Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 18, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Cole (HOU)
- My Value Pick tonight is Civale (CLE) in Detroit taking on the Tigers
- Righty SP facing the Tigers in Detroit have averaged
- Detroit vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.287 wOBA (2nd worst in MLB)
- 0.139 ISO (3rd worst in MLB)
- 25.8 K% (4th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Red Sox & Twins
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- None tonight
DFS Pitchers – September 18, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Gerrit Cole HOU | vs TEX | $12,100 | 109 | 41.49 | $12,800 | 110 | 23.59 |
| Aaron Civale CLE | @ DET | $8,500 | 114 | 39.05 | $9,100 | 117 | 21.72 |
| Jake Odorizzi MIN | vs CHW | $9,300 | 112 | 36.17 | $10,600 | 113 | 20.08 |
| Adrian Houser MIL | vs SDP | $6,500 | 108 | 28.47 | $5,300 | 109 | 15.62 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | vs PHI | $8,900 | 104 | 28.69 | $8,500 | 104 | 14.92 |
| Dinelson Lamet SDP | @ MIL | $8,000 | 103 | 28.25 | $9,400 | 104 | 14.86 |
| Jon Lester CHC | vs CIN | $7,200 | 102 | 28.00 | $8,200 | 103 | 13.98 |
| Spencer Turnbull DET | vs CLE | $5,600 | 100 | 26.45 | $4,500 | 100 | 13.56 |
| Tommy Milone SEA | @ PIT | $5,800 | 102 | 25.24 | $7,400 | 102 | 13.61 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs TOR | $7,400 | 101 | 24.68 | $7,700 | 102 | 13.13 |
| Brendan McKay TBR | @ LAD | $6,000 | 98 | 23.83 | $7,500 | 98 | 12.32 |
| Zach Eflin PHI | @ ATL | $7,000 | 97 | 23.33 | $7,300 | 96 | 11.51 |
| Dario Agrazal PIT | vs SEA | $5,700 | 97 | 22.25 | $4,900 | 97 | 11.59 |
| Tony Gonsolin LAD | vs TBR | $6,600 | 99 | 21.89 | $8,700 | 99 | 11.15 |
| Clay Buchholz TOR | @ BAL | $5,900 | 96 | 21.88 | $5,800 | 96 | 11.11 |
| Jhoulys Chacin BOS | vs SFG | $5,500 | 97 | 21.50 | $6,200 | 99 | 11.04 |
| Tyler Mahle CIN | @ CHC | $6,400 | 95 | 21.49 | $7,100 | 94 | 10.30 |
| Ivan Nova CHW | @ MIN | $6,500 | 91 | 20.79 | $5,000 | 89 | 9.74 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | @ BOS | $6,300 | 89 | 19.68 | $6,500 | 87 | 9.69 |
| Kolby Allard TEX | @ HOU | $7,300 | 90 | 17.47 | $6,800 | 87 | 7.51 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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