Here are projected scores for tonight’s DFS pitchers – July 31, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – DeGrom (NYM)
- My Value Pick today is Hendricks (CHC) in St. Louis
- Righty SP facing Cardinals in STL have averaged
- 26.6 FanDuel ppg (10th Highest in MLB – average SP is 26.3 ppg)
- 13.6 DraftKings ppg (10th(T) Highest in MLB – average SP is 13.6 ppg)
- Cardinals at home vs. RHP have a:
- 0.303 wOBA (8th worst in MLB)
- 0.137 ISO (4th worst in MLB)
- 21.2 K% (11th best in MLB)
- Righty SP facing Cardinals in STL have averaged
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Red Sox, Twins and Astros
- Followers (**) Yarbrough (TBR)
- Small sample size alert! The following pitchers have each faced less than 100 batters this season:
- Urquidy (HOU)
DFS Pitchers – July 31, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Jacob deGrom NYM | @ CHW | $12,000 | 114 | 40.51 | $11,800 | 116 | 22.61 |
| Jose Berrios MIN | @ MIA | $10,400 | 116 | 39.31 | $10,700 | 118 | 21.67 |
| Mike Minor TEX | vs SEA | $9,500 | 101 | 34.82 | $9,900 | 101 | 19.15 |
| Lucas Giolito CHW | vs NYM | $8,800 | 104 | 32.24 | $10,300 | 104 | 17.15 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @ STL | $8,300 | 103 | 29.07 | $9,000 | 103 | 15.21 |
| Jose Urquidy HOU | @ CLE | $8,000 | 101 | 28.50 | $7,000 | 102 | 14.98 |
| Jeff Samardzija SFG | @ PHI | $8,100 | 100 | 26.70 | $8,100 | 101 | 14.04 |
| Brett Anderson OAK | vs MIL | $7,100 | 102 | 27.01 | $5,700 | 103 | 13.67 |
| Miles Mikolas STL | vs CHC | $7,400 | 98 | 25.21 | $7,700 | 98 | 12.82 |
| Rick Porcello BOS | vs TBR | $6,900 | 96 | 22.10 | $6,700 | 96 | 10.57 |
| Wade LeBlanc SEA | @ TEX | $6,000 | 93 | 21.28 | $6,400 | 93 | 10.95 |
| Jordan Lyles MIL | @ OAK | $6,700 | 94 | 21.29 | $6,100 | 94 | 10.48 |
| Sandy Alcantara MIA | vs MIN | $6,300 | 91 | 21.39 | $5,200 | 89 | 10.21 |
| Vince Velasquez PHI | vs SFG | $7,700 | 97 | 20.13 | $7,500 | 98 | 10.32 |
| Zach Plesac CLE | vs HOU | $7,700 | 88 | 19.27 | $7,300 | 85 | 8.95 |
| ** Ryan Yarbrough TBR | @ BOS | $7,600 | 91 | 18.31 | $7,100 | 89 | 9.03 |
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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