Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – August 6, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Wheeler (NYM)
- My Value Pick tonight is Sanchez (WSN) facing the Giants in San Fran
- Righty SP facing the Giants in SF have averaged
- 31.3 FanDuel ppg (4th Highest in MLB – average SP is 26.3 ppg)
- 17.4 DraftKings ppg (4th Highest in MLB – average SP is 13.6 ppg)
- Giants vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.269 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.129 ISO (2nd worst in MLB)
- 24.6 K% (7th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP facing the Giants in SF have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Red Sox & Yankees
- Followers (**) Yankees are going with one but they have not announced who the “follower” will be.
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Verhagen (DET)
- Santiago (CHW)
- Menez (SFG)
- Noesi (MIA) – making 2019 debut
- Notes
- Yankees Bullpen Day? – The Yankees have announced they will go with an opener tonight but have not indicated who will be the “follower.”
- Marlins SP – Conflicting reports on who the starter will be for the Marlins tonight. Hector Noesi is listed by some as the starter and it will be his 2019 debut. Other sites have Yamamoto listed as the starter.
DFS Pitchers – August 6, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Zack Wheeler NYM | vs MIA | $10,700 | 118 | 41.37 | $10,600 | 121 | 23.66 |
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | vs STL | $11,300 | 103 | 35.49 | $11,800 | 104 | 19.28 |
| Drew Verhagen DET | vs CHW | $5,500 | 111 | 35.03 | $5,200 | 113 | 19.31 |
| Zack Greinke HOU | vs COL | $9,700 | 107 | 34.79 | $9,800 | 108 | 19.31 |
| Anibal Sanchez WSN | @ SFG | $7,700 | 108 | 32.22 | $8,000 | 111 | 17.84 |
| Jose Berrios MIN | vs ATL | $10,800 | 103 | 32.38 | $11,000 | 102 | 16.86 |
| Hector Santiago CHW | @ DET | $5,500 | 112 | 29.67 | $6,700 | 114 | 17.04 |
| Andrew Cashner BOS | vs KCR | $7,100 | 103 | 30.10 | $5,800 | 104 | 15.90 |
| Wade LeBlanc SEA | vs SDP | $6,200 | 106 | 29.25 | $5,600 | 108 | 15.87 |
| Zach Plesac CLE | vs TEX | $7,500 | 100 | 29.25 | $7,700 | 101 | 15.54 |
| Mike Leake ARI | vs PHI | $8,300 | 102 | 29.04 | $8,400 | 103 | 14.96 |
| Steven Brault PIT | vs MIL | $5,500 | 104 | 27.71 | $4,800 | 105 | 14.70 |
| Conner Menez SFG | vs WSN | $6,000 | 100 | 27.53 | $7,200 | 99 | 14.56 |
| Trent Thornton TOR | @ TBR | $6,300 | 103 | 26.84 | $5,400 | 103 | 13.92 |
| Jon Lester CHC | vs OAK | $8,500 | 95 | 25.63 | $8,200 | 95 | 13.19 |
| Anthony DeSclafani CIN | vs LAA | $7,900 | 95 | 24.08 | $8,300 | 95 | 12.76 |
| Dinelson Lamet SDP | @ SEA | $6,500 | 102 | 24.43 | $8,500 | 102 | 12.52 |
| Ryan Yarbrough TBR | vs TOR | $7,800 | 102 | 23.07 | $7,800 | 103 | 12.47 |
| German Marquez COL | @ HOU | $8,000 | 93 | 23.83 | $9,300 | 90 | 11.68 |
| Jake Arrieta PHI | @ ARI | $6,600 | 96 | 23.47 | $6,200 | 95 | 11.28 |
| Chase Anderson MIL | @ PIT | $6,900 | 98 | 22.64 | $6,000 | 98 | 11.55 |
| Jose Suarez LAA | @ CIN | $5,700 | 99 | 22.16 | $6,400 | 99 | 11.42 |
| Ariel Jurado TEX | @ CLE | $5,800 | 97 | 22.30 | $4,400 | 97 | 11.32 |
| Brett Anderson OAK | @ CHC | $6,700 | 97 | 23.06 | $5,900 | 97 | 10.88 |
| Miles Mikolas STL | @ LAD | $7,400 | 90 | 20.37 | $7,000 | 88 | 9.65 |
| Jakob Junis KCR | @ BOS | $7,300 | 88 | 19.92 | $6,900 | 87 | 9.50 |
| Asher Wojciechowski BAL | vs NYY | $7,200 | 91 | 19.92 | $6,600 | 89 | 9.38 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ATL | @ MIN | $7,000 | 86 | 16.77 | $6,400 | 83 | 7.37 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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