Here are projected scores for today’s DFS pitchers – July 2, 2019 using FanDuel and DraftKings scoring.
- King of the Hill – Morton (TBR)
- My Value Pick today is Strahm (SDP) at home versus the Giants.
- San Fran vs. LH Starters away have allowed them to average
- 32.7 FanDuel ppg (6th Highest – MLB Average is 26.29 ppg)
- 19.3 DraftKings ppg (3rd Highest – MLB Average is 13.55 ppg)
- San Fran vs. LHP away have a:
- 0.249 wOBA (Worst in MLB)
- 0.110 ISO (Worst in MLB)
- 26.0 K% (7th worst in MLB).
- San Fran vs. LH Starters away have allowed them to average
- Stackables (in order of my preference): Dodgers, Twins & Rockies
- Small sample size alert! Keuchel (ATL), Gallen (MIA) and Suarez (LAA) have each faced less than 100 batters this season. Wojciechowski (BAL) and Urquidy (HOU) will be making their MLB debuts tonight.
- NOTES
- Wojciechowski (BAL) is available on DraftKings but not FanDuel.
- Urquidy (HOU) is available on FanDuel but not DraftKings.
DFS Pitchers – July 2, 2019
| Starting Pitcher | Opp |  |  | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | Salary | Matchup Rating | Projected Score | ||
| Charlie Morton TBR | vs BAL | $10,800 | 109 | 35.62 | $10,600 | 110 | 19.81 |
| Patrick Corbin WSN | vs MIA | $10,600 | 113 | 35.37 | $11,100 | 115 | 19.48 |
| Matthew Boyd DET | @ CHW | $10,000 | 108 | 35.68 | $10,100 | 108 | 19.03 |
| David Price BOS | @ TOR | $8,900 | 107 | 34.29 | $9,300 | 110 | 19.46 |
| Reynaldo Lopez CHW | vs DET | $6,600 | 111 | 33.59 | $5,600 | 114 | 18.00 |
| Matt Strahm SDP | vs SFG | $7,600 | 107 | 31.06 | $6,900 | 110 | 17.65 |
| Jakob Junis KCR | vs CLE | $6,800 | 104 | 30.64 | $7,300 | 105 | 16.08 |
| Tyler Beede SFG | @ SDP | $6,400 | 106 | 29.92 | $6,200 | 108 | 16.01 |
| Dallas Keuchel ATL | vs PHI | $6,200 | 98 | 29.77 | $8,100 | 99 | 16.02 |
| Asher Wojciechowski BAL | @ TBR | – | 103 | 29.43 | $6,900 | 103 | 15.80 |
| Mike Minor TEX | vs LAA | $10,800 | 95 | 29.49 | $10,500 | 93 | 15.48 |
| Jack Flaherty STL | @ SEA | $7,900 | 103 | 28.44 | $7,600 | 103 | 15.09 |
| Trevor Bauer CLE | @ KCR | $11,600 | 99 | 28.62 | $11,600 | 99 | 14.86 |
| Tanner Roark CIN | vs MIL | $7,700 | 101 | 28.24 | $8,500 | 101 | 14.78 |
| James Paxton NYY | @ NYM | $8,700 | 100 | 27.53 | $8,900 | 99 | 14.55 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @ PIT | $9,400 | 98 | 26.88 | $9,000 | 97 | 13.57 |
| Trent Thornton TOR | vs BOS | $7,300 | 98 | 26.17 | $7,500 | 98 | 13.56 |
| Jake Odorizzi MIN | @ OAK | $9,000 | 98 | 25.93 | $9,900 | 97 | 13.68 |
| Joe Musgrove PIT | vs CHC | $8,300 | 98 | 26.14 | $5,900 | 98 | 13.33 |
| Aaron Nola PHI | @ ATL | $9,200 | 97 | 26.46 | $10,700 | 96 | 13.15 |
| Chase Anderson MIL | @ CIN | $6,900 | 100 | 25.01 | $5,300 | 101 | 13.32 |
| ** Wade LeBlanc SEA | vs STL | $6,900 | 100 | 24.70 | $5,800 | 101 | 13.14 |
| Zac Gallen MIA | @ WSN | $8,000 | 99 | 23.89 | $7,900 | 98 | 11.95 |
| Zack Wheeler NYM | vs NYY | $9,100 | 95 | 24.03 | $9,500 | 93 | 11.55 |
| Ross Stripling LAD | vs ARI | $6,500 | 100 | 22.88 | $7,800 | 99 | 11.80 |
| German Marquez COL | vs HOU | $7,100 | 86 | 23.09 | $8,700 | 84 | 11.65 |
| Daniel Mengden OAK | vs MIN | $7,000 | 89 | 19.57 | $7,100 | 87 | 9.43 |
| Jose Suarez LAA | @ TEX | $6,500 | 94 | 19.45 | $8,500 | 93 | 9.21 |
| Taylor Clarke ARI | @ LAD | $5,700 | 87 | 18.46 | $6,400 | 85 | 8.24 |
| Jose Urquidy HOU | @ COL | $5,500 | 92 | 16.31 | – | 90 | 6.31 |
** Indicates that the pitcher listed will follow an “Opener”
My Method
Matchup Rating is meant to show how the pitcher’s matchup relates to league average. A rating of 100 means that this matchup is neither good nor bad to the pitcher. A matchup over 100 favors the pitcher and conversely, a matchup up less than 100 favors the hitters. It takes into account:
- The pitcher’s wOBA, ISO and K%
- The opposing lineup’s wOBA, ISO and K% versus RHP/LHP
- Home/away splits
- Ballpark Factor
- Fantasy points allowed to starting pitchers by opposing lineup (link)
If you are looking for bats to stack take a look at the pitchers at the bottom of this list and where the Matchup Rating is below 90. While not always the case, typically when a pitcher scores a low total (perhaps even negative) that means they are probably getting lit up by the opposing lineup.
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