Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 17, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Verlander (HOU)
- My Value Pick tonight is Plutko (CLE) in Detroit taking on the Tigers
- Righty SP facing the Tigers in Detroit have averaged
- Detroit vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.287 wOBA (2nd worst in MLB)
- 0.139 ISO (3rd worst in MLB)
- 25.8 K% (4th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Twins, Red Sox & Astros
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Shepherd (BAL)
DFS Pitchers – September 17, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Justin Verlander HOU | vs TEX | $12,000 | 107 | 39.82 | $12,800 | 108 | 22.84 |
| Alex Young ARI | vs MIA | $8,200 | 113 | 36.50 | $8,700 | 116 | 20.34 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | @ DET | $7,800 | 111 | 35.28 | $7,700 | 113 | 19.37 |
| Brandon Woodruff MIL | vs SDP | $10,100 | 109 | 34.30 | $10,000 | 111 | 18.86 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | @ STL | $9,700 | 103 | 33.89 | $10,800 | 103 | 18.48 |
| Yu Darvish CHC | vs CIN | $10,400 | 105 | 32.91 | $11,200 | 106 | 17.92 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | vs PHI | $8,900 | 104 | 33.09 | $9,400 | 104 | 17.32 |
| Chris Paddack SDP | @ MIL | $8,700 | 102 | 28.57 | $10,200 | 102 | 15.27 |
| Blake Snell TBR | @ LAD | $7,100 | 101 | 28.78 | $9,400 | 100 | 15.10 |
| Martin Perez MIN | vs CHW | $7,000 | 107 | 27.93 | $5,900 | 108 | 14.32 |
| Marco Gonzales SEA | @ PIT | $7,300 | 101 | 27.73 | $6,300 | 100 | 13.85 |
| Spencer Turnbull DET | vs CLE | $5,500 | 100 | 26.49 | $4,500 | 100 | 13.58 |
| Sonny Gray CIN | @ CHC | $10,100 | 98 | 26.00 | $9,900 | 96 | 13.16 |
| Brett Anderson OAK | vs KCR | $6,500 | 104 | 26.28 | $5,300 | 105 | 12.99 |
| Caleb Smith MIA | @ ARI | $7,600 | 94 | 24.80 | $8,500 | 93 | 13.09 |
| Chandler Shepherd BAL | vs TOR | $5,500 | 103 | 24.46 | $5,700 | 105 | 13.21 |
| Tim Melville COL | vs NYM | $5,500 | 94 | 24.64 | $5,100 | 93 | 12.11 |
| Miles Mikolas STL | vs WSN | $7,200 | 98 | 24.08 | $7,900 | 97 | 12.11 |
| Mitch Keller PIT | vs SEA | $5,800 | 99 | 23.40 | $8,100 | 99 | 12.35 |
| Trent Thornton TOR | @ BAL | $6,800 | 98 | 23.52 | $7,100 | 99 | 12.03 |
| Lance Lynn TEX | @ HOU | $9,200 | 90 | 23.70 | $9,700 | 86 | 11.32 |
| Marcus Stroman NYM | @ COL | $6,700 | 91 | 22.62 | $7,100 | 89 | 10.75 |
| Nathan Eovaldi BOS | vs SFG | $6,600 | 97 | 20.99 | $7,200 | 98 | 10.97 |
| Vince Velasquez PHI | @ ATL | $6,300 | 97 | 21.53 | $6,100 | 96 | 10.67 |
| Ross Stripling LAD | vs TBR | $5,500 | 99 | 19.87 | $6,600 | 99 | 10.16 |
| Jorge Lopez KCR | @ OAK | $6,200 | 94 | 17.49 | $4,700 | 93 | 8.39 |
| Logan Webb SFG | @ BOS | $5,600 | 88 | 16.77 | $6,900 | 87 | 7.68 |
| Ross Detwiler CHW | @ MIN | $5,700 | 83 | 13.27 | $8,300 | 81 | 5.49 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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