Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 9, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Lyles (MIL)
- My Value Pick tonight is also Lyles (MIL) taking on the Marlins in Miami (also wrote about this match up in last week’s Straight Cheese!)
- Righty SP facing Marlins in Miami have averaged
- 33.7 FanDuel ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 26.0 ppg)
- 18.5 DraftKings ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.4 ppg)
- Miami vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.289 wOBA (3rd worst in MLB)
- 0.120 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 25.1 K% (5th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP facing Marlins in Miami have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Yankees & Indians
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Dugger (MIA)
DFS Pitchers – September 9, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Jordan Lyles MIL | @ MIA | $8,400 | 115 | 36.79 | $8,200 | 118 | 20.44 |
| Madison Bumgarner SFG | vs PIT | $9,000 | 106 | 35.14 | $9,200 | 105 | 18.94 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | vs ARI | $10,600 | 103 | 32.35 | $11,200 | 103 | 17.30 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @ SDP | $8,500 | 107 | 31.85 | $8,800 | 109 | 17.32 |
| Aaron Nola PHI | vs ATL | $9,800 | 104 | 32.18 | $10,400 | 104 | 16.87 |
| Trevor Williams PIT | @ SFG | $8,000 | 107 | 31.34 | $6,300 | 110 | 17.04 |
| Zack Greinke HOU | vs OAK | $9,600 | 99 | 29.56 | $8,400 | 99 | 15.65 |
| Shane Bieber CLE | @ LAA | $11,300 | 97 | 28.73 | $11,700 | 95 | 15.23 |
| Robert Dugger MIA | vs MIL | $6,900 | 104 | 28.60 | $5,500 | 104 | 14.73 |
| James Paxton NYY | @ BOS | $9,400 | 92 | 26.98 | $10,800 | 91 | 14.15 |
| Cal Quantrill SDP | vs CHC | $6,400 | 101 | 26.04 | $6,700 | 101 | 13.82 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ATL | @ PHI | $7,300 | 99 | 25.77 | $7,500 | 99 | 13.09 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | vs NYY | $8,300 | 92 | 25.70 | $9,500 | 90 | 12.94 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | @ NYM | $7,500 | 100 | 25.09 | $6,000 | 99 | 12.45 |
| Patrick Sandoval LAA | vs CLE | $5,700 | 100 | 22.98 | $7,200 | 100 | 11.48 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | @ HOU | $7,400 | 89 | 19.62 | $7,800 | 85 | 8.97 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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