Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – August 27, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Castillo (CIN)
- My Value Pick tonight is Plutko (CLE) taking on the Tigers in Detroit
- Righty SP facing the Tigers in Detroit have averaged
- Detroit vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.283 wOBA (2nd worst in MLB)
- 0.137 ISO (3rd worst in MLB)
- 25.6 K% (4th worst in MLB)
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Rockies, A’s & Nationals
- Followers (**) Pannone (TOR) is following an opener
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Garcia (COL) is making 2019 debut
DFS Pitchers – August 27, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Luis Castillo CIN | @ MIA | $11,000 | 117 | 40.40 | $10,000 | 120 | 22.56 |
| Adam Plutko CLE | @ DET | $7,600 | 111 | 35.41 | $6,500 | 113 | 19.38 |
| Walker Buehler LAD | @ SDP | $11,600 | 109 | 34.90 | $11,000 | 110 | 19.35 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | vs BAL | $10,000 | 105 | 35.22 | $11,200 | 106 | 18.98 |
| Michael Pineda MIN | @ CHW | $9,200 | 111 | 34.84 | $7,800 | 113 | 19.02 |
| Justin Verlander HOU | vs TBR | $12,300 | 102 | 33.55 | $12,000 | 101 | 18.51 |
| Andrew Heaney LAA | vs TEX | $8,200 | 106 | 32.25 | $9,800 | 108 | 18.53 |
| Mike Soroka ATL | @ TOR | $8,800 | 104 | 31.33 | $9,300 | 106 | 17.41 |
| Caleb Smith MIA | vs CIN | $8,400 | 104 | 31.26 | $9,000 | 105 | 17.03 |
| Mike Minor TEX | @ LAA | $8,600 | 97 | 31.60 | $10,400 | 96 | 16.52 |
| Mike Leake ARI | @ SFG | $5,700 | 104 | 29.79 | $5,400 | 106 | 16.05 |
| Marcus Stroman NYM | vs CHC | $7,800 | 104 | 30.16 | $8,000 | 104 | 15.82 |
| Drew Smyly PHI | vs PIT | $5,900 | 100 | 27.50 | $4,600 | 100 | 14.41 |
| Yu Darvish CHC | @ NYM | $9,000 | 103 | 27.54 | $9,600 | 102 | 14.24 |
| Adrian Houser MIL | vs STL | $7,500 | 104 | 26.51 | $5,000 | 105 | 14.64 |
| Spencer Turnbull DET | vs CLE | $6,100 | 101 | 27.39 | $6,800 | 101 | 14.06 |
| Lucas Giolito CHW | vs MIN | $10,300 | 94 | 27.23 | $11,500 | 92 | 14.09 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | vs ARI | $7,000 | 99 | 26.24 | $8,300 | 99 | 13.72 |
| Charlie Morton TBR | @ HOU | $9,600 | 93 | 26.00 | $10,800 | 90 | 13.07 |
| Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @ SEA | $7,300 | 100 | 25.39 | $7,500 | 101 | 13.04 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | @ KCR | $8,000 | 100 | 24.62 | $8,500 | 100 | 12.19 |
| Miles Mikolas STL | @ MIL | $6,300 | 98 | 24.24 | $5,800 | 98 | 11.98 |
| Steven Brault PIT | @ PHI | $6,200 | 100 | 22.77 | $4,800 | 100 | 11.37 |
| Rico Garcia COL | vs BOS | – | 91 | 21.97 | $7,100 | 90 | 10.97 |
| Cal Quantrill SDP | vs LAD | $7,200 | 96 | 21.40 | $7,100 | 95 | 11.00 |
| Yusei Kikuchi SEA | vs NYY | $6,600 | 90 | 19.43 | $6,200 | 89 | 9.05 |
| ** Thomas Pannone TOR | vs ATL | $5,800 | 101 | 18.47 | $4,600 | 100 | 9.36 |
| Rick Porcello BOS | @ COL | $6,000 | 87 | 18.78 | $7,300 | 86 | 8.50 |
| Aaron Brooks BAL | @ WSN | $5,500 | 89 | 17.57 | $4,200 | 87 | 8.13 |
| Mike Montgomery KCR | vs OAK | $6,800 | 92 | 16.66 | $4,000 | 92 | 8.50 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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