traded to the Brewers on July 29^th .

• Pittsburgh – 5.36 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and a 24.9 K% in 17 starts
• Milwaukee – 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and a 22.2 K% in 7 starts

The Brewers fans that questioned this trade were proven wrong by his performance and Pirates fans have to be wondering why they are cursed with bad pitching. They are currently bottom six in both ERA and WHIP from starting pitchers.

Enough about that, you’re here to get my recommendation for a two-start pitcher next week. Lyles has one really good and one good match up next week.

• Marlins numbers against RHP at home
  • 0.289 wOBA (3^rd worst in MLB), 0.121 ISO (MLB worst) and a 25.2 K% (5^th worst)
  • Opposing SP have put up a 3.49 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 53 starts
• Cardinals numbers against RHP at home
  • 0.316 wOBA (12^th worst in MLB), 0.148 (6^th worst) and a 20.6 K% (10^th best)
    Opposing SP have put up a 4.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 55 games

While the game against St. Louis isn’t as favorable as the Marlins match up, both should prove to be usable to us as an all important two start pitcher.

Evaluating Streaming Starting Pitchers Suggested in Week 23

Let’s look back at my previous recommendations for starting pitchers to stream back in Week 23. Note we have to look back two weeks since last week’s Straight Cheese is for the current week. Got it? Good.

I mentioned that the Royals may limit Keller’s innings down the stretch. They ended up shutting him down for the season. Both Lamet and Sanchez came through for us, though.

Here’s a look back at the two-start pitcher I recommended back in Week 23.

Yeah, baby. Just when I thought I had lost my two-start mojo with the utterly disastrous Brendan McKay back-to-back recommendations, Pineda comes through big time.

Here’s a monthly breakdown of all the pitchers I recommended this season (both one start and two starts).

So far so good in September. I still have a lot of work to get that overall ERA down below the 4.53 MLB average ERA.