This is my weekly column where I suggest low owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor in the coming week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on someone’s roster,
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 17
My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% because they tend to identify weak lineups and conversely for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.
All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday, July 11.
RHP Brad Keller, KC
Owned Y17%|E11% · vs. Chicago White Sox – Thursday, July 18
Keller is carrying a 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and striking out 15.9% of the batters he’s faced. That’s 77 strikeouts in 110.2 innings (6.26 K/9). He’s not striking people out enough, his WHIP is worse than the league average (1.33) and his ERA is a slight tick lower than the 4.48 league average. As a result, he’s not rostered in over 80% of leagues.
Here’s the thing. He’s a good… er,
Over the last two months, when on the road facing right-handed
Keller already faced the White Sox at home this season. In two starts he has a 1.20 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and 9 strikeouts in 15 innings (17.0 K% and 5.4 K/9). Stream him confidently if this matchup holds. If his start gets pushed back into the weekend series in Cleveland don’t bother starting him.
LHP CC Sabathia, NYY
Owned Y29%|E17% · vs. Colorado Rockies – Friday, July 19
CC currently has a 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and a 22.0 K% (71 strikeouts in 76 innings for an 8.41 K/9). Outside of the high WHIP he’s worth having on your roster. Like, Keller above, Sabathia is getting better results in home games. In 7 home starts he has a superb 2.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 25.8 K% (41 strikeouts in 39 innings for a 9.46 K/9).
Enter the Rockies.
Southpaw starting pitchers have a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 12.77 K/9 in 10 home
This matchup is very favorable for Sabathia and we need to take advantage.
RHP Tyler Mahle, CIN
Owned Y16%|E8% · vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Friday, July 19
Through 17 starts Mahle has a 4.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 92.2 innings. That’s a nice 9.62 K/9 and a 25.5 K%. Outside of that ugly ERA anyone would want the rest of those stats on their roster. His xFIP sits at 3.84 so there is hope that his ERA could come down over the rest of the season.
In a running theme this week, he also has better numbers in his seven home starts: 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 46 strikeouts in 37.1 innings. That’s a nice 11.09 K/9 and a 29.3 K%. We can work with that, right?
Let’s take a look at his opponent, the Cardinals.
Right-handed starters have put up a 2.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 7.96 K/9 in the 19 games at home versus the Cardinals since May 11. That goes hand in hand with the fact that vs. RHP on the road during the same time span they have a 0.281 wOBA (29th), 0.150 ISO (26th) and strikeout 24.0% of the time (20th).
This matchup is exactly what we’re looking for when we go dumpster diving for starting pitchers to stream.
Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.
LHP Eric Lauer, SD
Owned Y15%|E8% – @ Marlins (Tue Jul 16) & @ Cubs (Sun Jul 21)
Lauer has a 4.04 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 72 strikeouts in his first 17 starts of 2019. That’s a 7.09 K/9 and 18.5 K%. Understandable why he might be out on your waiver wire. He’s just okay when you look at his season numbers.
But you know and I know that you can’t just do that. You have to dig deeper.
Furthermore, over his last nine starts he has a 2.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 50.2 innings (6.57 K/9 and 17.5 K%). While he’s still not getting a lot of K’s, his ratios are very desirable.
- Marlins vs LHP at home: 0.270 wOBA (30th), 0.103 (30th) and a 22.2 K% (14th).
- Cubs vs LHP at home: 0.316 wOBA (20th), 0.208 ISO (8th) and a 25.2 K% (25th).
The Marlins game makes me salivate thinking about what Lauer can do. And keep in mind, while that Cubs game looks like trouble, he recently went into Dodger Stadium and held LA to 4 hits, 1 walk and 1 earned run in 6 innings while striking out 6 batters. And I told you to avoid him in that game because the Dodgers light up LHP.
In that same writeup I mention removing his two road starts in Colorado to show you how good his overall numbers were. I’m going to do the same this week. In 6 away games not in Colorado he has a 3.34 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 35 innings (8.49 K/9 and 23.6 K%).
Lauer is pitching well lately and his two matchups next week are something we can take advantage of.
Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 14 & 15 Review
Let’s look back at my previous recommendations for streaming starting pitchers week 14 & 15. Note we have to look back at two weeks since last week’s Straight Cheese was an All Star Break special edition.
|Framber Valdez, HOU||6/26 vs PIT||1||3.00||6||8||1||2||L||18.00||3.00|
|Martin Perez, MIN||6/27 vs TBR||1||7.00||2||3||1||6||ND||2.57||0.57|
|Merrill Kelly, ARI||6/28 @ SFG||1||5.00||3||7||1||2||L||5.40||1.60|
|Matt Strahm, SDP||7/2 vs SFG||1||5.00||7||11||1||6||L||12.60||2.40|
|Dakota Hudson, STL||7/5 @ SFG||1||5.00||3||6||3||6||W||5.40||1.80|
|Cumulative Season Total||31||161.33||89||167||61||145||11 – 12||4.96||1.41|
Remember when I said that my infatuation with Framber had ended? Well, it is officially dead and buried. Overall these were just plain awful weeks.
Here’s a look back at the two start pitcher I recommended back in Week 14.
|Trevor Richards, MIA||6/25 vs WSN||1||5.00||6||7||2||3||L||10.80||1.80|
|Trevor Richards, MIA||6/30 vs PHI||1||5.00||3||6||2||3||L||5.40||1.60|
|Total||2||10.00||9||13||4||6||0 – 2||8.10||1.70|
And Week 15.
|Jeff Samardzija, SFG||7/1 @ SDP||1||8.00||2||5||2||6||W||2.25||0.88|
|Jeff Samardzija, SFG||7/7 vs STL||1||7.00||0||4||0||2||W||0.00||0.57|
|Total||2||15.00||2||9||2||8||2 – 0||1.20||0.73|
|Cumulative Season Total||21||121.33||56||117||28||101||10 – 5||4.15||1.20|
I knew it was risky rolling with Richards and I rolled snake eyes. Luckily Samardzija bailed me out with an excellent two starts to end the 1st half of the season.