Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – September 11, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Davies (MIL)
- My Value Pick tonight is also Davies (MIL) taking on the Marlins in Miami (also wrote about this match up in last week’s Straight Cheese!)
- Righty SP facing Marlins in Miami have averaged
- 33.1 FanDuel ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 26.0 ppg)
- 18.1 DraftKings ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.4 ppg)
- Miami vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.289 wOBA (3rd worst in MLB)
- 0.119 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 25.1 K% (6th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP facing Marlins in Miami have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Rockies & Indians
- Followers (**) Thornton (TOR) and Pruitt (TBR) will be following openers tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Poyner (BOS)
- Webb (SFG)
DFS Pitchers – September 11, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Zach Davies MIL | @ MIA | $6,900 | 115 | 34.22 | $6,700 | 117 | 18.79 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @ NYM | $9,000 | 104 | 33.33 | $11,000 | 103 | 17.84 |
| Bobby Poyner BOS | @ TOR | $5,500 | 101 | 31.02 | $4,000 | 104 | 17.62 |
| Sonny Gray CIN | @ SEA | $10,200 | 106 | 31.74 | $10,600 | 107 | 17.20 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | vs KCR | $8,600 | 105 | 31.52 | $9,800 | 106 | 16.77 |
| Dario Agrazal PIT | @ SFG | $5,600 | 106 | 30.28 | $5,300 | 108 | 16.63 |
| Chris Paddack SDP | vs CHC | $8,300 | 102 | 28.54 | $10,200 | 102 | 15.38 |
| Glenn Sparkman KCR | @ CHW | $5,900 | 107 | 28.74 | $4,400 | 109 | 15.21 |
| Stephen Strasburg WSN | @ MIN | $10,500 | 96 | 29.03 | $11,400 | 94 | 15.00 |
| Pablo Lopez MIA | vs MIL | $7,100 | 105 | 28.33 | $8,400 | 106 | 14.68 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | @ SDP | $8,100 | 106 | 28.58 | $9,200 | 107 | 14.40 |
| Zach Eflin PHI | vs ATL | $6,500 | 101 | 27.19 | $7,900 | 101 | 13.91 |
| Marco Gonzales SEA | vs CIN | $7,500 | 105 | 27.08 | $8,300 | 105 | 13.32 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | @ PHI | $8,700 | 97 | 26.85 | $9,500 | 97 | 13.20 |
| Jose Urquidy HOU | vs OAK | $7,400 | 97 | 24.82 | $7,000 | 97 | 12.85 |
| Steven Matz NYM | vs ARI | $8,000 | 99 | 24.76 | $8,500 | 98 | 12.38 |
| Martin Perez MIN | vs WSN | $7,000 | 98 | 24.61 | $7,600 | 97 | 12.15 |
| Antonio Senzatela COL | vs STL | $5,500 | 95 | 23.66 | $4,200 | 96 | 12.29 |
| John Means BAL | vs LAD | $7,300 | 95 | 23.53 | $8,600 | 94 | 12.28 |
| Logan Webb SFG | vs PIT | $6,300 | 99 | 23.96 | $8,000 | 98 | 11.73 |
| Ross Stripling LAD | @ BAL | $5,800 | 100 | 22.45 | $7,300 | 101 | 11.88 |
| ** Trent Thornton TOR | vs BOS | $6,200 | 94 | 21.66 | $7,100 | 93 | 10.57 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | @ LAA | $7,700 | 93 | 20.45 | $8,800 | 92 | 10.07 |
| ** Austin Pruitt TBR | @ TEX | $6,300 | 95 | 20.44 | $7,700 | 95 | 10.05 |
| Dakota Hudson STL | @ COL | $7,800 | 90 | 20.94 | $8,200 | 88 | 9.74 |
| Dillon Peters LAA | vs CLE | $6,800 | 97 | 20.09 | $5,600 | 97 | 9.51 |
| Ariel Jurado TEX | vs TBR | $5,700 | 93 | 18.79 | $6,000 | 93 | 9.21 |
| Brett Anderson OAK | @ HOU | $6,100 | 88 | 17.84 | $5,900 | 84 | 7.57 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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