Here are projected scores for today’s DFS pitchers – July 3, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Sale (BOS)
- My Value Pick today is Anderson (SFG) versus Padres in SD
- San Diego vs. RH Starters t home have allowed them to average
- 30.2 FanDuel ppg (4th Highest – MLB Average is 26.29 ppg)
- 16.3 DraftKings ppg (5th Highest – MLB Average is 13.55 ppg)
- San Diego vs. RHP at home have a:
- 0.291 wOBA (4th worst in MLB)
- 0.170 ISO (9th worst in MLB)
- 25.5 K% (2nd worst in MLB).
- San Diego vs. RH Starters t home have allowed them to average
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Twins, Dodgers & Astros
- Small sample size alert! Detwiler (CHW), Wilson (ATL), Waguespack (TOR) and Clevinger (CLE) have each faced less than 100 batters this season. Alexander (DET) will be making his MLB debut tonight.
- NOTES
- Alexander (DET) is not available on FanDuel tonight.
DFS Pitchers – July 3, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Chris Sale BOS | @ TOR | $11,200 | 109 | 38.45 | $11,800 | 112 | 22.12 |
| Ross Detwiler CHW | vs DET | $6,000 | 112 | 33.22 | $5,900 | 115 | 18.42 |
| Shaun Anderson SFG | @ SDP | $6,700 | 107 | 30.85 | $6,800 | 109 | 16.61 |
| Walker Buehler LAD | vs ARI | $10,100 | 102 | 29.94 | $10,900 | 102 | 16.04 |
| Mike Leake SEA | vs STL | $8,400 | 102 | 28.78 | $7,500 | 103 | 15.23 |
| Bryse Wilson ATL | vs PHI | $5,700 | 102 | 28.10 | $7,300 | 103 | 14.84 |
| Tyler Alexander DET | @ CHW | – | 104 | 28.97 | $5,700 | 105 | 14.23 |
| Sonny Gray CIN | vs MIL | $7,600 | 102 | 27.94 | $9,200 | 102 | 14.73 |
| Domingo German NYY | @ NYM | $8,100 | 102 | 28.08 | $10,100 | 101 | 14.51 |
| Adam Wainwright STL | @ SEA | $7,700 | 102 | 28.01 | $8,200 | 102 | 14.41 |
| John Means BAL | @ TBR | $8,600 | 106 | 26.82 | $8,400 | 106 | 14.56 |
| Ryne Stanek TBR | vs BAL | $5,500 | 110 | 25.80 | $4,200 | 111 | 14.27 |
| Chris Archer PIT | vs CHC | $8,100 | 99 | 26.14 | $7,700 | 98 | 13.60 |
| Danny Duffy KCR | vs CLE | $7,000 | 101 | 26.58 | $7,100 | 101 | 13.22 |
| Jacob Waguespack TOR | vs BOS | $5,500 | 98 | 25.84 | $4,000 | 98 | 13.25 |
| Yu Darvish CHC | @ PIT | $7,200 | 99 | 24.85 | $8,600 | 98 | 12.39 |
| Jason Vargas NYM | vs NYY | $6,300 | 102 | 24.35 | $8,000 | 100 | 12.65 |
| Jhoulys Chacin MIL | @ CIN | $6,100 | 99 | 24.05 | $5,800 | 100 | 12.40 |
| Nick Pivetta PHI | @ ATL | $6,500 | 96 | 23.95 | $6,200 | 95 | 11.71 |
| Kyle Gibson MIN | @ OAK | $7,100 | 95 | 22.98 | $9,000 | 94 | 11.68 |
| Cal Quantrill SDP | vs SFG | $5,800 | 99 | 21.82 | $5,000 | 101 | 11.16 |
| Griffin Canning LAA | @ TEX | $8,000 | 91 | 21.60 | $8,700 | 90 | 10.58 |
| Merrill Kelly ARI | @ LAD | $8,200 | 90 | 21.63 | $8,300 | 87 | 10.18 |
| Mike Clevinger CLE | @ KCR | $9,000 | 99 | 20.83 | $9,700 | 99 | 10.34 |
| Wade Miley HOU | @ COL | $6,000 | 88 | 20.84 | $7,200 | 86 | 9.84 |
| Mike Fiers OAK | vs MIN | $8,300 | 89 | 20.46 | $8,000 | 87 | 9.99 |
| Peter Lambert COL | vs HOU | $5,500 | 83 | 17.38 | $5,300 | 81 | 8.17 |
| Ariel Jurado TEX | vs LAA | $7,500 | 88 | 16.32 | $6,100 | 86 | 7.66 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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