Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – August 23, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Lynn (TEX)
- My Value Pick tonight is Velasquez (PHI) taking on the Marlins in Miami
- Righty SP facing the Marlins in Miami have averaged
- 33.7 FanDuel ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 26.2 ppg)
- 18.5 DraftKings ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.5 ppg)
- Miami vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.286 wOBA (3rd worst in MLB)
- 0.115 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 25.1 K% (5th worst in MLB)
- Righty SP facing the Marlins in Miami have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Astros, Twins & Diamondbacks
- Followers (**) None tonight
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Sheffield (SEA)
- Noesi (MIA)
- Blach (BAL)
DFS Pitchers – August 23, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Lance Lynn TEX | @ CHW | $9,700 | 113 | 40.46 | $10,500 | 115 | 22.33 |
| Jose Berrios MIN | vs DET | $8,800 | 113 | 38.87 | $10,000 | 116 | 21.89 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | vs ATL | $11,200 | 107 | 35.27 | $11,300 | 106 | 18.78 |
| Vince Velasquez PHI | @ MIA | $7,700 | 115 | 34.24 | $7,800 | 118 | 19.25 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | vs COL | $9,900 | 107 | 32.88 | $9,400 | 107 | 18.12 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD | vs NYY | $9,400 | 98 | 32.03 | $10,200 | 96 | 17.04 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez BOS | @ SDP | $8,500 | 106 | 31.38 | $9,200 | 107 | 16.31 |
| Zach Plesac CLE | vs KCR | $8,000 | 102 | 30.66 | $7,200 | 103 | 16.44 |
| Mitch Keller PIT | vs CIN | $6,600 | 104 | 31.03 | $6,600 | 105 | 16.23 |
| Justus Sheffield SEA | vs TOR | $7,400 | 104 | 30.10 | $5,700 | 105 | 16.15 |
| Dylan Cease CHW | vs TEX | $6,400 | 102 | 28.90 | $7,900 | 103 | 15.43 |
| Hector Noesi MIA | vs PHI | $5,500 | 105 | 28.74 | $5,200 | 105 | 15.10 |
| Zack Greinke HOU | vs LAA | $10,300 | 98 | 28.51 | $8,800 | 98 | 15.22 |
| Chris Paddack SDP | vs BOS | $7,600 | 99 | 27.01 | $8,600 | 98 | 14.33 |
| James Paxton NYY | @ LAD | $8,600 | 97 | 26.72 | $9,000 | 96 | 13.65 |
| Jakob Junis KCR | @ CLE | $7,900 | 98 | 26.75 | $7,100 | 98 | 13.61 |
| Ty Blach BAL | vs TBR | $5,700 | 99 | 25.73 | $5,000 | 99 | 12.42 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | @ MIL | $6,300 | 98 | 24.99 | $6,500 | 98 | 12.52 |
| Trent Thornton TOR | @ SEA | $6,000 | 102 | 24.69 | $6,200 | 103 | 12.46 |
| Jordan Lyles MIL | vs ARI | $7,100 | 95 | 24.08 | $7,000 | 94 | 12.13 |
| Anthony DeSclafani CIN | @ PIT | $7,200 | 98 | 23.68 | $6,800 | 98 | 12.03 |
| Trevor Richards TBR | @ BAL | $5,800 | 99 | 23.52 | $7,400 | 99 | 11.91 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ATL | @ NYM | $7,000 | 99 | 23.57 | $6,900 | 98 | 11.52 |
| Peter Lambert COL | @ STL | $6,100 | 100 | 19.15 | $4,500 | 101 | 9.34 |
| Drew Verhagen DET | @ MIN | $5,600 | 89 | 18.51 | $5,200 | 87 | 8.72 |
| Jose Suarez LAA | @ HOU | $5,700 | 86 | 14.91 | $4,900 | 83 | 6.28 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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