Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 25, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – deGrom (NYM)
- My Value Pick tonight is Stripling (LAD) taking on the Padres in San Diego. (I mentioned this match up in last week’s Straight Cheese)
- Righty SP facing the Padres in San Diego have averaged
- 30.1 FanDuel ppg (5th highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 25.8 ppg)
- 16.3 DraftKings ppg (5th highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.3 ppg)
- San Diego vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.290 wOBA (3rd lowest in MLB)
- 0.162 ISO (8th lowest in MLB)
- 26.4 K% (3rd highest in MLB)
- Righty SP facing the Padres in San Diego have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Indians & Nationals
- Followers (**) No followers tonight but Atlanta is going with a bullpen game vs. the Royals.
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- None tonight
DFS Pitchers – September 25, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Jacob deGrom NYM | vs MIA | $11,900 | 120 | 45.48 | $12,000 | 123 | 26.41 |
| Shane Bieber CLE | @ CHW | $11,500 | 114 | 41.47 | $11,800 | 116 | 23.30 |
| Tim Melville COL | @ SFG | $5,500 | 109 | 32.56 | $5,600 | 111 | 18.24 |
| Zack Greinke HOU | @ SEA | $9,400 | 105 | 31.47 | $10,400 | 106 | 16.86 |
| Ross Stripling LAD | @ SDP | $5,500 | 110 | 29.69 | $6,600 | 112 | 16.51 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | vs COL | $7,100 | 105 | 29.78 | $7,500 | 105 | 16.14 |
| Jon Lester CHC | @ PIT | $6,700 | 102 | 28.75 | $8,300 | 101 | 14.46 |
| Anibal Sanchez WSN | vs PHI | $7,400 | 103 | 27.35 | $9,200 | 103 | 14.34 |
| Charlie Morton TBR | vs NYY | $9,000 | 96 | 26.58 | $11,000 | 94 | 13.83 |
| Dario Agrazal PIT | vs CHC | $5,600 | 98 | 25.06 | $4,700 | 98 | 12.99 |
| Frankie Montas OAK | @ LAA | $9,000 | 97 | 25.09 | $10,100 | 96 | 12.81 |
| Jacob Waguespack TOR | vs BAL | $6,100 | 99 | 23.76 | $6,200 | 100 | 12.63 |
| Robert Dugger MIA | @ NYM | $6,300 | 100 | 24.54 | $7,700 | 99 | 12.07 |
| Dinelson Lamet SDP | vs LAD | $8,300 | 98 | 23.84 | $10,000 | 97 | 12.30 |
| Jonathan Loaisiga NYY | @ TBR | $6,200 | 100 | 23.57 | $8,400 | 100 | 12.37 |
| Andrew Heaney LAA | vs OAK | $7,200 | 95 | 22.73 | $9,400 | 94 | 11.68 |
| Gabriel Ynoa BAL | @ TOR | $5,800 | 98 | 21.49 | $4,000 | 100 | 11.89 |
| Rick Porcello BOS | @ TEX | $6,900 | 94 | 20.63 | $7,200 | 94 | 9.83 |
| Kolby Allard TEX | vs BOS | $6,400 | 92 | 20.13 | $7,400 | 91 | 9.64 |
| Mike Montgomery KCR | vs ATL | $5,600 | 99 | 17.97 | $4,400 | 99 | 8.85 |
| Drew Smyly PHI | @ WSN | $6,800 | 88 | 17.66 | $6,600 | 87 | 8.09 |
| Yusei Kikuchi SEA | vs HOU | $5,500 | 85 | 16.84 | $5,200 | 81 | 7.32 |
| Ross Detwiler CHW | vs CLE | $5,500 | 93 | 16.54 | $5,900 | 93 | 7.37 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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