Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 13, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Beede (SFG)
- My Value Pick tonight is also Beede (SFG) at home taking on the Marlins
- Righty SP at home facing Miami have averaged
- Miami vs. RHP on the road have a:
- 0.280 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.133 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 25.5 K% (7th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Twins, Astros & Rockies
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Burke (TEX)
- Kay (TOR)
DFS Pitchers – September 13, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Tyler Beede SFG | vs MIA | $5,700 | 115 | 37.02 | $6,300 | 118 | 20.98 |
| Max Scherzer WSN | vs ATL | $10,400 | 105 | 35.73 | $11,400 | 104 | 19.32 |
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | @ NYM | $10,800 | 102 | 35.13 | $10,800 | 101 | 18.62 |
| Gerrit Cole HOU | @ KCR | $12,000 | 104 | 34.15 | $12,200 | 103 | 18.44 |
| Aaron Brooks BAL | @ DET | $5,800 | 111 | 33.79 | $4,300 | 114 | 18.61 |
| Sandy Alcantara MIA | @ SFG | $7,400 | 109 | 31.97 | $8,100 | 111 | 17.54 |
| Luis Castillo CIN | @ ARI | $10,600 | 100 | 30.32 | $10,200 | 100 | 16.02 |
| Mike Leake ARI | vs CIN | $6,900 | 102 | 28.99 | $6,600 | 103 | 14.98 |
| Jeff Hoffman COL | vs SDP | $5,700 | 98 | 28.20 | $5,000 | 100 | 15.31 |
| Andrew Heaney LAA | vs TBR | $8,400 | 101 | 28.94 | $9,900 | 101 | 14.85 |
| Jake Odorizzi MIN | @ CLE | $8,900 | 100 | 28.23 | $9,000 | 100 | 15.10 |
| Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @ TOR | $8,300 | 100 | 27.48 | $7,500 | 102 | 15.13 |
| Charlie Morton TBR | @ LAA | $9,600 | 98 | 27.85 | $10,600 | 97 | 14.69 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | vs MIL | $7,600 | 103 | 28.15 | $7,800 | 103 | 14.40 |
| Yusei Kikuchi SEA | vs CHW | $6,100 | 107 | 26.88 | $5,400 | 108 | 13.72 |
| Noah Syndergaard NYM | vs LAD | $9,100 | 97 | 25.59 | $9,400 | 96 | 13.09 |
| Mike Soroka ATL | @ WSN | $8,000 | 96 | 25.06 | $8,700 | 94 | 12.42 |
| Chris Bassitt OAK | @ TEX | $8,200 | 96 | 24.01 | $8,400 | 96 | 12.08 |
| Adrian Houser MIL | @ STL | $6,400 | 102 | 23.81 | $5,700 | 102 | 12.17 |
| Jordan Zimmermann DET | vs BAL | $6,800 | 101 | 23.07 | $4,700 | 102 | 12.06 |
| Dylan Covey CHW | @ SEA | $5,500 | 101 | 22.70 | $4,000 | 102 | 11.51 |
| Joey Lucchesi SDP | @ COL | $6,500 | 91 | 22.50 | $7,300 | 90 | 11.25 |
| Brock Burke TEX | vs OAK | $6,300 | 92 | 20.56 | $5,200 | 92 | 10.19 |
| Danny Duffy KCR | vs HOU | $6,700 | 86 | 20.81 | $6,000 | 83 | 9.52 |
| Anthony Kay TOR | vs NYY | $5,900 | 91 | 20.04 | $6,800 | 90 | 9.70 |
| Aaron Civale CLE | vs MIN | $7,900 | 88 | 19.73 | $7,000 | 86 | 9.25 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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