Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 24, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Clevinger (CLE)
- My Value Pick tonight is Syndergaard (NYM) at home taking on the Marlins
- Righty SP at home facing Miami have averaged
- Miami vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.284 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.136 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 24.8 K% (11th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Indians & A’s
- Followers (**) Milone (SEA) will be following an opener
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Kay (TOR)
- Volquez (TEX)
- Bolanos (SD)
DFS Pitchers – September 24, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Mike Clevinger CLE | @ CHW | $11,600 | 115 | 41.06 | $11,800 | 116 | 23.03 |
| Noah Syndergaard NYM | vs MIA | $8,200 | 117 | 40.26 | $9,000 | 120 | 22.89 |
| Gerrit Cole HOU | @ SEA | $12,300 | 107 | 38.81 | $13,000 | 107 | 21.68 |
| Madison Bumgarner SFG | vs COL | $8,600 | 108 | 36.02 | $8,200 | 108 | 19.41 |
| Max Scherzer WSN | vs PHI | $10,600 | 106 | 35.40 | $11,000 | 106 | 19.47 |
| Jeff Hoffman COL | @ SFG | $6,500 | 107 | 31.15 | $4,800 | 109 | 17.33 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | @ ARI | $11,000 | 101 | 30.15 | $9,800 | 101 | 16.18 |
| Rich Hill LAD | @ SDP | $5,000 | 108 | 30.00 | $9,200 | 110 | 15.75 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | @ TEX | $9,700 | 97 | 28.80 | $10,400 | 98 | 15.09 |
| Mike Leake ARI | vs STL | $8,000 | 100 | 27.52 | $7,200 | 102 | 14.57 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | @ TOR | $7,800 | 101 | 26.89 | $7,400 | 103 | 14.77 |
| Anthony Kay TOR | vs BAL | $6,300 | 104 | 27.54 | $6,900 | 104 | 14.15 |
| Mitch Keller PIT | vs CHC | $6,100 | 101 | 26.61 | $7,100 | 100 | 13.93 |
| Danny Duffy KCR | vs ATL | $7,900 | 100 | 27.12 | $7,900 | 99 | 13.45 |
| Aaron Nola PHI | @ WSN | $8,900 | 94 | 26.05 | $9,500 | 93 | 13.02 |
| Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @ TBR | $8,500 | 99 | 25.31 | $7,700 | 99 | 13.17 |
| Sandy Alcantara MIA | @ NYM | $7,300 | 101 | 25.78 | $8,100 | 100 | 12.79 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | @ KCR | $8,400 | 101 | 25.63 | $7,500 | 101 | 12.79 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @ PIT | $8,700 | 98 | 25.21 | $8,800 | 97 | 12.71 |
| Homer Bailey OAK | @ LAA | $8,500 | 95 | 22.50 | $8,400 | 95 | 11.26 |
| Edinson Volquez TEX | vs BOS | $5,500 | 92 | 21.47 | $6,900 | 91 | 10.83 |
| Yonny Chirinos TBR | vs NYY | $7,600 | 93 | 21.01 | $8,600 | 91 | 10.55 |
| Ronald Bolanos SDP | vs LAD | $6,000 | 94 | 20.37 | $6,700 | 93 | 10.13 |
| ** Tommy Milone SEA | vs HOU | $5,800 | 86 | 17.94 | $7,400 | 83 | 8.95 |
| Dillon Peters LAA | vs OAK | $5,600 | 92 | 17.92 | $4,200 | 91 | 8.55 |
| Hector Santiago CHW | vs CLE | $5,500 | 96 | 17.43 | $5,900 | 95 | 8.12 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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