Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – August 20, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Kershaw (LAD)
- My Value Pick tonight is Young (ARI) taking on the Rockies in Arizona
- Lefty SP at home facing the Rockies have averaged
- 36.0 FanDuel ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 26.2 ppg)
- 19.8 DraftKings ppg (2nd highest in MLB – currently SP’s average 13.5 ppg)
- Colorado vs. LHP on the road have a:
- 0.295 wOBA (6th worst in MLB)
- 0.174 ISO (16th worst in MLB)
- 29.9 K% (Worst in MLB)
- Lefty SP at home facing the Rockies have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Diamondbacks & Astros
- Followers (**) Seattle @ Tampa will see openers from both teams.
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Burke (TEX) is making his 2019 debut tonight
DFS Pitchers – August 20, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | vs TOR | $12,200 | 107 | 38.28 | $12,000 | 109 | 21.25 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | vs MIA | $7,800 | 114 | 36.16 | $7,900 | 117 | 19.26 |
| Alex Young ARI | vs COL | $7,000 | 105 | 34.37 | $5,800 | 105 | 18.88 |
| Michael Pineda MIN | vs CHW | $9,400 | 110 | 34.39 | $8,900 | 112 | 18.83 |
| Sonny Gray CIN | vs SDP | $10,400 | 109 | 34.16 | $9,700 | 110 | 18.92 |
| Cole Hamels CHC | vs SFG | $7,300 | 107 | 32.44 | $7,800 | 109 | 17.93 |
| Aaron Sanchez HOU | vs DET | $8,500 | 113 | 31.90 | $6,800 | 116 | 17.23 |
| Shane Bieber CLE | @ NYM | $11,000 | 103 | 31.62 | $11,600 | 102 | 16.72 |
| Stephen Strasburg WSN | @ PIT | $10,000 | 102 | 30.40 | $10,400 | 101 | 16.04 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | vs KCR | $6,800 | 103 | 29.82 | $7,400 | 104 | 15.93 |
| ** Tommy Milone SEA | @ TBR | $5,900 | 105 | 29.16 | $7,800 | 106 | 16.03 |
| Brian Johnson BOS | vs PHI | $5,500 | 101 | 28.32 | $6,500 | 102 | 15.37 |
| Michael Wacha STL | vs MIL | $6,100 | 101 | 25.78 | $4,700 | 101 | 13.08 |
| Domingo German NYY | @ OAK | $9,900 | 96 | 25.33 | $10,800 | 96 | 13.18 |
| Cal Quantrill SDP | @ CIN | $7,600 | 100 | 24.89 | $7,300 | 100 | 12.99 |
| Brad Keller KCR | @ BAL | $8,000 | 99 | 25.05 | $7,500 | 99 | 12.46 |
| Chris Archer PIT | vs WSN | $8,700 | 97 | 24.39 | $9,300 | 97 | 12.33 |
| Steven Matz NYM | vs CLE | $8,200 | 102 | 24.17 | $6,900 | 101 | 11.90 |
| Gio Gonzalez MIL | @ STL | $7,200 | 101 | 22.57 | $8,100 | 102 | 12.37 |
| Aaron Nola PHI | @ BOS | $9,700 | 90 | 23.19 | $10,000 | 88 | 11.58 |
| ** Jalen Beeks TBR | vs SEA | $5,700 | 99 | 21.86 | $4,400 | 100 | 11.45 |
| Elieser Hernandez MIA | @ ATL | $6,300 | 95 | 22.25 | $5,500 | 94 | 10.85 |
| Brock Burke TEX | vs LAA | $5,500 | 93 | 21.16 | $7,200 | 92 | 10.44 |
| Tyler Beede SFG | @ CHC | $5,900 | 95 | 20.97 | $5,100 | 94 | 9.71 |
| Homer Bailey OAK | vs NYY | $7,100 | 93 | 20.46 | $7,100 | 91 | 9.59 |
| Jaime Barria LAA | @ TEX | $6,400 | 91 | 19.88 | $6,200 | 91 | 9.62 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | @ MIN | $7,400 | 90 | 20.39 | $7,000 | 87 | 9.36 |
| Spencer Turnbull DET | @ HOU | $6,000 | 92 | 20.19 | $7,700 | 89 | 9.26 |
| Sean Reid-Foley TOR | @ LAD | $5,800 | 92 | 19.27 | $8,300 | 90 | 9.02 |
| Kyle Freeland COL | @ ARI | $6,200 | 91 | 17.35 | $4,200 | 90 | 7.93 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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