Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 16, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Ray (ARI)
- My Value Pick tonight is also Berios (MIN) at home taking on the White Sox (only on FanDuel, though)
- Righty SP at home facing the White Sox have averaged
- 32.7 FanDuel ppg (3rd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 25.9 ppg)
- 17.7 DraftKings ppg (3rd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.3 ppg)
- White Sox vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.299 wOBA (5th worst in MLB)
- 0.144 ISO (2nd worst in MLB)
- 25.9 K% (4th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP at home facing the White Sox have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Rockies & Cubs
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Richards (SD) making his 2019 debut
DFS Pitchers – September 16, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Robbie Ray ARI | vs MIA | $9,200 | 113 | 38.28 | $9,800 | 116 | 21.34 |
| Jose Berrios MIN | vs CHW | $8,500 | 111 | 36.93 | $10,200 | 113 | 20.03 |
| Tanner Roark OAK | vs KCR | $7,900 | 107 | 32.81 | $9,300 | 108 | 17.80 |
| Stephen Strasburg WSN | @ STL | $10,400 | 104 | 32.56 | $11,800 | 104 | 17.32 |
| Zach Davies MIL | vs SDP | $6,800 | 104 | 28.58 | $6,100 | 106 | 15.27 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | vs CIN | $7,600 | 104 | 28.53 | $8,700 | 105 | 14.49 |
| Garrett Richards SDP | @ MIL | $5,500 | 101 | 26.72 | $7,600 | 101 | 13.68 |
| Pablo Lopez MIA | @ ARI | $6,700 | 99 | 24.87 | $5,500 | 98 | 12.77 |
| Dakota Hudson STL | vs WSN | $8,600 | 97 | 24.30 | $8,100 | 96 | 12.07 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | @ MIN | $7,800 | 93 | 22.49 | $6,800 | 91 | 10.80 |
| Antonio Senzatela COL | vs NYM | $5,800 | 93 | 22.10 | $4,500 | 92 | 10.30 |
| Steven Matz NYM | @ COL | $6,900 | 87 | 19.81 | $7,200 | 86 | 9.37 |
| Kevin Gausman CIN | @ CHC | $5,700 | 95 | 19.40 | $8,300 | 94 | 9.10 |
| Glenn Sparkman KCR | @ OAK | $5,700 | 91 | 17.35 | $4,900 | 90 | 8.13 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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