Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 27, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Buehler (LAD)
- My Value Pick tonight is Velasquez (PHI) at home taking on the Marlins
- Righty SP at home facing Miami have averaged
- Miami vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.283 wOBA (Lowest in MLB)
- 0.140 ISO (Lowest in MLB)
- 25.2 K% (11th highest in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Yankees & Red Sox
- Followers (**) No followers tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Cueto (SF)
- Zeuch (TOR)
- Palumbo (TEX)
- Skoglund (KC)
DFS Pitchers – September 27, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Walker Buehler LAD | @ SFG | $10,200 | 111 | 36.91 | $11,700 | 113 | 21.04 |
| Vince Velasquez PHI | vs MIA | $7,600 | 114 | 35.84 | $6,200 | 117 | 20.73 |
| Tyler Glasnow TBR | @ TOR | $8,800 | 106 | 30.81 | $6,900 | 109 | 17.70 |
| Marcus Stroman NYM | vs ATL | $7,800 | 104 | 30.57 | $10,300 | 104 | 15.85 |
| James Paxton NYY | @ TEX | $9,800 | 97 | 27.89 | $11,200 | 97 | 14.74 |
| Taylor Clarke ARI | vs SDP | $5,600 | 102 | 27.27 | $4,500 | 104 | 14.87 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | @ NYM | $9,000 | 100 | 28.45 | $9,600 | 99 | 14.01 |
| Dakota Hudson STL | vs CHC | $7,900 | 101 | 27.61 | $8,100 | 101 | 14.27 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | @ SEA | $8,300 | 104 | 27.28 | $7,900 | 104 | 14.14 |
| Jose Berrios MIN | @ KCR | $9,600 | 101 | 27.61 | $10,800 | 101 | 13.86 |
| Austin Voth WSN | vs CLE | $7,600 | 99 | 26.56 | $9,000 | 98 | 13.94 |
| Pablo Lopez MIA | @ PHI | $6,800 | 101 | 26.23 | $7,600 | 101 | 13.43 |
| Alec Mills CHC | @ STL | $6,800 | 102 | 26.01 | $6,900 | 103 | 13.31 |
| Anthony DeSclafani CIN | @ PIT | $8,400 | 98 | 24.51 | $9,900 | 97 | 12.44 |
| Nathan Eovaldi BOS | vs BAL | $6,500 | 98 | 22.27 | $4,100 | 99 | 11.89 |
| Steven Brault PIT | vs CIN | $5,900 | 104 | 23.01 | $4,300 | 104 | 11.36 |
| Antonio Senzatela COL | vs MIL | $5,600 | 94 | 22.27 | $5,400 | 95 | 10.81 |
| Zach Plesac CLE | @ WSN | $7,400 | 93 | 21.82 | $8,500 | 91 | 10.65 |
| Johnny Cueto SFG | vs LAD | $6,700 | 96 | 21.36 | $9,300 | 96 | 10.80 |
| T.J. Zeuch TOR | vs TBR | $6,300 | 97 | 20.80 | $5,900 | 97 | 10.40 |
| Jose Urquidy HOU | @ LAA | $7,000 | 95 | 20.78 | $7,500 | 94 | 10.36 |
| Eric Lauer SDP | @ ARI | $7,700 | 94 | 20.82 | $7,200 | 94 | 10.24 |
| Justus Sheffield SEA | vs OAK | $6,900 | 95 | 20.09 | $8,700 | 94 | 9.84 |
| Zach Davies MIL | @ COL | $5,700 | 90 | 19.80 | $4,700 | 89 | 9.36 |
| Patrick Sandoval LAA | vs HOU | $5,500 | 87 | 17.89 | $6,700 | 84 | 8.34 |
| Asher Wojciechowski BAL | @ BOS | $6,000 | 88 | 17.33 | $5,200 | 86 | 8.13 |
| Joe Palumbo TEX | vs NYY | $5,500 | 85 | 16.35 | $5,400 | 84 | 7.74 |
| Eric Skoglund KCR | vs MIN | $5,500 | 89 | 16.80 | $5,600 | 86 | 7.21 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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