Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 3, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Keller (PIT)
- My Value Pick tonight is also Keller (PIT) at home taking on the Marlins
- Righty SP at home facing Miami have averaged
- Miami vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.274 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.129 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 25.7 K% (4th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Twins & Red Sox
- Followers (**) None tonight but Toronto is having a bullpen day
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Bolanos (SDP) making 2019 debut
- Dobnak (MIN)
DFS Pitchers – September 3, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Mitch Keller PIT | vs MIA | $8,000 | 117 | 41.36 | $7,200 | 121 | 23.99 |
| Mike Clevinger CLE | vs CHW | $12,000 | 114 | 39.93 | $12,200 | 116 | 22.47 |
| Max Scherzer WSN | vs NYM | $10,500 | 104 | 34.97 | $11,700 | 103 | 18.42 |
| Julio Urias LAD | vs COL | $6,700 | 108 | 30.79 | $6,400 | 108 | 17.05 |
| Zack Greinke HOU | @ MIL | $10,200 | 103 | 31.08 | $9,800 | 103 | 16.40 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | vs SDP | $6,000 | 105 | 29.15 | $6,600 | 106 | 15.42 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | @ WSN | $10,700 | 97 | 28.72 | $11,000 | 95 | 14.85 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | vs SFG | $10,000 | 102 | 27.65 | $10,500 | 103 | 14.82 |
| Jon Lester CHC | vs SEA | $7,100 | 99 | 27.68 | $8,400 | 99 | 14.02 |
| Daniel Norris DET | @ KCR | $5,600 | 102 | 24.87 | $6,700 | 103 | 13.09 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | vs LAA | $8,100 | 96 | 24.76 | $9,200 | 96 | 12.71 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ATL | vs TOR | $7,800 | 100 | 23.97 | $7,500 | 101 | 12.60 |
| Dylan Cease CHW | @ CLE | $5,700 | 95 | 24.02 | $6,300 | 95 | 12.18 |
| Ronald Bolanos SDP | @ ARI | – | 97 | 23.37 | $4,000 | 96 | 11.72 |
| Dereck Rodriguez SFG | @ STL | $6,300 | 100 | 23.02 | $5,000 | 100 | 11.56 |
| Sandy Alcantara MIA | @ PIT | $6,800 | 97 | 23.15 | $7,800 | 96 | 11.25 |
| Mike Montgomery KCR | vs DET | $7,300 | 110 | 21.87 | $4,300 | 112 | 11.20 |
| Jaime Barria LAA | @ OAK | $6,200 | 93 | 20.31 | $5,800 | 92 | 10.05 |
| Felix Hernandez SEA | @ CHC | $6,100 | 94 | 20.31 | $5,500 | 92 | 9.50 |
| Jordan Lyles MIL | vs HOU | $7,500 | 89 | 20.09 | $8,200 | 86 | 9.51 |
| Rick Porcello BOS | vs MIN | $6,600 | 87 | 18.97 | $6,100 | 84 | 8.68 |
| Randy Dobnak MIN | @ BOS | $5,500 | 89 | 17.41 | $4,000 | 87 | 8.08 |
| Chi Chi Gonzalez COL | @ LAD | $5,500 | 88 | 17.45 | $4,000 | 87 | 7.88 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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