Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 6, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Kershaw (LAD)
- My Value Pick tonight is Bailey (KCR) at home taking on the Tigers (also wrote about this in last week’s Straight Cheese!)
- Righty SP at home facing Detroit have averaged
- Detroit vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.291 wOBA (4th worst in MLB)
- 0.165 ISO (6th worst in MLB)
- 27.3 K% (Worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Yankees & Dodgers
- Followers (**) Milone (SEA) will be following an opener
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Melville (COL)
- McRae (PIT)
- Burke (TEX)
DFS Pitchers – September 6, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | vs SFG | $11,700 | 108 | 39.24 | $11,900 | 110 | 22.18 |
| Homer Bailey OAK | vs DET | $8,200 | 113 | 34.62 | $8,500 | 116 | 19.25 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | @ ATL | $10,900 | 100 | 34.09 | $10,800 | 100 | 18.30 |
| Jorge Lopez KCR | @ MIA | $6,000 | 115 | 32.32 | $5,300 | 118 | 17.87 |
| Pablo Lopez MIA | vs KCR | $6,700 | 108 | 32.70 | $6,300 | 109 | 17.65 |
| Dinelson Lamet SDP | vs COL | $8,400 | 107 | 31.88 | $10,300 | 107 | 17.51 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @ CIN | $8,800 | 102 | 31.36 | $10,500 | 102 | 17.06 |
| Tim Melville COL | @ SDP | $6,200 | 108 | 31.03 | $6,400 | 110 | 16.80 |
| Lucas Giolito CHW | vs LAA | $10,600 | 99 | 30.38 | $12,100 | 98 | 16.52 |
| Steven Matz NYM | vs PHI | $8,100 | 106 | 30.38 | $7,600 | 107 | 16.15 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | @ MIL | $7,700 | 102 | 29.89 | $8,800 | 103 | 15.80 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs TEX | $7,500 | 103 | 29.37 | $7,300 | 105 | 15.80 |
| Brendan McKay TBR | vs TOR | $7,100 | 103 | 28.64 | $7,800 | 105 | 15.37 |
| Alex McRae PIT | vs STL | $5,500 | 102 | 28.15 | $4,000 | 103 | 15.46 |
| Brock Burke TEX | @ BAL | $7,200 | 103 | 28.69 | $7,100 | 104 | 14.99 |
| Michael Pineda MIN | vs CLE | $9,300 | 99 | 28.34 | $10,000 | 99 | 14.92 |
| Dillon Peters LAA | @ CHW | $6,800 | 106 | 27.87 | $5,400 | 107 | 13.97 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | vs WSN | $8,000 | 99 | 27.64 | $9,300 | 98 | 13.81 |
| Zach Davies MIL | vs CHC | $5,800 | 98 | 25.22 | $5,800 | 98 | 13.07 |
| Tyler Mahle CIN | vs ARI | $6,400 | 98 | 25.07 | $6,200 | 97 | 12.90 |
| Zach Eflin PHI | @ NYM | $6,400 | 100 | 24.27 | $6,600 | 99 | 12.01 |
| Clay Buchholz TOR | @ TBR | $6,100 | 98 | 23.64 | $6,500 | 99 | 12.31 |
| Miles Mikolas STL | @ PIT | $6,300 | 96 | 23.14 | $8,000 | 95 | 11.31 |
| Domingo German NYY | @ BOS | $9,000 | 88 | 21.42 | $9,700 | 87 | 10.73 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | @ LAD | $6,500 | 92 | 21.48 | $8,300 | 90 | 10.59 |
| Spencer Turnbull DET | @ OAK | $5,500 | 96 | 21.55 | $5,600 | 95 | 10.52 |
| Framber Valdez HOU | vs SEA | $6,600 | 101 | 21.18 | $6,900 | 101 | 10.46 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | @ MIN | $7,400 | 90 | 20.50 | $6,700 | 88 | 9.83 |
| Jhoulys Chacin BOS | vs NYY | $5,800 | 89 | 18.93 | $4,700 | 88 | 8.95 |
| ** Tommy Milone SEA | @ HOU | $5,900 | 87 | 15.94 | $7,400 | 84 | 7.45 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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